Comments on: 2009 NFL Week 11 Beatpath Graph

By: doktarr

doktarr — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:23:03 +0000

Right, the games we consider flukes aren’t necessarily obvious flukes from the algorithm’s perspective. According to the graph, there just isn’t a lot of data conflicting with that Oakland loss. I mean really, look at the Eagles’ schedule. They’ve beaten the Bucs, Chiefs, ’skins (twice), Panthers, and Bears. Those are all bad teams. I happen to think the Eagles are pretty good, but from a beatpaths perspective, they’re a team that’s beaten a bunch of bad teams, and the Giants.

The easiest chances to shed that Oakland loss for the Eagles come on week 14. If they beat the Giants again, then they can eliminate the Oakland loss. Also, the Redskins play Oakland that week, and if the ’skins win, that generates another loop involving Oakland that get the Eagles off the hook.

If they can’t pull it off then, then they can shed the loss by beating either the Broncos, or by splitting the season series with the Cowboys. And if they fail at all of those… why shouldn’t they be ranked below the Raiders?

By: The MOOSE

The MOOSE — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 02:15:40 +0000

Because Iterative sees these two loops

PHI → NYG → DAL → PHI
PHI → NYG → OAK → PHI

and considers the PHI → NYG game to be the fluke

By: Tom

Tom — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 01:26:18 +0000

Moose,

I thought this was the exact type of eventuality that iterative was meant to remedy—i.e. making sure that one ‘flukey’ game doesn’t persist for weeks on end. Standard got rid of it pretty quickly in comparison. Why does it show up in iterative and not in standard?

By: The MOOSE

The MOOSE — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:39:15 +0000

TT: Yes I use graphviz. The team logos I made myself in Photoshop with a trial license which has expired. Otherwise I would have updated the Lions’ new logo.

Tom: Yeah, there are always going to be teams that are out of place. Especially in the NFL with so few games, the schedule doesn’t give us a whole lot to work with. One or two games can have a large influence. PHI can shed the BeatLoss to OAK though if they beat DAL or NYG in the rematch games.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:52:23 +0000

Pretty interesting that Standard, Iterative, and Weighted all agree on the top two teams: Indy and NO.

Strange that iterative has preserved Oakland’s win over Philly for four weeks now. Can the Eagles credibly be ranked as the 22nd team in the NFL?

By: ThunderThumbs

ThunderThumbs — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 05:34:06 +0000

Yep, thanks Moose. Do you use graphviz for your graphs, too? The team image icons are really nice.

By: The MOOSE

The MOOSE — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:26:00 +0000

Jason: The graph is very automatic. With graphvis, you can tell it relationships…

ARI->SEA [color=blue];

Define the nodes…

MIN [fillcolor="#b3e2cd"][color="blue"];

Even force certain teams to be on the same level…

{rank=same; DAL PIT NE NO}

There are many options to graphvis, which you can find in their documentation. But the purpose of the application is to draw graphs without having to figure it out yourself. There may or may not be controls to fine tune a graph, but doing so would reduce the automation in our programs and require weekly tweaking that can be a pain.

By: The MOOSE

The MOOSE — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:11:50 +0000

Fair enough doktarr, graphs are up. No commentary again this week. I’ll be moved this weekend, but having internet won’t be guaranteed so there’s a chance next week will be late too.

By: Jason R

Jason R — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 02:51:11 +0000

How automatic is the graph? Look at New England, Tennessee, and new England’s arrow to Atlanta. Wouldn’t it be more efficient (is that the word?) to have Tennessee a little more to the left, and have New England’s arrow to Atlanta pass on the right of Tennessee?

By: ThunderThumbs

ThunderThumbs — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:14:30 +0000

There’s all sorts of tiny things you can do with graphviz and I keep experimenting. I think what I did this time is rather than having graphviz create a medium sized graph, I made it create a really huge one, and then I’m just letting other processes resize it down later. Seems to work a lot better.