2009 NFL Week 11 Picks

Time for the Week 11 picks!

Carolina and Miami both have the same record, so IT picks the home team, Carolina. Beatpaths also picks Carolina, which means the ITB pick is Carolina – a unanimous pick. It’s not a BeatPick, and I’m not going to personally pick Miami. Carolina it is!

Update: Now for the rest of the picks…

Beatpaths was 9-6 last week, leading all variants. ITB was 8-7, and IT was 7-8. I was 2-1 on my personal picks, so I’m two ahead of ITB for the season (matching Beatpaths). The BeatPicks were 5-3, or 28-11 for the season. There are five BeatPicks this week, and I am personally picking San Francisco and Denver.

Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) means you might want to consider overruling in favor of the home team.

  Isaacson-Tarbell Beatpaths Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths
Record So Far 86-58 98-46 96-48
Last Week 7-8 9-6 8-7
Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5): The teams had the same record (and in fact, had had the same record for the entire season, as Adam Schefter pointed out), so IT picked the home team, Carolina. Beatpaths also had Carolina ranked slightly ahead, so Carolina was the unanimous pick. CAR CAR CAR
New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8): Last week we had a #1 at #31, and this week we have a #1 at #32, the most extreme game possible. That said, the flatness of the graph – 73.68 @ 32.24 – means it’s not as lopsided as it could be. But, it is a unanimous pick and a BeatPick. IND IND* IND
Atlanta (5-4) at NY Giants (5-4): Despite the closeness in record, Beatpaths has Atlanta ranked comfortably ahead of the NY Giants. Since IT reverts to the home team, ITB picks the beatpaths pick. NYG ATL ATL
Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1): Minnesota doesn’t have a beatpath to Seattle, but they’re ranked many slots ahead. This is a unanimous pick for Minnesota. MIN MIN MIN
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7): Pittsburgh doesn’t have a beatpath to Kansas City, but is ranked comfortably ahead. A unanimous pick for Pittsburgh. PIT PIT PIT
Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4): Jacksonville is ranked (just barely) in the top half of the league, while Buffalo appears worse than the past few seasons. Another unanimous pick, for Jacksonville. JAC JAC JAC
San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4): These two teams are fairly closely ranked, but Green Bay has a slight advantage according to all the methods. A unanimous pick for Green Bay. I will personally pick San Francisco. GB GB GB
Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8): Despite Cleveland’s trials this year, they’re in only the third tier of the beatpath graph. They’ve just had a murderous schedule this year. IT throws its hands up in the air and picks the home team, but beatpaths has Cleveland ranked ahead of Detroit, so ITB picks Cleveland. DET CLE CLE
Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3): Most of Washington’s games have been wiped away due to the defeat of Denver. Even aside from Orton’s injury and Washington’s strange fake field goal, Washington played much better than they had earlier in the season. That said, they still have only really proven themselves better than Tampa Bay. This is a unanimous pick for Dallas. DAL DAL DAL
Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4): This feels like it could be a trap game, but I think Manning will be too professional for that. A unanimous pick for Indianapolis. IND IND IND
Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8): One of the few BeatPicks this week, a unanimous pick for Arizona. ARI ARI* ARI
Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7): Cincinnati has a very long beatpath to Oakland, and I don’t think they’d play into Oakland’s strengths like Philadelphia did. There might be marginal improvement due to Bruce Gradkowski playing quarterback, though. CIN CIN* CIN
NY Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3): New England has a beatpath to the NY Jets through Atlanta, plus motivation after losing to the Jets earlier this season. A unanimous pick and a BeatPick. NE NE* NE
San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3): Denver’s beatwin over San Diego has been swallowed up, and San Diego will be playing for the division lead. I’m fearing for the worst here. I will personally pick Denver, though – I almost didn’t, but then saw that Denver is ranked pretty closely and qualifies for the (x). DEN SD(x) SD
Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5): Philadelphia has been rising quickly, and is ranked nine slots of ahead of Chicago. This is a unanimous pick for Philadelphia. PHI PHI PHI
Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4):Houston is a unanimous pick and a BeatPick due to their previous victory over Tennessee earlier this season. I’m tempted to pick Tennessee every week until they lose again, but I think I won’t overrule a BeatPick. HOU HOU* HOU

3 Responses to 2009 NFL Week 11 Picks

  1. doktarr says:

    Score one for iterative!

    I think the only other pick where they are going to disagree is Denver vs. San Diego. IT and ITB will also pick Denver there, though, so it’s standard beatpath versus everybody else. Vegas likes San Diego, though, thanks to the Kyle Orton injury.

  2. Kenneth says:

    What happened this week?

  3. ThunderThumbs says:

    I’ve totally been in a funk about Denver – their injury situation isn’t THAT bad. It’s the sort of thing that makes me reshuffle some of my sense of what the nfl even is. I didn’t think a team’s quality level could vary that much within a season, using pretty much the same personnel and scheme and coaching staff. Makes me think there’s some sort of locker room drama going on.

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