2010 NFL Week 10 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Hey folks! Kenneth here with more rankings! We’ve got some another new team on top of the rankings this week. Let’s get right to it!

You can see this week’s graph here.

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat PIT) The Patriots take the top spot this week. They don’t get credit for the win over the Steelers–it gets looped away by their loss to the Browns, which was already looped away by their win over the Ravens. Still, that game definitely made it seem like they were better than Pittsburgh; literally every time I turned it on, the Patriots were scoring (I seriously had the best TV turning-on-luck that night).

7

83.33

(44 – 0) / 66

#1 – #10

2

(Lost to NE) Steelers slip to number 2 this week. A Pittsburgh/NE game looks even more interesting now that they’re the top two spots in beatpaths. If you look at the graph you’ll see that the Steelers and Patriots look very similar. That’s true; the differences are hidden in the final, pretty version of the graph, but New England has slightly better redundant links to teams, and more of them (Pittsburgh has more wins looped out). But the two teams are pretty close to equal in the Beatpaths world.

1

81.82

(42 – 0) / 66

#1 – #10

3

(Beat TEN) One thing making the Pats and Steelers look equal is that they’re both sitting on top of the Dolphins, who take the number 3 spot in the rankings. I’ll be honest, I am surprised that Miami is this high–I would not have expected it offhand. But their only losses seem to be to good teams (Ravens, Jets, Pats & Steelers), which can make their W/L record deceiving at first glance.

11

78.03

(39 – 2) / 66

#3 – #11

4

(Lost to MIA) Of course, the foundation for those Dolphins are the Titans, who hold them up nicely. Sometimes EdgePower tells you things that straight rankings don’t. In this week it’s telling us that there are 4 elite teams at the top that are far above everyone else. Not that the Titans are very close to the Patriots, but they’re much closer than anyone below them is to them. Put it this way–in terms of Edgepower, the dropoff from 4 to 5 (Giants) is bigger than the dropoff from 5 to 20.

3

74.24

(36 – 4) / 66

#4 – #12

5

(Lost to DAL) On that note, the Giants lead the “best of the rest” category (otherwise known as “the NFC”). The loss the Cowboys just causes a season split, which is not so bad as they still have paths to Dallas. The Giants are actually pretty much equal with the Eagles, which should make this week’s game pretty interesting.

4

60.61

(19 – 5) / 66

#5 – #19

6

(Beat WAS) And here are those Eagles! I told you they were about equal. Philadelphia is the first team do something really interesting loop-wise this week. Their win over the Redskins gave them a season split. That broke up two 3-team beatloops relying on the WAS=>PHI result, one with Detroit and one with Indy. Philadelphia kept the win over Detroit, but the win over Indianapolis ended up in a larger beatloop (our first loop of >3 teams in awhile). I know Vick was amazing on Monday night, but didn’t anyone stop to think “geez, this Redskin defense really looks terrible”?

10

60.61

(19 – 5) / 66

#5 – #19

7

(Beat CLE) The Jets manage to avoid tying the Browns, barely. Still, the Browns are not considered a quality team by Beatpaths, leaving the Jets in their old position of not having any impressive wins (that are not looped away). But they still have no beatlosses, so they can rise as soon as they beat a good team. Houston this weekend would suffice (assuming there’s not some other loop waiting to happen I’m not seeing).

9

57.58

(10 – 0) / 66

#1 – #24

8

(Beat ARI) Seattle drops some, not due to anything much of their own doing, but mainly due to their beatwin over my beloved Bears holding less value this week. Since I live in St. Louis I’m pulling for the Rams to win this atrocity of a division, but I have to admit that my head is liking the Seahawks right now.

5

56.82

(15 – 6) / 66

#6 – #21

9

(Bye) So, you might notice that this is the first rankings in awhile where Green Bay shows up before Chicago. That’s because of the aforementioned Philly and Washington season split. That broke up the WAS=>PHI=>IND=>WAS loop, meaning that PHI=>IND survived later into the elimination process. It didn’t survive forever, though–it was eventually used to create a 5 team loop of PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI. That lead Philly to shed its beatloss to Green Bay, but it also meant that Green Bay got rid of its only beatloss–to Chicago. That caused a great rift in the graph–instead of teams being generally ordered together in one long line, two piles (of a sort) were created, with the Giants on top of one and the Eagles on top of the other. The 4 elite teams mentioned above are the ones with the paths to both piles, which is what makes them so much more (Edge)powerful than everyone else. Anyway, long story short is that the Packers are left with no beatlosses but only beatwins to unimpressive teams, so they are now squarely in Jets-land. This weekend won’t help much, as they already have a win over the Favres.

8

56.06

(8 – 0) / 66

#1 – #26

10

(Lost to ATL) Ravens loop away this loss in a 3 team loop with Pittsburgh, a win which they had already lost before. I liked that Roddy White admitted to pushing off on that touchdown play–I don’t know that he meant to cheat on the play, and I think it’s just best to admit when a call (or non-call) goes your way.

14

53.79

(5 – 0) / 66

#1 – #27

11

(Lost to DEN) What the hell, Chiefs? Seriously? This loss doesn’t cost the Chiefs anything they hadn’t already looped away. I thought the Chiefs were in a bad position when they had a lot of wins over unimpressive teams. Now they’ve started acquiring losses to unimpressive teams. Not an improvement, guys.

15

53.79

(5 – 0) / 66

#1 – #27

12

(Beat BAL) This win loops away the Falcons’ loss to Pittsburgh, which is nice but as There’s No Shame In Losing To The Steelers it’s not so big a deal. Atlanta is one of the spokes of the Philadelphia pile, so what they really need to do to continue moving up the rankings is get their hands on some other parts of the pile.

16

53.79

(11 – 6) / 66

#6 – #24

13

(Beat CIN) More fallout from the Vickalypse–the new 5 team loop removes the Colts win over the Giants, which it turns out was a large part of their ranking. The Colts are now over Denver, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Washington. Yuck. Still, my eyes tell me not to count out the Colts anytime soon.

2

53.03

(4 – 0) / 66

#1 – #28

14

(Bye) No big change for NO. I guess they’re supposed to get Reggie Bush back, which should be nice. What inquiring fantasy owners want to know is when is Pierre Thomas coming back, for crying out loud?

12

52.27

(3 – 0) / 66

#1 – #30

15

(Beat MIN) Bears get swept up in the new 5 team loop, which takes away their win over the Packers. We had talked about that being a real vulnerability for them (and other teams on top of them) for awhile, and now it happened. I know Cutler had a pretty good game last week, but it seemed to me like all of his good passes came when he held onto the ball and/or scrambled out of the pocket and made plays to receivers who had broken off their routes and were in free-play mode. Which is to say, I didn’t see any of the timing-based, throw-to-the-spot plays that are supposed to be the main part of a Mike Martz offense. So I think that the real reason Cutler did well is that the Minnesota front four couldn’t get to him (they didn’t blitz at all), and he had lots of time to work with. All of which means I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall flat on their face against a team with more and better blitzes. I’m hopeful they won’t, of course, but not optimistic.

6

51.52

(9 – 7) / 66

#7 – #25

16

(Bye) The downside of me writing this thing is that I have a lot less to say about AFC teams. And I have nothing to say about a team that didn’t play anyone and didn’t change any of their direct paths. And yet, I still squeezed fifty one words out of it.

13

51.52

(2 – 0) / 66

#1 – #30

17

(Bye) Hey, I used up that no-comment-bye bit on a team right before this one. Guess I should have looked ahead to see what was coming up. Speaking of which, I guess the Chargers have the Broncos this week. Maybe that will shed some light on the AFC West.

18

48.48

(6 – 8) / 66

#7 – #26

18

(Beat CAR) The Buccaneers beat a team they really should beat. That may not sound like much, but for a young team that is on the upswing it’s important for them to get used to doing that.

20

48.48

(6 – 8) / 66

#7 – #28

19

(Beat KC) This win gets looped away in a 3 team loop with San Francisco, who was already looped away for Denver, so no real boost to their chances. In the Beatpaths world. In the real world, it just makes it look like anyone can win the AFC West. The Broncos may not qualify as much, but they do fit the criteria of “anyone”.

17

47.73

(0 – 3) / 66

#4 – #32

20

(Lost to JAC) The Texans lose the Only One Of You Can Be Considered Serious This Season Bowl to the Jaguars. This loss gets looped away in a three team loop with the Chiefs, which was a win already looped away for the Texans so it doesn’t hurt them that much. Except maybe for pride. I feel like if one of these teams was actually going to be serious, they should have stomped the other one.

19

45.45

(0 – 6) / 66

#6 – #32

21

(Beat HOU) Just as the Texans get no damages from the loss, the Jaguars get no benefit from the win. And we’re once again left with 2 teams ranked right next to each other the week after they play each other, although this one is infinitely less interesting than a Steelers-Patriots rematch would be. Although, considering the relative closeness of the two games, maybe not.

23

45.45

(5 – 11) / 66

#9 – #27

22

(Lost to CHI) The Vikings offense is down to Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson. It’s basically the Panthers offense from 2005, except Steve Smith is better than Harvin and Peterson is better than whoever Carolina had. But anyway, you put two guys on Harvin and 8 guys in the box to stop AP and you’re done. Now, three years ago when Peterson was first coming in the league, he’d beat those 8 man fronts easily. I don’t think he’s slowed down in year 4; I think this is just a clear indication that Steve Hutchinson and the vaunted Vikings offensive line is not playing at a high level anymore.

21

43.94

(4 – 12) / 66

#10 – #28

23

(Lost to NYJ) I really thought the Browns were going to pull this one out. Just as well; I wasn’t really interested in Return of the Mangenius anyway.

25

43.18

(0 – 9) / 66

#9 – #32

24

(Beat STL) Put me firmly in the “no PI” camp in this game; I don’t think you can claim that the receiver would have stopped, turned, and gotten back around to that ball. In any case, this game gets looped away in a 3 team loop with Seattle, which was a loss the 49ers had already looped away, so no cookies for you, San Francisco.

32

43.18

(0 – 9) / 66

#8 – #32

25

(Lost to SEA) Not that the Green Bay front office needs any more validation. But I feel like the situation in Arizona this year really validates the way they handled the Favre situation. They had a chance to continue having high quality QB play, and they went for it instead of continuing a love affair with a hero. Now, I’m not saying that the Cardinals should have ditched Warner earlier–far from it. Just that a good QB can mask a lot of problems, and it’s very hard to replace one of those. The Cardinals obviously couldn’t, and it’s not exactly their fault–it’s hard to do! But they’re obviously suffering this season because of it.

22

42.42

(0 – 10) / 66

#9 – #32

26

(Lost to IND) So is the plan to draft a QB this year? Certainly you can’t keep waiting for Palmer to turn it around, right?

26

41.67

(1 – 12) / 66

#9 – #31

27

(Beat DET) Hooray! The Bills finally got a win! And hooray, it wasn’t against my Bears!

28

37.12

(3 – 20) / 66

#15 – #29

28

(Beat NYG) You’ll notice I discreetly avoided bringing up my proclamation that the Giants were the best team in the NFC. Yes, I’ve eliminated all evidence. Wait…doh! Anyway, this win for the Cowboys just creates a season split with the Giants.

30

33.33

(0 – 22) / 66

#14 – #32

29

(Lost to TB) So DeAngelo (I hope I capitalized that correctly) Williams is out for the season, apparently. I’d say “too bad”, but really, is it too bad that he’s not out there in this complete abomination of a season? Save yourself while you can, dude.

31

33.33

(0 – 22) / 66

#14 – #32

30

(Lost to BUF) Losing to the Bills drops the Lions below them and down in the rankings. I knew the Bills were too good to go 0fer, but I’m a little surprised they beat the Lions. I keep feeling like the Lions should have more wins than they do. It’s getting a bit worrying that they’re not pulling some of these out. I mean that in a generic unbiased opinion sort of way; as a fan of a team that has to play them twice each year, I’m okay with it.

24

28.79

(2 – 30) / 66

#17 – #30

31

(Lost to SF) I guess this Bradford kid still has some things to learn, yet.

27

23.48

(1 – 36) / 66

#21 – #31

32

(Lost to PHI) It’s nice that with the Raiders looking decent the Redskins have stepped up to try and make up the lack of crazy incompetence in the league. I don’t care if the contract could be voided tomorrow, I still thought it was weird to make any deal right then.

29

21.21

(0 – 38) / 66

#23 – #32

10 Responses to 2010 NFL Week 10 Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. The MOOSE says:

    NE: Interesting that you place them first. My rankings with the same graph gives PIT the #1 spot. After removing loops, NE retains 5 wins and PIT only 3. Both team share a win over MIA. When comparing the remains, NE’s best win is over #17 SD and the rest are #22 or worse. PIT has a win over #4 TEN and TB which my system considers more impressive.

    NYJ: I don’t see how a win this weekend over HOU could help them in any way. HOU is #20 which is worse than their current best BeatWin over #19 DEN. A lot of wins over bad teams doesn’t move you up the graph. Since HOU split with IND, there is no way for them to regain the BeatWin they had. HOU has no surviving beatwins, so really there’s nothing to be gained.

    KC: It’s really amazing to me that this team was the last undefeated team of the season. I’m tempted to check if the last undefeated team has ever missed the playoffs before. I’m pretty sure KC is going to be on the outside looking in.

    OAK: That’s cheating. If you had said you had gotten fifty words out of it instead, you still would have been correct, but would have been more concise.

    CLE: I have them ranked above both MIN and JAC because there is less stacked above them. A direct loss to NYJ and Kc bring nothing. Only their loss to ATL brings extra teams into their mix. JAC’s losses to SD and PHI come with a lot of baggage. MIN is similar to CLE with unburdened losses to NYJ and GB, but their stacked loss comes to CHI which is 1 point worse on my scale than ATL.

    SF: I’d say SF got a lot of cookies this week. The loop with SEA wasn’t the only one. SF → STL also loops away CAR → SF which is what had SF at the bottom of the graph in previous week. Now SF is free to rise up the graph. That was huge.

    ARI: Wait, what? I’m pretty sure Favre is doing a good job of validating GB’s decision. Also, the situation as I understand it was that Warner retired, giving ARI no choice in the matter. And finally, as Aaron Rogers was ready to supplant Favre, Matt Leinhart was to do the same for Warner. The problem was that he wasn’t good enough to win the starting job and got released. I think the loss of Boldin also is a big factor because the Fitzgerald/Boldin combo was difficult to defend.

  2. Kenneth says:

    In response to your points:

    Re: New England, I don’t remember–did you switch to the Edgepower ranking system or not? I’m not super versed in it right now so I couldn’t say for certain why it gives more power to the Patriots…maybe TT could chime in.

    You’re right about Jets vs. Houston. Must have accidentally seen the line from Philly going to Jacksonville. Probably a bad idea to write up the rankings so late.

    I make no apologies for my Oakland writeup. 🙂

    You’re right about San Francisco; I’m not sure how I missed that loop. In my defense, there are a lot of 3 team loops right now.

    And finally–my point was that the situation in Arizona shows how hard it is to replace a good quarterback with another one. Favre looks bad now, but he looked good last year and he was pretty good his last year in Green Bay IIRC. There were a lot of arguments that the Packers should have kept riding Favre as long as he could go even if it meant they lost Aaron Rodgers. But Rodgers turned out to be a really good quarterback, and Green Bay would probably be in a much worse place if they had tried to ride Favre out. Even if the chance of Rodgers being good was only 60% or so, you have to make that leap because it’s very hard to go out and find a quarterback who is even halfway decent–which is the situation Arizona is now in.

    The comment was less about Arizona’s situation, who tried to do the same thing Green Bay did and failed because Leinart (apparently) was a bust (BTW, you’re right that Warner retired). But if the choice would have been another year of Warner and Leinart goes in free agency versus ditch Warner and start Leinart…well, that’s what happened in Green Bay. And Green Bay made the non-safe, non-traditional choice, and it paid off.

    My point was just that Arizona is scrambling to find a QB to replace their Pro Bowl one, and it’s very hard to do that. And when you face that drop off at the QB position, it really drags your whole team down.

  3. The MOOSE says:

    No I didn’t switch. I use a method I developed on my own. From time to time it disagrees with EdgePower, but I like how it works.

  4. ThunderThumbs says:

    I’m trying to remember the short-and-sweet explanation of both methods. EdgePower is how many game matchups there are above and below a team. Moose’s is how many unique distinct routes there are from a team to other teams…?

    EdgePower is a direct descendant from NodePower which was just how many teams were above and below a team.

  5. The MOOSE says:

    I have an explanation of how I get to the raw score on my site. If you go to the How It Works menu to the Ratings and Rankings page.

    Also, I checked my LinkedIn account the other day, and it suggested that I add you TT. I didn’t know that we were considered professional acquaintances! The internet knows too much!

  6. @MOOSE: in 1993, the Saints started 5-0, and were the last team to lose (week 7). But they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

    That’s the most recent case to date. There are probably more, but I don’t have game data before 1993 converted to my new format to check.

    D∈T

  7. Nope. On further review, going back to the merger (1970), the 1993 Saints are the only team (so far) to be the last to lose and not make the playoffs.

    Playoffs before the 1970 season were just one championship game, so (I assume) there are more in that era.

    D∈T

  8. Well, fooey. Shortly after posting, I noticed I had botched my data for 1970, and it was not included in my scan.

    Sure enough… in 1970, 3 teams made it to week 4 before losing: the Rams, Lions and Broncos. Of those, only the Lions made the playoffs.

  9. The MOOSE says:

    Sounds like a list you really don’t want to end up on. KC has their work cut out for them.

  10. JDHalfrack says:

    Where are the week 11 beatpath graphs/rankings?! I can’t go into this week’s football games without seeing them!

    And, did you see the “viral” picture about “parity in the NFL?” Yahoo sports was acting like making a beatpath was some new concept…

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