2010 NFL Super Bowl Beatpaths Power Rankings

Hey all! This is Kenneth here, with the last rankings for the 2010 NFL Season. Hey, I know it’s been even a week later than TT, but you should enjoy the spacing! Who knows when we’ll have pro football again; we need to make it last as long as possible. In all seriousness, it was a pretty interesting season; I hope you all enjoyed it.

The effect of one game sometimes makes a big difference in the graph, but not this time. Instead, the graph is mostly stable (but not entirely!). Thus, most of my commentary is going to be based on looking to the future and not on graph stuff. I’m sure that will be boring to some of you, but there’s not much to talk about.

Anyway, let’s get to the rankings!

You can find the graph for this week here.

Rank Team Notes Last Week EdgePower

1

(Beat PIT) Well, the Packers got it done. They were able to beat the Steelers in a fairly sloppy game, my opinion. The win over the Steelers had only one effect–it formed a beatloop of GB=>PIT=>MIA=>GB. But the loss to Miami was already looped away by the Packer’s win over Chicago, so there was no gain for the Packers. But they’re still #1, so they can enjoy that. I know there’s a lot of talk about how the Packers are set to be a dynasty, since they’ve got so many injured starters returning, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. It seems like a fair amount of those guys were their worst starters, and I’m not certain the starters are going to upgrade the situation that much. I’m not saying they won’t be good–they will–but I won’t expect them to become incredibly better.

1

80.63

(68 – 0) / 111

#1 – #8

2

(Bye) Philadelphia maintains the number 2 ranking. I hear a lot of people talk about how the Eagles HAVE to keep Kolb to back up Vick, but I think if you are committed to Vick, you should probably trade Kolb. It’s just a huge resource to not get any value out of. People think about the potential loss from Vick getting injured, but don’t count the gain you could get from a player you get for Kolb. If Vick is injured for 4 games over the season, you might lose some of them that you would win. But what if you had a stud left tackle, or a great cornerback or pass rusher? Wouldn’t that make you better in all your games, and help you in the games Vick misses as well? And if Vick gets lost for the season, is Kolb going to save you?

2

77.03

(62 – 2) / 111

#2 – #11

3

(Lost to GB) It was a decent effort by the Steelers, but fell short. Unlike the Packers, this loss cost them something–a beatwin over the Dolphins. I think people are being too hard on Mendenhall; I think Roethlisberger made huge mistakes, too. That pick-6 was devastating. And before you say that he was forced into it by the defense, it’s not like Mendenhall wasn’t hit by two guys at the same time. But the real story to me was the lack of the Steelers’ pass rush–they just never seemed to get to Rodgers. I know he’s an elusive quarterback, but I expected him to be under more heat than he was. I wonder if Pittsburgh is going to start falling off soon; it seems like a lot of key players are getting old and wearing down. Polamalu hasn’t been himself, and Hines Ward seems ready to retire. I’d feel better about Ward leaving if they still had Santonio Holmes, but I’m not sure Mike Wallace can pick up the slack.

3

76.13

(58 – 0) / 111

#1 – #13

4

(Bye) I wonder how much longer Tony Gonzalez can be an above average tight end (actually, I’m not sure he was this season). I think the Falcons have to hope he can, because they don’t seem to have many targets behind Roddy White. Unless Michael Jenkins steps up, I think that’s what the Falcons should go after this offseason…or maybe an impact player on defense.

4

68.92

(46 – 4) / 111

#4 – #15

5

(Bye) So, the Patriots had the best regular season record, and have a lot of picks to go with that. You can bet they’ll get a lot of value out of it, too. Even with Randy Moss or someone like him, I think the offense is probably pretty good…investing more in the defense seems like a sound idea to me.

5

68.92

(42 – 0) / 111

#1 – #12

6

(Bye) The Jets seem to have it all, especially if they keep Santonio Holmes. Honestly, the thing this team needs most is continued improvement from Mark Sanchez, and you can’t draft that. The Jets might be in the enviable position of just being able to draft the “Best Player Available”.

6

68.47

(41 – 0) / 111

#1 – #13

7

(Bye) My thought is that the Ravens need better WRs. The problem is, they needed that last offseason too, and they went out and tried to fix it. And now they still need better production from that position. Normally, I don’t advocate drafting a WR when you need one right away because they’re almost never ready, but the Ravens might be in a good position to do it: they have a lot of veterans who, if they bounce back, can hold the fort while the rookie develops.

7

63.51

(35 – 5) / 111

#5 – #16

8

(Bye) What do the Colts need? Somebody to teach Peyton Manning how to read financial statements, maybe? Actually, I think that was a really arrogant and stupid thing for the Panther’s owner to say. I mean, come on, he’s the owner of the Panthers–who cares what he thinks? Anyway, the Colts clearly need to figure out who is going to come back healthy and at the same level as before. If everyone bounces back, they could be ok. Although they still need to work on that offensive line.

8

63.51

(32 – 2) / 111

#3 – #15

9

(Bye) My guess for the Giants is to improve the back seven. They’ve got so much in the defensive line, but they seem to pay less attention to the other guys–especially linebackers. I wonder about the offensive line, too–it’s my impression that they’ve slipped off from the high of a few years ago.

9

59.46

(27 – 6) / 111

#6 – #17

10

(Bye) Well, in theory, I should at least know this team’s needs. I would say the draft should target three areas: OL, OL, and OL. Sure, there are some other positions this team could use help at (like DB) but the offensive line was awful and has some guys just holding on. They don’t have to draft guys to come in right away necessarily (although I’d like it if they did), but an infusion of talent is definitely necessary.

10

57.21

(16 – 0) / 111

#1 – #20

11

(Bye) The Saints seemed to wither down the stretch, which is weird. Although I guess every single RB in the state of Louisiana breaking his leg will do that. The Saints probably should focus on defense. If they could get someone at safety, they could sit Roman Harper, which would probably be best for everyone involved.

11

55.86

(13 – 0) / 111

#1 – #23

12

(Bye) Tampa! I’m going to really be interested in this team next season. I feel like they should get some more running mates for Josh Freeman. The kid is ready to take off. Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow are good, but I wonder about LeGarrette Blount. If he’s good, then I guess defense is the call. There’s probably going to be a need for a changing of the guard at CB, what with Ronde Barber getting up there.

12

54.95

(20 – 9) / 111

#6 – #22

13

(Bye) Well, my offseason suggestion for the Raiders is almost always the same–get rid of the crazy owner. But if that’s not happening, well…they surely need Asomugh back. And I’d probably suggest a long-term answer at QB, too. Now is the perfect time for that, when you have a veteran who can hold down the fort for awhile. Not that I want to doom a highly regarded QB to Oakland…

13

54.50

(11 – 1) / 111

#2 – #25

14

(Bye) Clearly, the need in Houston is for more and better defense. Unfortunately, they’re shifting to a 3-4, and their best player is a DE–and those guys aren’t always impact players in a 3-4. I know Wade Phillip’s D is a bit different, but still…I can’t help but worry that the Texans are going to neutralize Williams. Unless they put him at LB, which would be interesting. In any case, they clearly need better DBs. And some more LBs, if they’re going to run 4 out there.

14

51.35

(16 – 13) / 111

#10 – #21

15

(Bye) I guess the team is doing okay on offense…but beyond MJD, I don’t really feel any of their WRs. Unfortunately, I don’t think they can get help for that in the draft. MOAR defense is needed! Cornerbacks are always a good idea in the AFC South, too…

15

50.45

(9 – 8) / 111

#7 – #25

16

(Bye) I like what the Chiefs have on offense, so I’m going defense here too. The problem is, I don’t watch a ton of AFC games so I’m not sure what’s needed. In the few games I did see, I liked what their secondary was doing, so I think a better pash rush is in order.

16

49.55

(15 – 16) / 111

#11 – #22

17

(Bye) I hate to say it, but I think what the Lions need to do is give up on Matthew Stafford. I just don’t think he’s going to be healthy, and his development has been stunted by all the injuries he’s taken. It’s probably not a good idea to take another high draft pick though. I might go with Shaun Hill again, actually.

17

49.10

(9 – 11) / 111

#8 – #25

18

(Bye) Yes! Here we go! The one team that actually changed this week! As mentioned above, the Steelers losing to the Packers looped away their win over the Dolphins. Now, of course, the Steelers still have a beatpath to the Dolphins, but that still means a loss of a “hidden” beatpath. Losing that negative edge allows the Dolphins to go up one point in edgepower…which is just enough to break the tie they were in with the Cowboys. As for the Dolphins offseason…there’s a lot of talk about them going for a running back to replace Ricky Williams and/or Ronnie Brown. Sounds like a decent idea, but I don’t like drafting RBs high; I might spend more on the defense. It seems like they have some impact guys there; if they add another, they might really have something.

19

49.10

(6 – 8) / 111

#7 – #26

19

(Bye) Too bad for the Cowboys. They suffer on the last week of the season. I’m not sure what to recommend for the Cowboys. Certainly, it seems like they have enough talent. But some offensive line help can always be useful.

18

48.65

(0 – 3) / 111

#4 – #32

20

(Bye) The Vikings need is clear: QB. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that putting the pressure of trying to bring this team back to the NFC Championship game is something you’d want to put on the shoulders of Cam Newton or Ryan Gabbert or whomever. A veteran is probably the answer there. Meanwhile, the team didn’t tag Sydney Rice. It seems like a big risk to maybe lose him. Maybe a WR is in order.

20

48.20

(0 – 4) / 111

#5 – #32

21

(Bye) You can at least divide the Texans’ offseason needs in half right away–defense only. The question is, which is more important–the secondary, or the front 7 and their new 3-4 look? This is a case where the possibility of no free agency–or at least, free agency after the draft–could really hurt the Texans. With so many holes to fill, you’d rather know what holes were left before you headed into the draft. All positions are available in the draft; not so in free agency.

21

44.14

(0 – 13) / 111

#10 – #32

22

(Bye) I really thought the Browns were going to come out well when they drafted all of those WRs a few years ago (the Mohammed Massoquai class). But they don’t really seem to have come around. I guess some more playmakers would be in order, though I could see some benefit for the Browns in a defensive player, too. The Browns could be best off going for the best player available.

22

42.34

(4 – 21) / 111

#12 – #28

23

(Bye) Seattle needs to figure out how to make Marshawn Lynch do that every game, is what they need. The bigger issue in my mind is quarterback (isn’t it always?). I guess I could see trying to get one more year out of Hasselbeck, but I’d sure like to have an idea where I was going to leap to once that platform vanishes. Is Charlie Whitehurst the answer, or do you need to get another QB of the future?

23

41.44

(5 – 24) / 111

#13 – #28

24

(Bye) There’s word that Buffalo is cuckoo for Cam Newton, supposedly. I guess this fits my preferred method of getting a new prospect while you have a credible veteran to hold the fort, but I guess I’m just not a Newton believer. I’d probably look defense, if I were the Bills.

24

40.09

(5 – 27) / 111

#14 – #27

25

(Bye) The word around here is WR. I don’t know if I agree–I thought their WRs were decent, before they all got hurt. I mean, not great, but not so dire that you had to do whatever you could to fix it. I’d rather see the team add more beef to the defense–another good pass rusher could really spice things up. But if a good WR prospect is available in the draft, some more talent there wouldn’t hurt.

25

39.19

(8 – 32) / 111

#17 – #26

26

(Bye) We’ve all heard it several times now. This Chargers team was very good on offense, very good on defense, and yet somehow still was only mediocre at best. I feel like they could use a posession WR–even if you get Vincent Jackson back for a whole season, I think the offense could benefit from some consistency added to their big-lay ability. Although, maybe it would help if one of their RBs stepped up.

26

34.68

(1 – 35) / 111

#18 – #31

27

(Bye) Word is the Redskins are QB crazy. How weird that they’re going after it again, only a year after trading for McNabb. Not that they’re wrong to do so. I still like McNabb, but I think it’s obvious he’s not going to make it work in Washington. A rookie is probably a bad idea, though. I can’t imagine any rookie being able to handle that pressure cooker. I might like to see some other offensive talent make its way to the nation’s capital though.

27

33.78

(0 – 36) / 111

#18 – #32

28

(Bye) Cincy needs to figure out what’s going to happen with Carson Palmer. It seems like they have more pressing immediate concerns, but I’d feel much better about the long term arc of the franchise if they knew what was going to happen at the QB position. I feel like I’m overstressing QBs in this writeup…

28

32.43

(4 – 43) / 111

#18 – #28

29

(Bye) The Panthers need a lot of help. It sounds like they’re going to go defense with the top pick, which makes sense. I don’t know that they’re going to get any better on offense any time soon (their QBs are just not ready), and their new coach is a defensive guy. Maybe if they focus on that side of the ball they approach respectability relatively quickly.

29

16.22

(3 – 78) / 111

#24 – #29

30

(Bye) Here I go again; I’m going to recommend better QB play for a team. The problem is, there just aren’t that many QBs to go around. Somebody’s bound to get stuck with awful play at that position. Maybe that’s why Harbaugh seems to be making nice with Alex Smith. Better the mediocre player you know than the one you don’t.

30

13.51

(2 – 83) / 111

#25 – #30

31

(Bye) Well, this is just too easy. But the Cardinals really need to do something. I can’t imagine that Larry Fitzgerald is going to tolerate this much longer, and if he leaves, the vaunted Arizona offense is going to be a distant memory. Just getting someone who is only okay would be huge (Kyle Orton, maybe?). Draft-wise, I’d suggest defense; I don’t think there’s any real way to improve the offense outside of a better QB. They could get some good use from an impact defender, though.

31

11.26

(0 – 86) / 111

#26 – #32

32

(Bye) I feel weird suggesting something for the team of the man who runs this site. Also, I’m not sure what to suggest. I think the defense will be much better when they get back Elvis Dumervil (he is coming back, right?). But I don’t know how much better you can make the offense. If you’re going to go with Tebow, then I guess that’s just something you have to do. Maybe another WR is in order–even if Brandon Lloyd could have that year again, you could still use more targets to help out.

32

7.66

(0 – 94) / 111

#27 – #32

4 Responses to 2010 NFL Super Bowl Beatpaths Power Rankings

  1. ThunderThumbs says:

    As for Denver’s offense, I think the things that could be improved are a good downhill runner (Moreno is more an open-space receiving back), a right tackle, a left guard, and most of all, a good dual-threat tight end.

    Tebow will be fine with some big targets – Decker is going to be a big name for him. And with the weapons Tebow will have, opposing teams won’t be able to crowd the box to limit Tebow’s mobility.

    If it’s Orton, I’m not as optimistic – he’s not mobile and I’m not sure he’ll do as well without McDaniels.

    Defense… ugh… Dumervil isn’t enough. We honestly don’t have *any* linebackers that are perfect fits. Maybe DJ Williams at Will, but he’s getting unreliable. The others are backups at best. We’re thin on young secondary. For DL I think adding one kickass tackle will do fine, but for the rest, I’m at a loss.

  2. If Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley can stay healthy and productive next season (whenever that might be), there’s a lot of potential for improvement on the offensive side.

  3. The MOOSE says:

    Graphs for Week 1 of the new 2011 season are up over at BeatGraphs. I hope we’ll be seeing activity here this year.

  4. The MOOSE says:

    Graphs for Week 2 are up at BeatGraphs.com if anyone still follows.

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