2010 NFL Week 11 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Ah…Thanksgiving weekend. A time for traditions. Gathering with family, turkey dinner, and watching NFL games. Waiitt…NFL games? Consarnit! I’m late with the rankings!

Well, another Thanksgiving tradition goes on–Beatpath Rankings after the Thanksgiving games. But you can enjoy with me as we discuss what the rankings looked like before Thursday. Enjoy!

You can see this week’s graph here.

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat IND) Big win by the Patriots last week, but I wonder if the emotion of that and the short week is going to cause a trap with their upcoming game against the Lions. Oh wait! I already know it didn’t. This win gives a direct beatpath for New England to Indianapolis, and that makes them the clear best team in the league, as opposed to last week.

1

72.46

(31 – 0) / 69

#1 – #13

2

(Beat NYG) Through a complicated set of events, the Eagles jump above their Pennsylvanian brethren to take the #2 spot this week. How did they accomplish that? Through a little work of their own, and a little help. They got help from the Redskins beating the Titans, which created a 4 team beatloop of PHI=>IND=>WAS=>TEN=>PHI, which removed their beatloss to the Titans. But that broke up a larger loop from last week of PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI, which meant that GB=>PHI was due to come back into the graph. Or, it WOULD have, except that Philly beat the Giants this week, letting them turn the PHI=>IND=>NYG segment in the 5 team loop from last week into simply PHI=>NYG, making a new 4 team loop of PHI=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI. So, GB=>PHI stays out of the graph, and TEN=>PHI leaves too. It all adds up to Philadelphia having no beatlosses and rising to #2 in the rankings this week.

6

65.94

(22 – 0) / 69

#1 – #19

3

(Beat OAK) Pittsburgh tumbled a bit this week, mainly because it’s two big pieces of support–MIA and TEN–both had their own problems. More on those guys later. But even without that, they’re still highly ranked. But Edgepower now clearly sees them as inferior to the Patriots, as opposed to last week when they were almost even.

2

63.77

(19 – 0) / 69

#1 – #19

4

(Lost to NE) Another reason why the Patriots look better this week is that the Colts, who they just got a path to, are also looking better this week. Do you know why? I’ve already hinted at it…okay, here’s the reason. It’s in the breakup of that 5 team loop from before (PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI). The PHI=>IND=>NYG segment got pulled out and put back in the graph. Now, we know that Indianapolis looped away the loss to Philly with a win over Washington, but they kept the win over the Giants. And that gave back a lot of support to the Colts, and so they rise up the rankings.

13

63.04

(19 – 1) / 69

#2 – #18

5

(Lost to PHI) Big Blue’s loss to Philly hurts them in that it puts the Colts on top of them, it’s true. But they got some help from another source–my Chicago Bears! Yes, the Bears beating Miami created a four team loop of CHI=>MIA=>TEN=>NYG=>CHI. That loops away the Giants loss to Tennessee, which gets a lot of teams out from on top of them. So, they gain a little, and lose a little, and end up in about the same place.

5

59.42

(15 – 2) / 69

#3 – #21

6

(Beat STL) Atlanta rising this week as well, due to their being no teams on top of Philly (the only team they’re under). I feel like people were underrating the Falcons earlier this season, and now they’re overcompensating. I like the Falcons, I’m just not sure I see them getting things done in the playoffs.

12

58.70

(13 – 1) / 69

#2 – #24

7

(Beat HOU) The win over the Texans gives little help the Jets, and they basically tread water. I mistakenly thought that beating the Texans would win, but I misread the little lines in the graph. They’re tricky buggers, they is! As for the Jets…Beatpaths is (notoriously) score-agnostic, game-situation-agnostic, whatever-you-can-think-of-that-isn’t-wins-and-losses-agnostic, so it still believes in the Jets. Personally, I’d like to see them win games without pulling it out at the end–oh, look what happened on Thanksgiving!

7

57.97

(11 – 0) / 69

#1 – #23

8

(Beat MIN) Lots of things happened around the Packers, but not much happened TO the Packers, and so they stay about the same. Big game this weekend at the Georgia Dome, though. Go Falcons!

9

56.52

(9 – 0) / 69

#1 – #26

9

(Lost to NO) The loss to New Orleans is looped away in a 3 team loop with Arizona, which was a win that the Seahawks had already looped away last week, so no change for the Seahawks.

8

55.80

(11 – 3) / 69

#4 – #23

10

(Beat DEN) Well, there is SOME change for Seattle–they no longer have a beatwin over San Diego, who jumps up the charts as a result. The win over Denver caused a 3 team loop that blew away that loss, and now the Chargers are only under the Patriots. Still, they don’t have much support at the moment, so this is as far as they get. Win some more, and they’ll look better. And I’ll be impressed. I have no idea how they’re doing this well with a passing attack cobbled out of Phillip Rivers and spare parts at WR.

17

54.35

(7 – 1) / 69

#2 – #25

11

(Lost to CHI) Big drop for the Dolphins, as the loss to the Bears cost them their path to the Titans. Not that that looks impressive now–well, more about that when we get to the Titans. It’s an unfortunate fact of Beatpaths–and more objective stats-based rankings–that they don’t tend to distinguish between different iterations of a team. Certainly the Miami team that was out last Thursday wasn’t the same one that had been playing up to that point. Although, why did they try to pass so much? I don’t know that running would have helped–the Bears were stopping the run pretty well–but why try to win it with your third string QB missing his top target (in the second half) behind a patchwork line?

3

53.62

(7 – 2) / 69

#3 – #26

12

(Beat ARI) The Chiefs’ win over Arizona is looped away in a 3 team loop with Oakland, which is a loss they had already shed. And the search for quality wins continues for Kansas City.

11

53.62

(5 – 0) / 69

#1 – #27

13

(Beat MIA) Bears do a lot of damage to other team’s paths, but not much to their own–they’re still about where they were. I, for one, am not fearing the Vickopalypse. I think the Bears have a fast defense that will do a good job at keeping Vick contained (the lousy Soldier Field turf will help, too). They’ve done so in the past. I know Vick is a better passer now, but I still think the Bears can limit them. The way to beat the Bears defense is to either overpower them in the run or to methodically slice them up with small plays marching down the field. I don’t think either of those are strong points of the Eagles–I think of them as a big-play machine, although I could be wrong. The real issue will be when the Bears’ have the ball–if they can move the ball against the Eagles’ formidable defense without turning it over, then it will be a game.

15

53.62

(9 – 4) / 69

#5 – #25

14

(Beat SF) The Buccaneers now have a beatwin over the 49ers. That and a quarter will get you a phone call. Wait, is that right anymore? What does a payphone call cost now? I haven’t used one in ages. I don’t even see them around. What’s the new phrase? I’m old.

18

52.90

(7 – 3) / 69

#4 – #27

15

(Beat SEA) Much like the Seahawks, this game quickly disappeared into oblivion for the Saints. At least next week I’ll have a thrilling game to talk about for the Saints even if it gets swallowed hole by loops.

14

52.17

(3 – 0) / 69

#1 – #30

16

(Beat CLE) Jacksonville adds a third beatwin to their stable, but the real news is the rise of the Chargers and Eagles, both of whom give the Jaguars some room to breathe. Oh, and they’re in first place in their division, which is pretty nice, too. I guess.

21

52.17

(6 – 3) / 69

#4 – #26

17

(Beat CAR) The Ravens fall some more, but it’s not their fault. Well, I guess it’s their fault that they lost to Cincinnati earlier this year–a loss which continues to haunt them. Since the Bengals lost to the Bills this week, it created a 3 team loop and the Ravens lose their win over Buffalo. They get a win over Carolina, though…until the Bengals lose to them too.

10

51.45

(2 – 0) / 69

#1 – #30

18

(Lost to PIT) Oakland gets a beatloss again with the loss. Looks like it’s still going to be some time before they’re playing with the big boys.

16

50.72

(2 – 1) / 69

#2 – #30

19

(Lost to WAS) So, the Titans. They had a beatpath to the Giants. Now they don’t. They were ranked number 4. Now they’re number 19. These are not unrelated. Now they’re trying to win with a QB named Rusty Smith. That sounds more like a NASCAR driver than a starting QB. But don’t worry, Randy Moss is here!

4

50.00

(1 – 1) / 69

#2 – #31

20

(Lost to SD) The loss to the Chargers gets looped away–twice–by wins that they Broncos had already lost, so they don’t lose much here. I’ve come to the conclusion that the Broncos aren’t really much worse than the Chiefs or Raiders, they just had the misfortune/decency to show it at the beginning of the season.

19

47.10

(0 – 4) / 69

#5 – #32

21

(Lost to NYJ) I guess we now know that Revis > Andre Johnson, which is surprising to me.

20

47.10

(0 – 4) / 69

#5 – #32

22

(Lost to KC) This loss gets looped away by the Cardinals win over the Raiders, which went bye-bye a long time ago. Is Larry Fitzgerald in a Jared Allen in Kansas City situation here? I have to say that I’m skeptical that Arizona is going to get quality QB play in the next 2 years.

25

45.65

(0 – 6) / 69

#7 – #32

23

(Lost to TB) For some reason I have a memory of the 49ers being favored against the Buccaneers, which is just ridiculous to me. But I can’t seem to figure out what the odds were. In any case–when are people going to give up on the 49ers? Come on folks.

24

44.93

(0 – 7) / 69

#6 – #32

24

(Lost to BUF) In fairness, it’s my understanding that the Bengals lost 2 of their starters in the defensive secondary during the course of this game, and that’s when it went from “Bengals in control” to “Wild West Shootout and Cincinnati brought a knife”. I guess I’m not surprised that this season has gone this way for the Bengals. I just am continually surprised that last season went so well for them. I assume Marvin Lewis is gone, right?

26

44.93

(1 – 8) / 69

#7 – #31

25

(Lost to GB) Now, at least people have the decency to mostly ignore the 49ers. The only difference between San Francisco and this team is the amount of Wrangler Jeans commercials made by team members. Bench the Favre!

22

44.20

(4 – 12) / 69

#10 – #28

26

(Lost to JAC) Wow, I’m completely off the reservation here. But that’s what happens when you get to the point of the rankings when you’re talking about bad teams that don’t really move much in the rankings. Cleveland really looks okay to me, though. I’m sending them good thoughts for next year. Although if you look at the past 20+ Bears season, that probably doesn’t bode well. At least the Heat are losing.

23

44.20

(0 – 8) / 69

#8 – #32

27

(Beat CIN) I like what’s going on in Buffalo but I still think they should draft a QB this year. Because I don’t know that this isn’t just a Kitna effect (remember Cincinnati?) year for Fitzpatrick. And even if it isn’t, it’s always nice to have a young backup, just in case you need it. Just look at Green Bay.

27

40.58

(3 – 16) / 69

#14 – #29

28

(Lost to BAL) Man, this team has fallen apart. I feel like there’s talent here, but you certainly can’t see it.

29

36.23

(0 – 19) / 69

#13 – #32

29

(Beat DET) I’m sort of glad that the Cowboys ended up losing on Thanksgiving, because now we don’t have to hear endless stories about how the three game winning streak proves that “The Cowboys Are Back” and “Jason Garrett Is For Realz Yo”. Although I don’t suppose a 3 point loss to the Saints is going to stop anyone from writing those stories.

28

34.78

(0 – 21) / 69

#15 – #32

30

(Lost to DAL) Now we get to the “I don’t really think these teams are this bad” part of the rankings. Which I guess just consists of Detroit and St. Louis. Still, at some point you have to start winning games. Look at Seattle. I don’t think they’re any more talented than these teams, but they’ve won some games.

30

31.88

(2 – 27) / 69

#16 – #30

31

(Lost to ATL) The Rams can’t even use the excuse of “Seattle plays in a much worse division than us”. They’re in the same division! Take advantage of the situation Rams.

31

25.36

(1 – 35) / 69

#20 – #31

32

(Beat TEN) Well, beating the Titans sure caused some havoc WAAAY up the graph, but the Redskins can’t really see it from here. Who knows, though–if the Redskins win some more…ah, forget it. I don’t even want to try to imagine it.

32

23.91

(0 – 36) / 69

#21 – #32

One Response to 2010 NFL Week 11 Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. The MOOSE says:

    The graph has a couple surprises near the top after yesterday’s game. But first, let’s take a look at what tonight’s game could do.

    If SF wins tonight, the win will get immediately looped away by SF → ARI → NO → SF, costing NO their win over SF. This would leave the defending Super Bowl champions with only 1 remaining BeatWin, over basement-dwelling CAR. If ARI wins, I believe the win will stand and push SF down a little.

    Last week IND rose a lot from another team’s actions. This week IND will crash, again from another team’s actions. The rise came from regaining their win over NYG, and their loss comes from NYG’s defeat of JAC causing NYG → JAC → IND → NYG.

    IND’s partner in crime for jumping up and down the graph this year had been DEN. Within one span DEN had the following rankings (by my scoring method): 21, 7, 4, 18, 7, 18. Since then DEN had stayed in the same spot, but this week they are big movers again. They did not move in a good direction though. The loss to STL held up, putting them on the same level as WAS, which is to say… the bottom.

    Tomorrow we’ll look at the surprises at the top of the chart and how they got there.

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