Analyzing the Rankings – Week 10

A big week for the rankings! A significant reshuffle on par with Week 6. As opposed to previous weeks in which only a couple teams had big moves in the rankings, in Week 10 we have six different teams moving ten or more ranks. Arizona and Washington shoot up, while Buffalo, Denver, Miami, and Oakland collapse.


Even though the aggregate number of rank changes this week is less than in Week 6, the variance of rank changes in Week 10 is much higher than in Week 6. This means that in Week 10 there are more teams moving very few spaces and a significant number of teams moving 10+ spaces. In Week 6 all teams shifted ranks, without as many outliers either moving 0-1 spaces or 10+ spaces.

Pick Confidence – Week 11

With the new, flatter graph, the system’s confidence in making picks is lower this week than in previous weeks. Oddly, last week’s picks suffered the most in the mid-range, rather than in the low confidence range. We’ll see how this week’s flatter, more ambiguous graph performs.

Matchup
(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”
(out of 100)
EdgePower comparison
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result
New Orleans-Tampa Bay 36.18 68.42-32.24
Cincinnati-Oakland 30.26 64.47-34.21
Arizona-St. Louis 21.71 57.24-35.53
New England-NY Jets 21.05 59.87-38.82
Minnesota-Seattle 19.74 63.82-44.08
Indianapolis-Baltimore 17.1 73.68-56.58
Pittsburgh-Kansas City 14.47 56.58-42.11
Jacksonville-Buffalo 9.21 50.66-41.45
Atlanta-NY Giants 7.24 56.58-49.34
Cleveland-Detroit 6.58 42.11-35.53
Houston-Tennessee 3.95 50.66-46.71
Philadelphia-Chicago 3.94 51.97-48.03
Carolina-Miami 3.29 48.68-45.39
Green Bay-San Francisco 1.32 50.66-49.34
Dallas-Washington 1.31 51.97-50.66
San Diego-Denver 0.65 51.97-51.32

The match-up that stands out most to me is how closely the system calls the Dallas-Washington division rivalry game now that Washington has beaten Denver. As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results as they roll in.

One Response to Analyzing the Rankings – Week 10

  1. […] Last week’s picks performed as we would expect, with about twice as many missed picks in the low confidence range as in the high confidence range. Because the graph is more vertical this week than the previous week, there are more high confidence picks this week. […]

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