Category Archives: Beatpath Tech

Backtesting, Revised

I messed up a bit on the previous bit of backtesting, although the way I messed up was informative. The previous round of backtesting tested the beatflukes variant (not vanilla), and each year had all the game results of the previous seasons in my dataset. So, 2006’s results was using a beatpath graph based off […]


I’ve managed to fire up my old wonky backtesting system. It doesn’t have a lot of ability yet, but it gives some interesting information. Here’s what I’ve found. Year Random uNet Prev. Week Beatloop Str. Fractional BPower/Win/Loop Str. of Beatwins Bucklin UPower UPower/Loop UNet-Lookahead 2004 (84-57) 150-117 166-101 157-110 160-107 164-103 167-100 166-101 161-106 164-103 […]


Here’s a review of Isaacson-Tarbell, which we should compare our picking schemes against this season. Isaacson-Tarbell is “picking for idiots”. And it’s pretty bulletproof – it seems most pick experts can’t outperform it. The picking rules are: Pick the team with the better win-loss record. If they’re tied, pick the home team. Isaacson-Tarbell was 9-7 […]

In Review…

I thought I’d take the opportunity to trace through the general strategy here, both to get my brain clearer for the season, but also to review for whoever is reading. We start out with all the wins and losses for the season so far. The first design choice I made was to ignore points, and […]

Beatloop Removal Approaches

Zooming out as I’m apt to do, another quick/reminder exploration of the various algorithms. This is restricted entirely to the graph methods. The goal here has always been to create a pecking order of the teams, based off of wins and losses and nothing else. This means a DAG – a directed acyclic graph. Acyclic […]

Call For Volunteers

As part of the upcoming redesign for Beatpaths, I’m looking for people who might be interested in posting commentary on the actual front page of the site, as opposed to simply leaving comments. We’ve had a fair amount of interest here from people suggesting new methods, ways to rank the confidence of picks, etc. New […]

Beatpaths Nomenclature

Discussion on different methods are ramping up – I’d like to make one suggestion on nomenclature. Graph Method: Methods that have to do with determining what teams have beatpaths and beatwins to other teams. Examples are the current Standard graph method on this site, the Iterative graph method, and the Beatflukes graph method. Power Method: […]

2008 NFL Week 3 Discussion

Miscellaneous observations: Last week’s power rankings are 10-5 9-6 so far this week. The only two teams with beatpaths to every other team in their division: Denver and Arizona. #31 beat #1, with some awesome direct snap misdirection. And it’s time to start thinking of tiebreaker and rank strategies. There are two stages to determining […]