2010 NFL Week 16 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Hello again folks, and welcome to a shockingly on time version of the Beatpaths rankings! That’s right, the relative calm of the week between Christmas and New Year’s has let me hit this small window between the delayed Tuesday game and the Thursday Night game. And…wait, what do you mean there’s no Thursday night game this week? AARGGH!!! Well, enough about my schedule…let’s look at some rankings!

You can see the graph for this week here.

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat BUF) YAWN…the Patriots crush another opponent, and stay high up on top of the rankings. They’re even further ahead of second place than they were last week. I really don’t like the Patriots, but there’s no denying that they’re the best team in the league this year.

1

81.63

(62 – 0) / 98

#1 – #7

2

(Beat CAR) Pittsburgh moves up a spot after the team who was at #2 mysteriously abandons the position. Well, it’s not so mysterious, really. In any case, the Steelers look very impressive themselves, except when compared to the Patriots. Once again, there’s a large gap between 1, 2, and 3 this week.

3

72.45

(44 – 0) / 98

#1 – #13

3

(Lost to NO) Sometimes, you get graph fluctuations, where the graph structures itself one way for a week, then reverts to its previous structure the next week. That’s what happened here; for one week, the graph was aligned in a large tower; this week, it flattened itself out again. That’s how you can get the yo-yo rankings of the Falcons, who went from #4 two weeks ago to #9 last week and back to #3 now. As for their loss to the Saints? Well, it got looped away as part of a season split–but that did break up an existing 3 team beatloop with Pittsburgh. That put their loss to the Steelers back in the graph, but as I’ve been saying all season, There’s No Shame In Losing To Pittsburgh.

9

65.82

(32 – 1) / 98

#2 – #17

4

(Beat OAK) The Colts! They’re furiously trying to charge up the charts. This week, they were able to loop away their loss to the Chargers with this win over Oakland (also, the Chargers loss to the Bengals does the same). That threw a whole mess of teams off of them (more on this later), and let the Colts move upwards.

8

64.80

(30 – 1) / 98

#2 – #16

5

(Beat NYJ) The Bears get a quality win over the Jets and they go down? What is up with that? Well, they do have the win over the Jets, which helps. But they lost their win over the Packers when the Pack beat the Giants and made a 3 team beatloop–a loss that the Bears had already looped away with their win over the Eagles. Unfortunately, next week’s game against the Packers could easily mean nothing for the Bears (the Falcons play earlier in the day), so there’s a decent chance they throw it rest their starters, which would create a season split. I know I would sit the first team, or at least Jay Cutler, who already has one concussion this season.

2

63.27

(27 – 1) / 98

#2 – #17

6

(Lost to MIN) First, before I do anything, I want to get to this:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Okay, I’m back. So, while this loss was huge for the NFL, as far as Beatpaths is concerned it wasn’t so big; it got looped away in a 3 team loop with the Giants, and that win was already looped away by their loss to the Bears (remember, from 5 seconds ago?).

6

62.24

(24 – 0) / 98

#1 – #20

7

(Lost to GB) So, the Giants get pummeled by the Packers, but they get to rise? Two reasons: one, this loss got looped away in a three team loop with the Redskins, and two, they are still under the Colts, and the Colts rising means that the Giants have room to rise, too. That said, I wouldn’t feel great about my chances if I were a Giants fan right now.

11

57.65

(18 – 3) / 98

#4 – #21

8

(Beat TEN) Chiefs! They rise up because the Colts give them some room, too. They also benefit from the flattening of the graph; they weren’t high up the tower, so the shortening (is that a word?) of things makes their edgepower look better relative to everyone else–much like the Falcons.

14

57.65

(17 – 2) / 98

#3 – #19

9

(Beat ATL) Well, beating the Falcons got looped away, and they didn’t get their win over the Steelers is still looped away in a three team loop with the Browns. They could get that back if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland this weekend, but how likely is that? Meanwhile, they look worse because Dallas, their best support last week, took a tumble and dragged them down with them.

13

55.61

(11 – 0) / 98

#1 – #23

10

(Beat NYG) Once again, the Packers just aren’t keeping their most impressive wins. This one, you may remember me saying, is looped away by the loss to Chicago. Their remaining beatwins, just like last week, are not that impressive. But things will change if they beat the Bears this weekend.

12

54.59

(10 – 1) / 98

#2 – #25

11

(Lost to DET) The loss to Detroit is looped away in a three team loop with Minnesota. That costs them a beatpath, but that’s not the reason for their big tumble. The real culprit is the collapse of Oakland, who was propping them up. For the first time in awhile, I feel real optimism for the Raiders; I think they could have a good season next year, although the sooner they address their QB situation long term the better.

4

54.08

(11 – 3) / 98

#3 – #24

12

(Lost to CHI) I think you would have to put Sanchez out in the punt formation a lot of times on real punts before that kind of trickery worked, right? I wonder why teams don’t do that that often. Obviously you don’t want key players playing on special teams, but what if you only did it on punts you were sure were going into the end zone? Might be a neat thing to build up over the season.

10

54.08

(10 – 2) / 98

#3 – #26

13

(Beat SEA) Easy come, easy go. Or, I guess in the Bucs case, easy go, easy come. I think. In any case, this win over Seattle let Tampa Bay loop away its loss to Detroit from the week before, in a four team loop of TB=>SEA=>CHI=>DET=>TB. That shoots the Buccaneers back up the charts.

27

53.57

(11 – 4) / 98

#3 – #26

14

(Lost to WAS) Way to faceplant this one, guys. This loss gets looped away in a three team loop with Houston, which was a win Jacksonville had already lost in a three team loop with Kansas City. I have some sympathy for Jacksonville, but I’ve never really been convinced that they were a strong team, and so I’m not surprised that they’re likely to stay at home for the postseason.

15

52.55

(10 – 5) / 98

#5 – #24

15

(Beat CLE) Baltimore takes care of Cleveland in preparation for their BIG GAME this weekend…getting the chance to create a season split with Cincinnati! Watch out for Shipley and Simpson, guys!

16

52.55

(7 – 2) / 98

#3 – #27

16

(Lost to IND) Alright, so what happened to Oakland? Well, it was their own fault–losing this game caused them to drop. But only because it sunk the Chargers, who the Raiders were sitting on top of (FORESHADOWING!). In my usual style, I’ll leave the details for later, thus giving me more time to think of witty things to say.

5

52.04

(9 – 5) / 98

#5 – #26

17

(Lost to TB) Matt Hasselbeck looked really old on Sunday. Of course, coming up gimpy on a run when no one hits you will do that. And this guy was the developmental QB of the future for the Packers early in Favre’s career. Think about THAT.

19

49.49

(7 – 8) / 98

#8 – #25

18

(Beat PHI) Normally, the only division rival I root for is the Lions, because I feel sorry for them. But I was rooting for the Vikings last night, and good on them for pulling one out. Of course, if they spend 3 years starting Joe Webb in an attempt to develop him into a star, Minnesota might make my pity list, too.

17

48.98

(5 – 7) / 98

#5 – #28

19

(Beat SD) The win gets looped away in a three team loop with the Colts, which actually does remove a beatloss for the Bengals, which is nice. I kind of felt like the Bengals were better than a 2 win team. Not much better, mind you, but better. Still has to be a disappointing season in Cincinnati. Maybe they can win this week and cause all of Baltimore (who reads Beatpaths) to jump out a window.

20

48.98

(3 – 5) / 98

#4 – #29

20

(Lost to KC) This loss gets looped away in a three team loop with Oakland, which was already looped away for Tennessee. Tennessee has a lot of talent, but they need to figure out this QB situation quickly. I think we all know Kerry Collins isn’t the answer, and I don’t see how they could credibly bring back Vince Young (although I still think the only time they looked competitive was when he was on the field). Maybe a trade for Matt Flynn is in order?

18

47.45

(0 – 5) / 98

#5 – #32

21

(Beat DAL) Well, THAT was unexpected. And what’s more, it stuck! The ARI=>DAL link was not looped away. Just another point of evidence in the…uh…”loopmentum” of strength-of-schedule games.

23

46.43

(3 – 10) / 98

#9 – #29

22

(Lost to BAL) I’m starting to get the feelings I had last year about Josh Freeman about Colt McCoy this year. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. File that away for fantasy football next year.

22

45.41

(3 – 12) / 98

#10 – #29

23

(Beat SF) The win over the 49ers (which, for awhile, I was deathly afraid wasn’t going to happen) creates a season split, which breaks up three team loops with the Panthers and Chargers, giving the Rams those wins back. Which is nice, but the big story here is the Buccaneers. Since they Escaped From (under) Detroit, they let the Rams (who are under them) rise up the rankings as well. This team might be awful according to beatpaths, but at least they could finish with a .500 record, which is why I’m rooting for them this week. Well, that, and I live in St. Louis.

28

44.90

(6 – 16) / 98

#11 – #27

24

(Lost to CIN) Okay, so what did happen to San Diego? Well, remember that due to this loss AND due to Oakland’s loss to Indianapolis (either would have been sufficient), they lost their beatwin over Indianapolis. Which was the ENTIRE cause of their support last week (and several other teams, too). Without that, they fell down the charts. They’re also now back below the Rams, to add insult to injury. And out of the playoffs. Way to go, San Diego.

7

40.31

(0 – 19) / 98

#12 – #32

25

(Beat JAC) Redskins move up a bit because the Rams rise. What are the chances that Redskins go for a full season with Rex Grossman next year? I actually don’t hate the idea, if you can draft a QB for the future who you expect to take over the next year (or that year if things go south). Rex Grossman may not be a good QB, but he’s not awful, and more importantly he’s easy to boot to the bench when the new guy is ready.

30

40.31

(0 – 19) / 98

#12 – #32

26

(Lost to NE) You know, given the huge stable of running backs that the Bills were stockpiling, it’s funny to me that their passing offense has been their best part this season. I don’t know what it’s going to take to be competitive in the near future, but hopefully they’ll be fun while we wait.

24

39.80

(1 – 21) / 98

#12 – #31

27

(Lost to ARI) So, I mentioned how the Cowboys fell a bit and hurt some teams, right? Well, it turns out that they fell because the Lions fell. I’ll go over that in a bit, but honestly, you should be able to guess that one.

21

37.76

(2 – 26) / 98

#16 – #30

28

(Lost to DEN) This loss gets looped away in a three team loop with Oakland, and that win was already looped away, so no big change for the Texans. I guess it’s back to the drawing board for the Texans. At least they have good players in the most important positions.

25

33.67

(0 – 32) / 98

#18 – #32

29

(Beat MIA) Congratulations Detroit! Unfortunately for you, this win gets looped away by your loss to Minnesota. But you can get that back if you earn the season split next week! Oh, and you lost all your support when you lost your beatwin to Tampa Bay, dragging you and several other teams down. But hey, draft time is coming up!

26

29.59

(0 – 40) / 98

#18 – #32

30

(Lost to PIT) The Panthers are truly awful. But they benefit from St Louis splitting with San Francisco, which gave them back their win over the 49ers. I was just about to wish the Panthers good luck next season, and it just occurred to me the massive amount of awful Luck puns we’re going to see over the next year. So we have that to look forward to, I guess.

32

28.57

(2 – 44) / 98

#19 – #30

31

(Lost to STL) You heard the story–49ers under the Panthers, fall down to 2nd to last. For a team that did not look like it really belonged on the same field with the Rams (who are still deservedly below .500, mind you), the 49ers were able to do an admirable job of staying in the game. Top of the ToDo list for next year: get a QB not named Smith (sorry, Akili!).

29

25.00

(1 – 50) / 98

#21 – #31

32

(Beat HOU) So, I know the season’s not over yet. But let’s say this is how it stands. Would you give the Broncos the top pick in the draft? Because that’s what Beatpaths would do. I’m torn, because I think both the Panthers and the Broncos have looked pretty bad this season. But the Broncos have the excuse of a fair amount of injuries IIRC, including Elvis Dumervil. If they got the top pick, that could be a Tim Duncan situation going on there, except multiplied by 5/22 because of more players in the NFL than the NBA. Er, I think I lost the point somewhere back there.

31

20.41

(0 – 58) / 98

#23 – #32

9 Responses to 2010 NFL Week 16 Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. Alternator says:

    Seems to me that this season, with all the late division games, is giving a good showcase for why Iterative might be a more descriptive choices than Standard. One early loss by Baltimore to a division rival is holding the Ravens down into the middle of the pack, when they really should be one of the top few teams.

  2. Referee says:

    OK, I think I need a quick extensive course on EdgePower. At first I thought that these numbers were the number of teams you had a beatpath/beatloss, but obviously, if that was the case, things like 62-0 and 0-58 wouldn’t be possible).

    Also, I don’t know what all those other numbers mean. Take my team, though you evil guy laughed at them. It says 62.24 (24-0)/98 #1 – #20 and I think the only one that I can figure out is the 62.24

  3. The MOOSE says:

    I have to say, I do like the Iterative graph after the final week. The highest 6 AFC teams are the playoff entrants. The NFC teams are 5 of 6, with of course SEA being in despite being rank #21. Iterative believes NYG should be the 12th playoff entrant… and they were the next team in.

    This is the first week that NE has been on top of all 3 methods, so each “predicts” NE will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They all disagree for the NFC though, Standard picking PHI, Iterative picking ATL, and Weighted picking GB.

    Since I’m a superstitious NE fan, if NE makes it, I’ll guess ATL will be in from the NFC because in 6 SB appearances, NE has faced 6 different NFC teams. ATL is the only one of those 3 they haven’t already faced.

  4. Alternator says:

    As vindication of my prior statement, Baltimore earns the split and climbs right back to place amongst the top teams.

  5. JT says:

    A while back I figured that a SEA -> STL result in week 17 would make SEA -> CHI come back in the graph, but another 4 team loop that includes DET and TB picks up the slack to keep SEA -> CHI out of the graph. Good thing Chicago swept Detroit, otherwise we would’ve seen that path return.

  6. Referee says:

    So, why was my comment asking about an extensive how-to of Edgepower deleted?

  7. The MOOSE says:

    No update this week?

  8. Kenneth says:

    Referee: I don’t think that your comment got deleted, I think it just got caught up in our spam filters, which we are admittedly slow at going through.

    The MOOSE: TT was on vacation, and my computer has been f’ed up, so it took us some time to get the updates out. The graph is out now, though, and I’m going to try and have the rankings done for tomorrow morning.

  9. ThunderThumbs says:

    #1-20 means that it is possible for that team to be ranked anywhere between #1 and #20 while still respecting the graph. It means that there are twelve teams they have beatpaths to, while no teams have beatpaths to them.

    EdgePower is actually talking about the computer science term edge. It’s the arrows. It’s the number of arrows, or victories/losses, above and below a team. (Although some of them might be hidden in the graph.)

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