Tom here with the “confidence” ratings for this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower ratings for each team. The greater the difference between BeatPower scores, the greater the expectation of the model that the pick is correct. The numbers are taken from the rankings from last week. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of 100) BeatPower comparison(predicted winner [...]
Two weekends ago, the picks were 10-6, for a total record of 106-69-1. I was 1-1 on the personal picks, or 14-12 for the year. Last week the picks were 11-5, for a total record of 117-74-1. I was 1-2 on the personal picks, or 15-14 for the year. I’m finding it hard to beat [...]
Tom here. A little late in the day, but I thought I’d continue to look at BeatPower and the confidence of the model in making each week’s picks. I take the standard picks for Week 13, and then compare the BeatPower numbers for each team from the most recent rankings. The greater the difference between [...]
The Three Thanksgiving picks were made earlier this week, but we’re bumping the entry to get fresh views. Incidentally, if we pay attention to the Thanksgiving games, things are a bit different right now. Dallas is actually ranked #1 due to shedding the Arizona beatloss. None of the picks below are contradicted, though. TENNESSEE at [...]
I thought I’d briefly revisit the results of the BeatPower confidence method of ranking picks. As you can see, the picks the model had higher confidence in all went as predicted. All of the incorrect picks were clustered in the bottom half of the chart, comprising all of the low confidence picks. Matchup(Winner-Loser) “Confidence”(out of [...]
Tom here again. Another subject I’ve been investigating in the comments for the past few weeks is ranking of each week’s picks by the model’s “confidence” in a win or loss. TT gave us the official Beatpaths model’s picks for Week 12, but these picks treat each prediction as equally valid. I’m interested in figuring [...]
Hey folks! My name’s Kenneth…you might have seen my name in some comments at this site. Well, TT asked for some help on the site, and was nice enough to let me help out with writing the commentary on the rankings. We’ll see how that works out for him. Anyway, let’s see how it goes! [...]
Beatpaths was 12-3-1 last week, for a total record of 96-63-1. My “personal picks” were 1-1, so I’m at 13-11 for the year. Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh has a beatpath to Cincinnati and is favored. If Cincinnati wins, it creates a season split with no real change in the graph. New England at MIAMI: Miami [...]
Beatpaths was 9-5 last week, for a total record of 84-60. My “personal picks” that conflict with the Beatpaths picks were 2-1, so I’m at 12-10 for the year. NY JETS at New England: The NY Jets have a long beatpath to New England. Some of the other graph variants have the two teams ranked [...]
Beatpaths was 8-6 last week, for a total record of 75-55. My “personal picks” that conflict with the Beatpaths picks were 1-2, so I’m at 10-9 for the year. Denver at CLEVELAND: Denver could really help themselves with a win by shedding their beatloss to Jacksonville. Cleveland is playing for a beatwin. Cleveland is favored. [...]