2009 NFL Week 7 Beatpath Picks

Time for the Week 7 picks!

All methods were 10-4 last week – however, I picked Seattle, so I was 9-5, and thus only two ahead of ITB for the season. The BeatPicks were 3-1, or 11-2 for the season. There are five BeatPicks this week, and I’m not making any personal picks this week.

Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) means you might want to consider the home team.

  Isaacson-Tarbell Beatpaths Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths
Record So Far 57-33 64-26 63-27
Last Week 10-4 10-4 10-4
Green Bay (3-2) at Cleveland (1-5): Maybe someone can fill me in on Green Bay – I have it drummed into my head that Green Bay is supposed to be much better than they apparently have been this last season and a half. But at any rate, they are still unanimously favored ahead of Cleveland. GB GB GB
San Francisco (3-2) at Houston (3-3): Not quite sure what to make of Houston given their win over Cincinnati, but I’m not going to personally pick against a BeatPick. Besides, I don’t think I’ve seen Houston string together two out-performances in a row. SF SF* SF
San Diego (2-3) at Kansas City (1-5): Rather than jump on the bandwagons that say Dallas and Washington must be pretty bad to have trouble with Kansas City, I’m jumping on the bandwagon that says Kansas City is officially a dangerous team. The schadenfreudist in me is very curious to see what would happen if Kansas City pulls this out – but once again, I can’t personally pick against a BeatPick. SD SD* SD
Indianapolis (5-0) at St. Louis (0-6): I’m personally going to pick St. Louis in this game. Just kidding. IND IND* IND
New England (4-2) at Tampa Bay (0-6): Ahoy guv’nor! What a spectacle this should be. NE NE* NE
Minnesota (6-0) at Pittsburgh (4-2): I think the conventional-wisdom people have the same problem with Pittsburgh that I do with Green Bay. On the other hand, they have Polamalu back. On the other hand, Minnesota seems to be on more of an escaping streak than a winning streak. But I’m too much on the fence to go against the official pick here. MIN MIN MIN
Buffalo (2-4) at Carolina (2-3): This is the closest pick of week – I’ve personally been lucky with Carolina, but this week the system is in agreement with me – a unanimous pick for Carolina (and not by much). CAR CAR CAR
NY Jets (3-3) at Oakland (2-4): Two weirdly inconsistent teams. The NY Jets, just like last season, have a good team that is overlooked due to their quarterback drama. Same with Oakland, except that they’re a bad team. Once in a while they can pull it together, though, so who knows what will happen this week. NY Jets have the edge due to a more disciplined history. NYJ NYJ NYJ
Chicago (3-2) at Cincinnati (4-2): We actually have a disagreeing pick here – Beatpaths picks Chicago, while the official pick is Cincinnati. CIN CHI CIN
Atlanta (4-1) at Dallas (3-2): All three methods agree that Atlanta is the clear pick here, based off of season performance so far. This is a great opportunity for Dallas to turn their season around. ATL ATL ATL
New Orleans (5-0) at Miami (2-3): Miami has a lot of room in their possible rankings, and this game could be closer than expected. Still, a unanimous pick for New Orleans. NO NO NO
Arizona (3-2) at NY Giants (5-1): Another opportunity for a unexpectedly close game. The beatpath graph shows that the NY Giants haven’t really established themselves. NYG NYG NYG
Philadelphia (3-2) at Washington (2-4): This is a much clearer game – Philadelphia has a beatpath to Washington, making this a BeatPick, and it’s a unanimous pick for Philadelphia. PHI PHI* PHI

9 Responses to 2009 NFL Week 7 Beatpath Picks

  1. The Packers are struggling because their o-line is a revolving door: Rodgers has been sacked 25 times already this season.

    Their running game hasn’t done much, either. Grant is averaging 69 yards/game, and hasn’t had a run longer than 22 yards.

    They’re doing as well as they have been because of outstanding play by Aaron Rodgers (104 passer rating), and a solid defense (#8 on yards allowed).

    D∈T

  2. Thurhame says:

    Green Bay just hasn’t been the same since they lost Favre. (Did I spell that right?)

    Steelers won! Yay! This loops away their loss to CHI, leaving them without any in-paths. Furthermore, both of their next two games (after the bye next week) give them a chance to regain PIT->SD.

    Incidentally, PIT->MIN->GB->CHI->PIT breaks one of the HOU->CIN loops, restoring CIN->GB and CHI->SEA->JAC->HOU.

  3. Thurhame says:

    HOU->SF has much less effect than one would expect. Because of PIT->MIN, SF->ARI->HOU is simply replaced by SF->SEA->JAC->HOU and ARI->SEA->JAC->HOU. ARI sheds beatpaths from DEN, NE, ATL, MIN and SF, leaving IND as the only team above it. However, since ARI->SEA is now Arizona’s only arrow on the graph, the only effect on other teams is that SF and teams above it (DEN, NE, ATL and MIN) no longer have beatpaths to ARI (only). Furthermore, the only effect on EdgePower, besides ARI rising, is the removal of two games only (SF->ARI and ARI->HOU) from all affected teams’ scores.

  4. Thurhame says:

    Buffalo defeats Carolina – the only upset I successfully predicted. (I also predicted CHI->CIN. Oops.) Not much happens; Buffalo gets a little distance from the bottom, while the Panthers are buried even more deeply. As expected from the ‘closest pick of the week’.

  5. Thurhame says:

    With the week’s fourth upset DAL, NYG and NO all get a major boost. The Falcons continue their slow fall from power.

  6. ThunderThumbs says:

    Sheesh – only one game is within ten points so far!

  7. Tom says:

    I wonder how all the polarized blowout scores this season will affect the weighted graphs?

  8. doktarr says:

    Just guessing, but I would assume that in iterative, HOU->SF is dropped with almost nothing else getting dropped. Arizona probably sheds its loss to SF as well, but that’s due in part to the ARI->NYG->DAL->ATL->SF path.

  9. Green Bay just hasn’t been the same since they lost Favre.

    Coincidence. Aaron Rodgers has done a very good job as QB. The problem has mostly been on the defensive side of the ball–there’s a reason the Packers fired the entire defensive coaching staff after last season.

    Rodgers may be a bit of a drop-off from Favre, but some of that is just lack of experience, which he’s getting more of every game he plays.

    D∈T

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