This is a week late in review, but this thread is for discussion of picks records for the 2008 season. Beatpaths was 150-105-1 for 2008. My own personal picks, informed by beatpaths but occasionally overruled, helped by a 3-0 final week, were three games better, for 153-102-1. I believe King Kaufman got to 151-104-1 after [...]
Hey folks, Tom here again. One important aspect to designing a system like Beatpaths is to look for confirmation that the system is indeed getting better as more information is fed into it. I’ve already been looking into one aspect of this, by tracking the stability of the rankings that Beatpaths produces week-on-week. As more [...]
Tom once again—a bit late in the day, but I thought I’d get these up here as the games started in earnest. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Indianapolis-San Diego 79.4 98.2-18.8 WRONG Baltimore-Miami 37.6 82.0-44.4 CORRECT Atlanta-Arizona 26.8 75.0-48.2 WRONG Minnesota-Philadelphia 26.8 83.9-57.1 WRONG Beatpaths seems much more confident [...]
Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up. The picks took a beating last week, but nevertheless, the high confidence picks still did twice as well as the low confidence picks, even on a bad week overall. Here are this week’s: Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of [...]
And it’s the final week of the official picks. We just got pasted in week 16 – the picks went 6-10, for a total record of 141-98-1. I was 2-2 on the personal side, which means I am dead even at 18-18. So far I’ve only been able to match the performance of the beatpaths [...]
Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up: Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result NY Jets-Seattle 93.9 97.9-4.0 WRONG Tampa Bay-San Diego 70.5 88.0-17.5 WRONG Indianapolis-Jacksonville 63.2 71.2-8.0 CORRECT Denver-Buffalo 60.2 81.6-21.4 WRONG New Orleans-Detroit 41.7 41.7-0.0 CORRECT Houston-Oakland [...]
Thursday again, and the weeks keep seeming to get shorter. The picks were 9-7 last week, for a total record of 135-88-1. I was 0-2 on the personal picks, since I picked both Arizona and the NY Giants – this brings me back to even on the year, at 16-16. INDIANAPOLIS at Jacksonville: Indianapolis has [...]
Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up: Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner – predicted loser) Result Indianapolis-Detroit 76.1 76.1-0.0 CORRECT NY Jets-Buffalo 74.8 97.9-23.1 CORRECT New England-Oakland 51.3 60.7-9.4 CORRECT Washington-Cincinnati 46.2 50.0-3.8 WRONG Tennessee-Houston 45.7 95.7-50.0 WRONG Philadelphia-Cleveland 31.2 73.3-42.1 [...]
Happy Thursday! The picks were 9-7 last week, for a total record of 115-76-1 126-81-1 (sorry, forgot week 14′s picks). I was 1-0 on the personal picks, or 16-14 for the year. UPDATE: The rest of the picks are in place now. A quick look at how CHI->NO changed the rankings – the top 6 [...]
Hi ho BeatPath fans! Kenneth back with the commentary, and if you thought previous weeks had controversy, well, you haven’t seen anything yet! Rank Team Notes Last Week BeatPower 1 (Beat KC) And thus our proprietor achieves his goals with beatpaths, and gets the Broncos ranked on top. No, kidding. But how did the Broncos [...]