Hey everyone, Tom here—a bit behind this week, but about 240 undergraduates needed their final exams graded. The two big movers this week were Houston (for the third week in a row) and Miami.
The number of rank changes this week (112) is the same as Weeks 4 & 7, but the variance is much higher this week than those previous weeks. That means less movement overall, except for the big-moving outliers.
Pick Confidence – Week 15
Last week pick confidence worked out normally: the high confidence picks did about twice as well as the low confidence picks. With a much taller graph this week, the EdgePower scores are much more disparate, producing a lot of higher confidence picks.
| Matchup (Winner-Loser) |
“Confidence” (out of 100) |
EdgePower comparison (predicted winner – predicted loser) |
Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England-Buffalo | 56.67 | 75.42-18.75 | ✓ |
| Philadelphia-San Francisco | 36.25 | 77.08-40.83 | ✓ |
| Houston-St. Louis | 31.67 | 56.67-25.00 | ✓ |
| Arizona-Detroit | 29.58 | 55.83-26.25 | ✓ |
| San Diego-Cincinnati | 27.08 | 82.08-55.00 | ✓ |
| Seattle-Tampa Bay | 23.75 | 32.50-8.75 | ✗ |
| Indianapolis-Jacksonville | 22.92 | 83.75-60.83 | ✓ |
| Miami-Tennessee | 22.09 | 66.67-44.58 | ✗ |
| Minnesota-Carolina | 19.16 | 63.33-44.17 | ✗ |
| Denver-Oakland | 12.08 | 51.25-39.17 | ✗ |
| New Orleans-Dallas | 10 | 85.42-75.42 | ✗ |
| Atlanta-NY Jets | 9.58 | 70.00-60.42 | ✓ |
| Cleveland-Kansas City | 7.5 | 21.25-13.75 | ✓ |
| NY Giants-Washington | 7.5 | 48.75-41.25 | ✓ |
| Baltimore-Chicago | 4.58 | 41.25-36.67 | ✓ |
| Green Bay-Pittsburgh | 2.09 | 49.17-47.08 | ✗ |
As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results as they roll in.