January 30th, 2010
2009 NFL Conference Beatpath Graph
Not many changes here since there were only two games. We’ve got both winners fairly high up in the graph. It looks like we’ll have New Orleans very slightly favored over Indianapolis. However, if you ignore the Week 16 and 17 results for both teams, then Indianapolis would be favored. Loops are after the jump.
Removing CHI split from MIN Removing GB split from ARI Removing DEN split from KC Removing OAK split from KC Removing NO split from CAR Removing ATL split from CAR Removing DEN split from OAK Removing TB split from NO Removing NYJ split from NE Removing MIA split from NE Removing BAL split from NE Removing SF split from SEA Removing DEN split from SD Removing PIT split from BAL Removing TEN split from JAC Removing NYJ split from BUF Removing MIA split from BUF Removing CLE split from PIT Removing IND split from NYJ Removing HOU split from TEN Shrinking circle length to 3 35 Circles... Loop: WAS=>STL=>DET=>WAS Loop: JAC=>HOU=>SEA=>JAC Loop: JAC=>HOU=>MIA=>JAC Loop: JAC=>HOU=>NE=>JAC Loop: JAC=>BUF=>IND=>JAC Loop: ARI=>HOU=>SF=>ARI Loop: HOU=>SF=>JAC=>HOU Loop: HOU=>MIA=>NYJ=>HOU Loop: NYG=>WAS=>DEN=>NYG Loop: NYG=>DAL=>PHI=>NYG Loop: NYG=>DAL=>NO=>NYG Loop: NYG=>OAK=>PHI=>NYG Loop: CHI=>PIT=>GB=>CHI Loop: ARI=>MIN=>SF=>ARI Loop: MIN=>CIN=>PIT=>MIN Loop: MIA=>NYJ=>TEN=>MIA Loop: MIA=>NYJ=>SD=>MIA Loop: WAS=>OAK=>PHI=>WAS Loop: TB=>GB=>DAL=>TB Loop: BUF=>IND=>TEN=>BUF Loop: BUF=>IND=>HOU=>BUF Loop: BUF=>IND=>NE=>BUF Loop: KC=>PIT=>SD=>KC Loop: SD=>OAK=>PIT=>SD Loop: SD=>CIN=>PIT=>SD Loop: BAL=>SD=>CIN=>BAL Loop: CLE=>OAK=>CIN=>CLE Loop: DEN=>CIN=>PIT=>DEN Loop: BAL=>DEN=>CIN=>BAL Loop: DEN=>DAL=>PHI=>DEN Loop: DEN=>DAL=>WAS=>DEN Loop: BAL=>OAK=>CIN=>BAL Loop: CAR=>MIN=>DAL=>CAR Loop: CAR=>NYG=>DAL=>CAR Loop: MIN=>DAL=>NO=>MIN Done Shrinking circle length to 5 Shrinking circle length to 4 Shrinking circle length to 3 1 Circles... Loop: NYG=>DAL=>PHI=>NYG Done Shrinking circle length to 5 Shrinking circle length to 4 5 Circles... Loop: ARI=>JAC=>NYJ=>CAR=>ARI Loop: JAC=>NYJ=>CIN=>CLE=>JAC Loop: JAC=>HOU=>CIN=>CLE=>JAC Loop: ARI=>NYG=>ATL=>SF=>ARI Loop: NYJ=>CIN=>PIT=>MIA=>NYJ Done Shrinking circle length to 5 1 Circles... Loop: SEA=>DET=>CLE=>BUF=>TB=>SEA Done
January 30th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Wait…New Orleans and Indy both have a beatpath to NE (and thus share every team under NE). Indy also has beatpaths to Den (above NE), Hou, and Jac, while NO only has an additional beatpath to Phi.
And yet NO is favored?
February 2nd, 2010 at 8:43 pm
The rankings are based on edgepower, which is determined by ALL of the paths that survive loops–even the redundant ones. Those redundant edges are taken out of the graph for clarity when it’s put on the site, but they’re still taken into account when calculating the rankings.
Basically, teams are rewarded for having direct beatpaths to teams higher in the rankings, even if they’re hidden. My guess (I don’t know exactly, here) is that New Orleans is making up the difference in this area–for example, they have (I think) a direct beatpath to Atlanta that Indy doesn’t, and also Buffalo, Miami, New York Jets (Indy’s is looped away), etc. Also, Indy doesn’t have a direct beatpath to New England–it got looped away from the loss to Buffalo.
Basically, Indianapolis is being hurt by a lack of wins over strong opponents. But it’s still very close–they only differ in by one edge in edgepower. I’d probably categorize it more as a toss-up.
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:53 pm
I was wrong–Indy has a path to Miami–but the larger point remains.