Hello everyone, Tom here with my post, getting things done at the last minute. Nothing like grading 40 atrocious midterms to suck the time right out of your week. Luckily, I found an extra hour from the switch away from daylight savings. I’ll keep it short and sweet.
Stability & Variance
The Week 7 rankings shifted around a good deal last week, but not quite as much as the week before. Given the number of upsets, the amount of change to the ranks is not that bad.
An interesting point of comparison is between Week 7 and Week 4. The raw number of ranking changes was just fewer in Week 7 than in Week 4 (113 vs. 112), but the variance in Week 7 was much higher (7.75 vs. 9.31). What this means is that in Week 4, most teams were moving several ranks, and there were only a very few big moves. In Week 7, most teams were not moving much, but a minority of teams had big moves—teams like Cincinnati’s rise from 17 to 6 and San Francisco’s fall from 8 to 20.
TT has already given this week’s official Beatpaths picks. Below are the unofficial rankings of how much ‘confidence’ the system has in making each of the picks:
(out of 100)
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results of the picks as they come in.