2010 NFL Conference Round Beatpaths Power Rankings

Hey folks! Kenneth here with the rankings going into the Super Bowl! I know you’re all excited to hear who’s ranked where going into the big game, so let’s get to it!

But first…for the ease of glory/ridicule, let’s put the official pick right up here. And believe me–it’s a close one. Neither the Packers nor the Steelers have a beatloss, which means that neither of them have a beatpath to each other. And that means we have to go to the rankings. The Steelers are ranked very high at #3. But the Packers, just like last week, are ranked #1. That’s pretty close, and if it was a home game for the Steelers you might go that way. In fact, you could still see it happening. But the official Beatpaths.com pick is the Packers.

You can find the graph for this week here.

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat CHI) Yes, yes. The Packers are back on top for a second straight week. Their 3rd victory against the Bears also helped by creating a 3 team loop with Miami. That loss had already been looped away, but in 3 four team loops involving their wins over Buffalo, Dallas, and Philadelphia (their first one). So, the win over the Bears gave them back some wins. It’s not a ton, but every bit helps.

1

80.36

(68 – 0) / 112

#1 – #8

2

(Bye) The Eagles spend a second week in the number 2 spot. As mentioned, one of their loops got broken by MIA=>GB going out at the 3 team level–a four team loop of DET=>MIA=>GB =>PHI=>DET. While that doubled up the Eagles under the pack, it also gave them back their win over Detroit…which is nice, I guess.

2

76.79

(62 – 2) / 112

#2 – #11

3

(Beat NYJ) Meanwhile, the Steelers’ win over the Jets does some giving-backing of their own. It created a season split with the Jets, which broke up a three team loop that had existed with Baltimore. That gave Pittsburgh back a win over Baltimore, although they already had a beatpath through Atlanta, so no huge gain for them.

3

76.34

(59 – 0) / 112

#1 – #13

4

(Bye) No change for the Falcons, who are staring up at the two Super Bowl contenders. The bad news for Atlanta fans is that recent teams that win the NFC South have a bad habit of coughing it up the next season.

4

68.75

(46 – 4) / 112

#4 – #15

5

(Bye) I’m just starting to get into mock drafts again, which is reminding me of the obscene fact that the Patriots have 3 picks out of the first 33 this year. Way to go, Raiders and Panthers!

5

68.75

(42 – 0) / 112

#1 – #12

6

(Lost to PIT) Well, the Jets gave it their all, but it was not to be this week. The immediate question that comes to mind is whether they’re going to try to ride Tomlinson again. Can you get another year out of him?

6

68.30

(41 – 0) / 112

#1 – #13

7

(Bye) As mentioned, the Ravens have a three team loop busted up that causes them to have a direct beatloss to the Steelers again. And they don’t get a win over the Jets back because there is still a three team loop between those two and the Patriots.

7

63.39

(35 – 5) / 112

#5 – #16

8

(Bye) Am I the only person who is wondering what happened to Reggie Wayne this season? It seems like he was never making huge impacts. Very unlike him.

8

63.39

(32 – 2) / 112

#3 – #15

9

(Bye) A typo originally had the Giants losing to the Steelers last week instead of the Jets. That’s for the best–being under the Steelers would have added more to the Giant’s pile. Not enough to matter, but some.

9

59.38

(27 – 6) / 112

#6 – #17

10

(Lost to GB) Ah, how the mighty have fallen. Not this week, but overall. This loss formed a three team loop with Miami, thus costing the Bears their win over the Dolphins. I just want to say that this whole Jay Cutler nonsense is completely stupid. So what if he’s not super-rah-rah like you want him to be. It’s not like there are tons of great QBs out there to just go grab. If you have a good quarterback, you need to work with him. And while Jay Cutler might not be top 5 material, he is a good QB.

10

57.14

(16 – 0) / 112

#1 – #20

11

(Bye) I have to imagine that the Saints are cutting Reggie Bush. Right? Certainly you can find a good receiving back for less. Which then makes it interesting where he’s headed to next…

11

55.80

(13 – 0) / 112

#1 – #23

12

(Bye) By now, if you’re paying attention to the numbers on both sides of this table, you might have noticed that none of the rankings have changed yet. That’s in fact going to be the case for all the teams this week; remarkably, though some did have changes in their graph and edgepower, no team changed enough to move in the rankings. Strange…

12

54.91

(20 – 9) / 112

#6 – #22

13

(Bye) The Raiders at least did the league the favor of not giving the Patriots a top-5 pick by having a decent enough season. Actually, this is a pretty decent argument against trading players for picks–if you trade a good enough player, the team will do better and thus the pick you get will be worth less.

13

54.46

(11 – 1) / 112

#2 – #25

14

(Bye) I know it’s a bit old, but I want to go back to the Texans’ hiring of Wade Phillips. What do you do with Mario Williams in a 3-4? Assuming Phillips goes that way, what do you do? I don’t know if he can drop back well enough to play OLB, and he’d be wasted as a 3-4 DE. I’d feel sad if he got Jonathan Vilma’d the next few years…

14

51.34

(16 – 13) / 112

#10 – #21

15

(Bye) So apparently there’s movement on an NFL stadium in LA. I only mention this because the Jaguars seem like the best team to move there. The way I hear it, nobody shows up for games in that city.

15

50.45

(9 – 8) / 112

#7 – #25

16

(Bye) Kansas City rounds up the top half of the rankings. That might seem disappointing for a team that had a good season, but I think you have to look at their season as a stepping stone. They’re not a finished product…yet.

16

49.55

(15 – 16) / 112

#11 – #22

17

(Bye) It seems like there was big changes for Detroit. After all, the 3 four team loops that got broken up for Green Bay also got broken up for Detroit (they all had the path DET=>MIA=>GB). But there are still four team loops to take care of the Lions’ losses to Buffalo and Dallas, so it’s only a loss to the Eagles that they gain.

17

49.11

(9 – 11) / 112

#8 – #25

18

(Bye) One real change this week is that Dallas got put under Green Bay. Thus, the Cowboys are directly under 3 teams with no beatlosses, instead of 2.

18

48.66

(0 – 3) / 112

#4 – #32

19

(Bye) Have I questioned Sparano’s job security yet? For as long as that regime has been there, they don’t appear to be any closer to solving the QB situation. Unless there’s more to Henne than what I saw this season (which wasn’t that much, really; I’m an NFC guy).

19

48.66

(6 – 9) / 112

#7 – #26

20

(Bye) Here’s my dream scenario: the Vikings draft a 1st round QB, and then Brett Favre announced he’s coming back a week later. Of course, knowing my luck that would probably somehow cause labor negotiations to fail and we’d all have no football (don’t ask me how, I just don’t trust Favre). So maybe I should just hope for some calm this offseason.

20

48.21

(0 – 4) / 112

#5 – #32

21

(Bye) So…Jeff Fisher is out as well. Have to say I didn’t see that coming. I haven’t quite got a hold of the situation–did he leave on his own or was he forced out? His press conference seemed to indicate he left on his own, but that seems off to me. If he was forced out, nice of the Titans to wait until all the head coaching jobs were filled to do it.

21

43.75

(0 – 14) / 112

#10 – #32

22

(Bye) I gotta say, I think Colt McCoy could be the guy. And they have Joe Thomas, too. Now all they need is another player on offense to make a real Triplets and they’d really be cooking (no, Josh Cribbs does not count).

22

42.41

(4 – 21) / 112

#12 – #28

23

(Bye) I didn’t pay close attention to this team. What happened to Golden Tate? Last I heard he was stealing doughnuts–which made me smile so much I instantly liked him. Is he just taking the normal slow WR learning curve path to the NFL?

23

41.52

(5 – 24) / 112

#13 – #28

24

(Bye) Buffalo loses a four team loop that was looping away their loss to the Packers. Shockingly, this doesn’t change much. They were under the Packers already, of course.

24

40.18

(5 – 27) / 112

#14 – #27

25

(Bye) If I were the Rams, I think I’d go defense in the offseason. I think you can ride Jackson another year at RB, and if the WRs are healthy they’re not awful. Meanwhile, there’s a good base on the defense but you could use more players.

25

39.29

(8 – 32) / 112

#17 – #26

26

(Bye) Can you draft special teams players in the first round? Not kickers or returners, just blockers and gunners and what not. Because honestly, looking at the stats from last year, it seems like it might be a good idea.

26

34.82

(1 – 35) / 112

#18 – #31

27

(Bye) So far Mike Shanahan has yet to wise up and bolt out of town.

27

33.93

(0 – 36) / 112

#18 – #32

28

(Bye) I was about to make a joke about how Cincinnati fans couldn’t even look forward to baseball season, but I forgot that the Reds were actually good last year. You go, Ohio.

28

32.14

(4 – 44) / 112

#18 – #28

29

(Bye) Important question for the Panthers: is Steve Smith done?

29

16.07

(3 – 79) / 112

#24 – #29

30

(Bye) This is really one of the teams I’m interested in for next season. This team could go lots of different ways, and I want to see how it shakes out.

30

13.39

(2 – 84) / 112

#25 – #30

31

(Bye) I feel like the Cardinals are one Larry Fitzgerald “get me out of here” trade demands from collapsing completely. Am I the only one who is sensing that coming?

31

11.16

(0 – 87) / 112

#26 – #32

32

(Bye) Once again, the Broncos are in last. They do have the advantage of playing in the AFC West, which should give them the opportunity to compete soon.

32

7.59

(0 – 95) / 112

#27 – #32

One Response to 2010 NFL Conference Round Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. The MOOSE says:

    Nice prediction win for the Standard method considering both Iterative and Weighted had PIT winning. All three methods had both teams in the top 3.

    Now that football is over, don’t forget to keep an eye on how things go in the other leagues until it’s time for football season again (if there even is a season next year!)

    As you’d expect SA is #1 in the Standard NBA graph. The only surprise in the top 5 is DAL who is a little higher than you’d expect due to their recent win over BOS.

    In the NHL, TB is on top right now with the Eastern Conference’s best team (PHI) coming in at 4th.

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