2010 NFL Week 3 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Hey hey, folks! Kenneth here, and like our illustrious host I’m running behind on things too. Fortunately, it looks like we’re all getting into gear on the site now, so hopefully it will all go smoothly from here on out. Chances of that…low. But how about the rankings? I don’t have much time right now, but then, there’s not much to say–there’s not too much in the way of interesting of the graph (although there are some fun 4 team beatloops!). So, more of just general commentary on me. More in depth loop analysis in later weeks! But I’ve talked too much…let’s get to the rankings!

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat TB) For a team missing all of its quarterbacks, the Steelers look pretty good right now. They actually remind me of many recent Bears teams, who also played without a quarterback. The only difference is that these Steelers are going to get one in a few games.

1

72.97

(17 – 0) / 37

#1 – #18

2

(Beat NO) Apparently there’s no shame in losing to the Steelers. The Falcons have been playing it close in a lot of their games so far, but they’re clearly a quality team.

13

60.81

(9 – 1) / 37

#2 – #24

3

(Beat GB) I’m not sure at what point I’ll finally lose my doubts and start believing in this team, but it hasn’t happened yet. I’m at least confident that they can play with anyone in the NFC.

8

59.46

(7 – 0) / 37

#1 – #26

4

(Lost to DAL) There’s no shame in losing to Dallas, but only if you beatloop it away with a win over Washington. Hey! Beatloop talk! We’ll see if these new Texans keep up the winning ways the entire season. I’m not convinced that they’re really different than last year, but then, they kind of underachieved last year. Maybe this year they’re just cashing in on that potential.

3

55.41

(4 – 0) / 37

#1 – #28

5

(Beat NYG) What I don’t like about the Vince Young benching is that it was basically an admission that they couldn’t handle the Steelers D. I felt they were saying “we have no way of beating the Steelers if we have to face them again”. Well, gee, I wonder if that’s going to happen?

10

55.41

(5 – 1) / 37

#2 – #27

6

(Beat MIA) I haven’t decided if I’m joining in on the backlash against the Jets or the backlash against the backlash against the Jets.

18

55.41

(4 – 0) / 37

#1 – #28

7

(Beat SF) I have a coworker who is a big Chargers fans, so I have trouble rooting for the Chiefs openly. But they seem like such a feel good story to me.

2

54.05

(3 – 0) / 37

#1 – #29

8

(Lost to CHI) Oof, guys. Soldier Field couldn’t have been THAT loud. There was enough yellow cloth on that field to stitch new pants for all the Packers players.

4

54.05

(4 – 1) / 37

#2 – #28

9

(Lost to NYJ) I don’t know why, but I just can’t get behind this team as being equal to the other big boys in the AFC East. Maybe I’m just not familiar with them. I know little about their non-Wildcat offense and less about their defense.

7

52.70

(3 – 1) / 37

#2 – #29

10

(Beat DEN) Got all that “undefeated season” talk out of the way early. That’s good, I guess. At some point these guys have to miss the playoffs at least once, right?

12

52.70

(3 – 1) / 37

#2 – #29

11

(Beat OAK) Really, I’m shocked at this ranking. These Cardinals do not look good. Which in the NFC West, means they’re the leaders.

20

52.70

(4 – 2) / 37

#3 – #29

12

(Lost to ATL) Didn’t the NO kicker make a game winning field goal in the previous game? Didn’t he make one in the Super Bowl? Didn’t he make the game tying field goal at the end of regulation? Why is everyone blowing up over that (admittedly awful) missed one in overtime? Kickers don’t make them all, folks.

6

51.35

(3 – 2) / 37

#3 – #29

13

(Lost to PIT) The lowest ranked of the “no shame in losing to the Steelers” club. I’ve actually been higher on the Buccaneers than most going into this season. I think that’s because I have a higher opinion of Josh Freeman than most. I didn’t like the kid coming out of college, but I think he can be a winner.

9

51.35

(2 – 1) / 37

#2 – #30

14

(Beat BUF) If you weren’t worried about the defense before, seeing Buffalo put up that many points has to have you worried.

14

51.35

(1 – 0) / 37

#1 – #31

15

(Beat CLE) That win over Cleveland was scarily close (I mean, for a win over Cleveland). Maybe Baltimore is just going to have that kind of year, where they win all the time but not by much. That would be consistent with a defensive team, I suppose.

15

51.35

(1 – 0) / 37

#1 – #31

16

(Beat CAR) I know the Bengals showed they’re not on the same level as the Patriots and Carson Palmer looks out of wack. But they beat Baltimore. If, IF, they can win in their division again, they might just get back to the playoffs.

19

51.35

(1 – 0) / 37

#1 – #31

17

(Beat SD) So…what the heck is going on with the Seahawks? It seems like they must be at least halfway decent. Maybe?

27

51.35

(1 – 0) / 37

#1 – #31

18

(Beat JAC) Having drafted Kevin Kolb in two of my fantasy leagues, I am certainly peeved by Vickmania. But I have to admit that he’s made some throws and decisions I would have never expected Michael Vick to make.

17

50.00

(2 – 2) / 37

#3 – #30

19

(Lost to SEA) Phillip Rivers has all the problems with the rest of his team that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have, except more so and he’s not as good. That won’t work forever.

5

48.65

(0 – 1) / 37

#2 – #32

20

(Beat HOU) Not convinced by the one game turnaround. The Cowboys have a lot of talent, but how many games are they going to show up for and put it together?

28

48.65

(0 – 1) / 37

#2 – #32

21

(Lost to IND) So, I hate Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow, but I feel bad rooting against TT’s team. So, I guess, either way i win. Losing to Indy is no shame, but losing to Jacksonville?

22

47.30

(0 – 2) / 37

#3 – #32

22

(Lost to PHI) Where have you gone, Jaguars? Does this team do anything well?

11

45.95

(0 – 3) / 37

#4 – #32

23

(Lost to TEN) This team is a mess. Like the Cowboys, except I trust them even less to put it together on any given day. Having said that, watch them go out this week and beat my Bears.

21

45.95

(1 – 4) / 37

#5 – #31

24

(Lost to ARI) I had a lot of hope for Jason Campbell this season. Shows what I know.

23

45.95

(2 – 5) / 37

#5 – #30

25

(Beat DET) The big boost that Favre gave them last year kind of overshadowed the fact that the core is rotting out on this team. The OLine is not the dominant force it once was, and the defense is slipping a bit too (although still statistically doing well). If only you hadn’t have wasted those years on Tavaris Jackson, Brad Childress…

24

44.59

(1 – 5) / 37

#6 – #31

26

(Lost to BAL) I don’t have anything to say about the Browns, so I’ll just take this moment to mention how much I want LeBron to fail. I mean, if you wanna play with your buddies in Miami, just say so. Don’t hem and haw and pretend like you wanna dance with everyone and make everyone pay attention to your serious deliberations about a decision you made months ago. Man, I hope they NEVER win. The Browns, I guess I hope win sometime.

26

44.59

(0 – 4) / 37

#5 – #32

27

(Lost to NE) Even when they put up a lot of offense, I can’t take that as a good sign for them. I can only see it as a bad sign for the opponent. I really wish the Bills would get better soon.

25

43.24

(0 – 5) / 37

#6 – #32

28

(Lost to KC) I think Mike Singletary is suffering from a form of Bears Syndrome, in which you think it’s more important to be tough and play defense and run the ball tough than it is to win games. At least, that would explain the 49ers offense.

31

43.24

(0 – 5) / 37

#6 – #32

29

(Beat WAS) I was skeptical about drafting him over Suh, but I gotta tell you I’ve watched a little of this Bradford kid and he looks pretty good. He might be the real deal. The Rams better hope he is. And that one of their tackles pans out.

32

41.89

(1 – 7) / 37

#6 – #31

30

(Lost to STL) Losing to the Rams is NOT good. What were they thinking with that RB corps?

16

39.19

(0 – 8) / 37

#7 – #32

31

(Lost to CIN) The Panthers–making the most dysfunctional of teams look extremely competent.

30

39.19

(0 – 8) / 37

#8 – #32

32

(Lost to MIN) Of course, I think Suh is the real deal, too. (At least, I hope he is, because otherwise the Bear’s interior OLine really sucks). A lot of people seem to think the Matt Stafford injury really hurt the team. I agree it does in the long run, but for right now, what makes people think that Stafford was going to give them more than Hill is?

29

36.49

(0 – 10) / 37

#10 – #32

7 Responses to 2010 NFL Week 3 Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. Thurhame says:

    Pittsburg is definitely on top. Of their three opponents so far, EVERY ONE of them has won both of their other games so far. As for Atlanta and Tennessee, as you said, “No shame in losing to the Steelers.”

    I don’t think Houston really deserves to be as high as you have them. Beatloop or not, they did lose to Dallas, which means either they’re inconsistent, or their not as good as their win over IND indicates (or both). In either case, they should be closer to the middle of the rankings. You can’t just ignore beatloops entirely.

    Thus, my ranking system. Beatloops are not removed, putting inconsistent teams closer to the center. To prevent infinite ratios, longer beatpaths are worth less, justified because they are more likely to contain a fluke. For instance, if A->B->C then A gets 1.5 win points instead of 2. If A->B->C->A, the infinite paths give each of them 2 win points and 2 loss points.

    1.000 PIT (8.504 – 0)
    1.000 CHI (6.607 – 0)
    1.000 KC (4.067 – 0)
    0.844 ATL (5.404 – 1)
    0.783 TEN (3.603 – 1)
    0.781 GB (3.567 – 1)
    0.742 ARI (4.309 – 1.5)
    0.727 NYJ (5.333 – 2)
    0.700 BAL (4.667 – 2)
    0.684 CIN (4.333 – 2)
    0.676 PHI (3.133 – 1.5)
    0.676 NE (4.167 – 2)
    0.667 TB (2 – 1)
    0.625 NO (2.5 – 1.5)
    0.603 HOU (5.295 – 3.482)
    0.579 IND (3.767 – 2.741)
    0.556 MIA (2.5 – 2)
    0.442 SEA (3.067 – 3.864)
    0.424 DAL (3.648 – 4.964)
    0.404 OAK (2.206 – 3.25)
    0.355 STL (2.412 – 4.375)
    0.352 SD (2.133 – 3.932)
    0.325 JAC (2.267 – 4.716)
    0.323 WAS (2.824 – 5.929)
    0.307 DEN (2.533 – 5.729)
    0.211 MIN (1 – 3.75)
    0.205 NYG (1 – 3.871)
    0.000 CLE (0 – 4.5)
    0.000 BUF (0 – 5.5)
    0.000 DET (0 – 5.625)
    0.000 SF (0 – 5.682)
    0.000 CAR (0 – 6.435)

  2. The MOOSE says:

    HOU: I agree 4th is probably too high for them, but that’s where they are in my rankings too. Keeping their win over IND boosts them a lot. Assuming IND keeps winning like they tend to do though, it won’t be long until that win gets looped away.

    KC: Food for thought – On the very off chance that they win the Super Bowl this year, it will mean Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis will have won 3 consecutive Super Bowls where they served as O-Coord and D-Coord.

    ARI: There’s no reason to be shocked at ARI’s ranking. While the computer looks at ARI -> OAK -> STL -> WAS and sees ARI at the top, real people see wins over OAK and STL as not very impressive at all. If OAK ends up ARI’s most impressive win, they won’t stay high for long.

    NE: Don’t worry, everyone here was worried about the defense. The BUF game just confirmed it. But to be fair, special teams giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown wasn’t very good either.

    SEA: The jury is still out for these guys in my opinion. A win over SF doesn’t mean anything. SD tends to start the season slow every year too. They’ll probably just be this year’s winner of the most pathetic division in professional sports.

    DEN: They tend to start out strong and fade as SD kicks it into overdrive. Looks like they’re going to fade early this year. KC might get to take advantage if both teams struggle.

    DET: I feel bad for the city. Haven’t the people there suffered enough? They’re trying to be the Pittsburgh Pirates of football.

  3. Thurhame says:

    ARI gets a chance to prove themselves to the critics this coming week in San Diego. On the other hand, SD gets a chance to move up the rankings toward where you’d expect them to be.

    SEA: In their favor, they have a win over SD, which might re-emerge at some point. At the least, it cancels out one of their losses in a beatloop. I agree though, a win over SF means nothing. They play STL this coming week; not much chance for improvement there, and a potential disaster if they lose.

    DET isn’t likely to move up anytime soon. They get to play GB this coming week.

    KC gets a bye. No chance to move away from their ambiguous position. If SD beats ARI they’ll move up a little.

  4. JT says:

    Houston does seem pretty high at the moment, but that’s what happens with these beatpaths rankings so early in the season. Generally after a few more weeks things start to shake out. If the Texans can keep winning (they’ve got Oakland, NYG, KC, a bye week, and then Indy again), they may float around the top for a while. That game in Indianapolis during week 8 with both teams coming off the bye could be a big one that tells us a lot about both teams.

    I was surprised that Washington stayed above a few teams, but I suppose a win to offset some terrible losses helps some. The Redskins seem to play to the level of their opponent though, so maybe they’ll look better vs Philly.

  5. Kenneth says:

    Yeah, if you look at the Redskins graph all of the teams above them converge on each other, instead of fanning out to a lot of teams like Detroit and Carolina do.

    That loss to the Rams could hurt them in the graph for awhile, though.

  6. ThunderThumbs says:

    Thurhame, your method sounds similar to some academic paper I read recently, where the points degrade as you get further away from a direct victory. Except I think they used limit theory somehow, which was also intriguing to me since it moved the algorithm back away from that arbitrary choice of what numbers to use to weight teams.

    I just realized I have the same initials as Tim Tebow. That annoys me almost as much as his GB call sign meaning both Go Broncos and God Bless.

  7. […] to NYG) Yeah, remember last week when I said I wasn’t ready to believe in the Bears yet? Me either, I just happened to come […]

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