Ranking Analysis – Week 11

Not a tremendous shake-up in the rankings this week. Only two big moves: Washington drops back down following a one-week stint in the middle of the pack; and, the NY Giants regain their stature as a top team after defeating Atlanta.


Overall the changes to the rankings seem about par with those made in Week 7. A couple significant re-assessments, but most teams stay within their orbit.

Pick Confidence – Thanksgiving

Last week’s picks performed as we would expect, with about twice as many missed picks in the low confidence range as in the high confidence range. Because the graph is more vertical this week than the previous week, there are more high confidence picks this week.

Matchup
(Winner-Loser)
“Confidence”
(out of 100)
EdgePower comparison
(predicted winner – predicted loser)
Result
Atlanta-Tampa Bay 46.84 56.84-10.00
Cincinnati-Cleveland 30.53 58.42-27.89
Indianapolis-Houston 28.42 78.42-50.00
Dallas-Oakland 26.84 64.21-37.37
San Diego-Kansas City 25.27 68.95-43.68
Miami-Buffalo 25.26 47.89-22.63
Philadelphia-Washington 23.16 56.32-33.16
Green Bay-Detroit 20.53 54.74-34.21
Arizona-Tennessee 17.9 66.32-48.42
Minnesota-Chicago 15.85 62.11-46.26
NY Giants-Denver 10 62.11-52.11
New Orleans-New England 8.43 72.11-63.68
Seattle-St. Louis 7.37 42.11-34.74
Jacksonville-San Francisco 6.31 52.63-46.32
Carolina-NY Jets 0.52 41.05-40.53
Baltimore-Pittsburgh 0.52 52.63-52.11

The New Orleans–New England is about as hyped as the Indianapolis–New England game was two weeks ago. Beatpaths gives New Orleans the edge, but not a large one. The other interesting matchup is the Baltimore–Pittsburgh division rivalry, in which Beatpaths gives the 5-5 Ravens the edge over the 6-4 Steelers.

As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results as they roll in.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

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