Author Archives: Tom

Ranking Analysis – Conference Championship

Hey folks, Tom here with the analysis of ranking changes from the conference championship games. No big movers based on the results of the championships. The graph is getting more stable, mostly as a function of fewer games being played each week. Few upsets means that the ranking changes result in much less variance. Pick […]

Ranking Analysis – Divisional Round

Hey folks, Tom here with the ranking analysis for last week’s divisional round playoff games. No big movers this week, and the overall numbers stay quite the same as last week. As you can see, the stability remains the same as last week, which is expected given the small number of games, and the absorption […]

Ranking Analysis – Wildcard Round

Hello folks, sorry I’m late and posting in the middle of the divisional round, but here is the analysis of the rankings after the Wildcard round. One big mover as a result of the Wildcard games, and that is Denver—a good illustration of how seemingly unrelated games can affect the system’s overall assessment of a […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 16

Tom here with the analysis of the Week 16 rankings. Two big movers this past week: the NY Jets and Oakland. Despite beating Indianapolis, the NY Jets’s victory is looped away, while at the same time the support drops out from underneath them. Oakland does what they do best—lose to bad teams after beating good […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 15

Tom here with the analysis of stability in this week’s rankings, and the confidence of picks for this week’s matchups. Two big movers this week: Arizona dropping from 13th to 23rd, and Oakland rising from 24th to 13th. Do-si-do! Overall a big drop in the number of ranking changes. Very few big shifts at all […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 14

Hey everyone, Tom here—a bit behind this week, but about 240 undergraduates needed their final exams graded. The two big movers this week were Houston (for the third week in a row) and Miami. The number of rank changes this week (112) is the same as Weeks 4 & 7, but the variance is much […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 13

Hello folks, time for the weekly ranking analysis. The changes in the ranks following Week 13’s games were a slight uptick from last week. I’ve added a trendline, which seems appropriate at this point in the season, and it indicates that the rankings are, in general, increasingly stable over time. You can see by comparing […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 12

Tom here with the analysis of Week 12’s ranking changes. A slight decline since last week. Only two teams making big moves: Houston and Jacksonville, the first which looks better than its record and the second which looks worse than its record. Houston was pretty consistently ranked in the middle of the pack for the […]

Ranking Analysis – Week 11

Not a tremendous shake-up in the rankings this week. Only two big moves: Washington drops back down following a one-week stint in the middle of the pack; and, the NY Giants regain their stature as a top team after defeating Atlanta. Overall the changes to the rankings seem about par with those made in Week […]