November 25th, 2009
2009 NFL Week 12 Picks
Time for the Week 12 picks! Happy Dead Turkey day!
Isaacson-Tarbell was 11-5 last week, leading all variants. Beatpaths and ITB were both 10-6. I was 0-2 on my personal picks, so I’m now even with ITB for the season. The BeatPicks were 3-2, or 31-13 for the season. There are nine BeatPicks this week, and I am personally picking Tennessee and Baltimore.
Once again, the beatpicks are: If there is a beatpath, pick the favored team. Otherwise, pick the team with the best win-loss record. If they’re the same, pick who beatpaths favors in the beatpath rankings. An (x) means you might want to consider overruling in favor of the home team.
| Isaacson-Tarbell | Beatpaths | Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths | |
| Record So Far | 97-63 | 108-52 | 106-54 |
| Last Week | 11-5 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8): Green Bay has a beatpath to Detroit so this is a unanimous pick and a BeatPick. | GB | GB* | GB |
| Oakland (3-7) at Dallas (7-3): Dallas has a beatpath to Oakland so this is another unanimous pick and a BeatPick. Dallas has been having trouble with the AFC West this season, though. | DAL | DAL* | DAL |
| NY Giants (6-4) at Denver (6-4): Isaacson-Tarbell picks Denver, the home team, since both teams have the same record. Beatpaths has the NY Giants ranked comfortably ahead of Denver, though, so they are the ITB pick. | DEN | NYG | NYG |
| Seattle (3-7) at St. Louis (1-9): Seattle has a beatwin over St. Louis, so this counts as a BeatPick and another unanimous pick. Their rankings are pretty close, though – pretty close (but not quite) to where you might want to consider the home team instead. | SEA | SEA* | SEA |
| Washington (3-7) at Philadelphia (6-4): Philadelphia has a beatpath to Washington, so this is another unanimous pick and a BeatPick. | PHI | PHI* | PHI |
| Carolina (4-6) at NY Jets (4-6): Identical records, so Isaacson-Tarbell picks the NY Jets, the home team. Beatpaths has Carolina ranked exactly one slot ahead of the NY Jets, so Carolina is the ITB pick, although it is within the three ranking slots where you might want to consider the home team instead. | NYJ | CAR(x) | CAR |
| Indianapolis (10-0) at Houston (5-5): Indianapolis has a direct beatwin over Houston, which also happens to be Houston’s only beatloss. Indianapolis is the unanimous pick and a BeatPick, although I can’t help but wonder if Houston might pull this one out. Still, I won’t overrule the pick. | IND | IND* | IND |
| Cleveland (1-9) at Cincinnati (7-3): Cincinnati has a beatpath to Cleveland (through Detroit!) so Cincinnati is the unanimous pick and the BeatPick. | CIN | CIN* | CIN |
| Miami (5-5) at Buffalo (3-7): Miami has a beatwin over Buffalo, so this is a unanimous pick and a BeatPick for Miami. | MIA | MIA* | MIA |
| Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5): Atlanta has several beatpaths to Tampa Bay, making this a unanimous pick and a BeatPick for Atlanta. | ATL | ATL* | ATL |
| Jacksonville (6-4) at San Francisco (4-6): Jacksonville and San Francisco have been going in opposite directions recently – there is no beatpath relationship here, but Jacksonville is ranked ahead of San Francisco, and has the better record, too. A unanimous pick for Jacksonville. | JAC | JAC | JAC |
| Kansas City (3-7) at San Diego (7-3): San Diego has a couple of beatpaths to Kansas City through the NFC East, so this is a unanimous pick and a BeatPick for San Diego. | SD | SD* | SD |
| Arizona (7-3) at Tennessee (4-6): No beatpath relationship between these two teams, but Arizona is ranked comfortably ahead of Tennessee. It’s a unanimous pick for Arizona, but I’m going to personally pick Tennessee, and might pick them every week until they lose. | ARI | ARI | ARI |
| Chicago (4-6) at Minnesota (9-1): There’s actually no beatpath relationship between Chicago and Minnesota, but Minnesota is comfortably favored. A unanimous pick for Minnesota. | MIN | MIN | MIN |
| Pittsburgh (6-4) at Baltimore (5-5): Isaacson-Tarbell picks Pittsburgh due to the better record. Beatpaths has Baltimore ranked slightly ahead, but in this case ITB sticks with IT because of the better record. I will personally pick Baltimore because of them being the home team. | PIT | BAL | PIT |
| New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0): It’s a no-brainer as far as the pick systems go – New Orleans has the better record, they’re ranked higher according to the graph (New England can be ranked as high as #2, but they’re #6 and New Orleans is #2), and New Orleans is even the home team. It’s hard to pick against New England, though. Still, I won’t overrule it. | NO | NO | NO |
November 28th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Iterative picked Denver, although it was a non-path pick. Iterative also picks the Jets and the Steelers.
From a “rearrange the graph” perspective, the most interesting game might be Arizona at Tennessee. There’s no beatpath relationship, and TEN semi-upset would give them a path to 10 more teams. Same deal with Jacksonville at San Fran – a San Fran semi-upset would give them a path to five teams.
November 29th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
sweet, both semi-upsets happened. That should make for a very vertical graph next week, unless the Miami-Buffalo upset erases more paths than I expect.