I agree that the Jets will probably be more judicious with their blitzing than they usually are against the Colts. And the talent of their corners means that they’re really going to need Clark and Collie to step up. But still, I’d put the Colts as at least 3:1 favorites.

For all the talk about Colts O versus Jets D, I suspect the game will largely be decided on the other side of the ball, and by the Jets return game against the Colts return coverage.

Against the Chargers the Jets blitzed a great deal, and were effective not simply because of the pressure, but also because they use press corners rather than have them play deep. This did a good deal to mitigate the quick dump-off or slant pass. I think Peyton has a wider range of receivers to go to, but I don’t think Rex Ryan is mindless about blitzing either. The Jets (like the Saints D) will often show one thing and do another, generating turnovers/sacks by unexpectedly dropping back from a blitz, or by blitzing a safety or corner out of nowhere. Even Peyton’s famous skills at reading defenses and adjusting can’t always account for that.

Anyway, this reminds me I just read a decent article on Peyton vs. The Blitz today: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704320104575015162979275340.html

The Chargers have a pretty good pass defense and a pretty bad run defense. The Colts are fairly balanced on defense – their run defense is much stronger than the Chargers’ run defense. This means the Jets will have a harder time grinding it out on the ground than they did against the Chargers.

(Note that the Chargers’ poor run defense isn’t very relevant when they play the Colts, who have a terrible running offense this year. So their worst weakness is masked when they play the Colts.)

The Chargers passing offense is highly vertical and relies on getting their big play receivers far down the field and taking advantage of mismatches. This plays into the Jets defense’s hands, as they have one of the three best lockdown corners in the league (possibly the best) and they love to blitz, which is great at disrupting relatively slow-developing passing plays.

The Colts, by contrast, have a spread-the-ball philosophy that is rivalled only by the Saints, and continually exploit whatever the weakest defensive spot is. Furthermore, Manning is the hardest QB to blitz successfully in the game – probably the second best ever after Marino. If the Jets overload blitz a lot, Manning is only too happy to hit the underneath receiver in the vacated spot.

The teams that have given the Colts trouble defensively (Chargers, Steelers and Pats back in the day) do so mostly by getting effective pressure with 4 defenders and dropping everyone else into coverage. The Jets defense is very talented, and it’s possible that they can play this style and be successful. But I don’t believe they can be successful with their typical high-pressure style for four quarters against Manning and those receivers.

I assume that’s some sarcasm there, but I think Marshall could still be a big help to the Ravens, while TO wouldn’t bring a lot. I just said TO because it seems more likely (to me) that they go after him than Marshall. And I’d be sorry to see Ed Reed leave, but it’s his own damn fault he messes up interceptions–carrying the ball way out from his body, lateraling all the time…he’s bound to lose them.

Since we here at Beatpaths believe in the transitive property, I think the Jets have a better chance than most people think. San Diego usually beats Indy in the playoffs, and the Jets just beat San Diego’s high-powered passing offense. San Deigo and Indy both have lopsided offenses: heavy passing, but terrible running game. I think the Jets have a solid chance.

As far as the Ravens, why not get *both* TO and Marshall? Donté Stallworth will be reinstated soon too! What could go wrong? The biggest threat to the Ravens is whether or not Ed Reed will retire because of his neck. Shame his two interceptions didn’t work out on Sunday—he’s one of the most exciting players to watch.