Beatpaths » NBA http://beatpaths.com The Winning Ways of Winners Sun, 27 Nov 2011 04:35:00 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 2009-12-10 NBA Beatpath Graph and Power Rankings http://beatpaths.com/2009/12/12/2009-12-10-nba-beatpath-graph-and-power-rankings/ http://beatpaths.com/2009/12/12/2009-12-10-nba-beatpath-graph-and-power-rankings/#comments Sat, 12 Dec 2009 09:28:51 +0000 ThunderThumbs http://beatpaths.com/?p=809 I had a bit of extra time tonight, so here is the NBA graph for this season’s regular-season games, through December 10th. The power rankings (after the jump) are compared to the power rankings at the end of last season.

2010-35-nba-clean.png


Rank Team Notes Last Season EdgePower

1

 LA Lakers (Beat Utah)

1

73.85

(52 – 0) / 109

#1 – #12

2

 Boston (Beat Washington)

3

67.89

(39 – 0) / 109

#1 – #15

3

 Atlanta (Beat Chicago)

10

67.89

(39 – 0) / 109

#1 – #15

4

 Orlando (Lost to Utah)

8

62.39

(27 – 0) / 109

#1 – #18

5

 Cleveland (Lost to Houston)

2

61.93

(26 – 0) / 109

#1 – #18

6

 Dallas (Bye)

6

61.47

(25 – 0) / 109

#1 – #20

7

 Utah (Beat Orlando)

12

61.01

(25 – 1) / 109

#2 – #19

8

 Houston (Beat Cleveland)

5

58.72

(21 – 2) / 109

#3 – #21

9

 Portland (Beat Indiana)

7

58.72

(20 – 1) / 109

#2 – #21

10

 Miami (Bye)

15

58.26

(20 – 2) / 109

#3 – #20

11

 San Antonio (Beat Sacramento)

9

56.88

(19 – 4) / 109

#4 – #21

12

 Denver (Lost to Detroit)

4

56.42

(14 – 0) / 109

#1 – #23

13

 Phoenix (Bye)

11

55.96

(15 – 2) / 109

#2 – #22

14

 Oklahoma City (Bye)

26

53.21

(13 – 6) / 109

#6 – #24

15

 New Orleans (Beat Minnesota)

16

50.46

(13 – 12) / 109

#9 – #24

16

 Memphis (Bye)

28

50.46

(2 – 1) / 109

#2 – #28

17

 Toronto (Lost to Milwaukee)

20

48.62

(1 – 4) / 109

#4 – #29

18

 Charlotte (Bye)

21

48.62

(0 – 3) / 109

#3 – #30

19

 Golden State (Beat New Jersey)

23

48.62

(3 – 6) / 109

#7 – #28

20

 New York (Bye)

22

47.71

(2 – 7) / 109

#6 – #29

21

 Milwaukee (Beat Toronto)

25

47.25

(3 – 9) / 109

#8 – #28

22

 Sacramento (Lost to San Antonio)

29

46.79

(2 – 9) / 109

#8 – #28

23

 LA Clippers (Bye)

30

44.50

(9 – 21) / 109

#14 – #25

24

 Chicago (Lost to Atlanta)

17

44.04

(0 – 13) / 109

#11 – #30

25

 Indiana (Lost to Portland)

19

44.04

(1 – 14) / 109

#11 – #29

26

 Detroit (Beat Philadelphia)

13

39.91

(6 – 28) / 109

#16 – #27

27

 Washington (Lost to Boston)

27

35.78

(3 – 34) / 109

#17 – #28

28

 Philadelphia (Lost to Detroit)

18

29.36

(1 – 46) / 109

#18 – #29

29

 Minnesota (Lost to New Orleans)

24

28.90

(1 – 47) / 109

#20 – #29

30

 New Jersey (Lost to Golden State)

14

5.05

(0 – 98) / 109

#27 – #30

]]> http://beatpaths.com/2009/12/12/2009-12-10-nba-beatpath-graph-and-power-rankings/feed/ 1 2008-2009 NBA Season End Beatpath Graph http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/28/2008-2009-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/ http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/28/2008-2009-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/#comments Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:21:48 +0000 ThunderThumbs http://beatpaths.com/?p=558 Second try… In honor of the NBA season starting, here is the beatpath graph of the 2008-2009 season, including the LA Laker’s championship run. And, taking advantage of my earlier error, after the jump you can see how the season-end rankings changed compared to the previous season’s season-end rankings.

Anyone know of a good source of in-season parseable score data? I wouldn’t mind continuing throughout the season, but the source I use – Massey Ratings – seems to only have end-of-season data.

2009-138-nba-clean.png


Rank Team Notes Previous Season EdgePower

1

 LA Lakers (Beat Orlando) Overall, kind of shows how weird it was that Orlando was playing the Lakers instead of Cleveland.

2

90.57

(357 – 0) / 440

#1 – #3

2

 Cleveland (Bye)

14

84.43

(303 – 0) / 440

#1 – #5

3

 Boston (Bye)

1

79.43

(260 – 1) / 440

#2 – #6

4

 Denver (Bye)

7

75.68

(230 – 4) / 440

#3 – #7

5

 Houston (Bye)

10

71.82

(195 – 3) / 440

#2 – #8

6

 Dallas (Bye)

13

71.02

(200 – 15) / 440

#5 – #8

7

 Portland (Bye)

21

64.89

(155 – 24) / 440

#7 – #10

8

 Orlando (Lost to LA Lakers)

9

63.98

(123 – 0) / 440

#1 – #14

9

 San Antonio (Bye)

5

57.27

(96 – 32) / 440

#9 – #15

10

 Atlanta (Bye)

23

56.93

(72 – 11) / 440

#4 – #16

11

 Phoenix (Bye)

8

53.07

(53 – 26) / 440

#7 – #19

12

 Utah (Bye)

3

51.59

(55 – 41) / 440

#10 – #20

13

 Detroit (Bye)

4

48.07

(35 – 52) / 440

#10 – #20

14

 New Jersey (Bye)

19

48.07

(26 – 43) / 440

#10 – #22

15

 Miami (Bye)

30

48.07

(27 – 44) / 440

#9 – #22

16

 New Orleans (Bye)

6

46.25

(14 – 47) / 440

#11 – #25

17

 Chicago (Bye)

18

45.68

(4 – 42) / 440

#9 – #28

18

 Philadelphia (Bye)

22

44.89

(22 – 67) / 440

#12 – #23

19

 Indiana (Bye)

20

43.98

(8 – 61) / 440

#12 – #26

20

 Toronto (Bye)

15

43.41

(12 – 70) / 440

#11 – #25

21

 Charlotte (Bye)

16

42.27

(11 – 79) / 440

#14 – #26

22

 New York (Bye)

28

41.25

(6 – 83) / 440

#13 – #26

23

 Golden State (Bye)

12

38.75

(1 – 100) / 440

#15 – #29

24

 Minnesota (Bye)

25

37.73

(2 – 110) / 440

#14 – #28

25

 Milwaukee (Bye)

26

37.27

(6 – 118) / 440

#17 – #26

26

 Oklahoma City (Bye)

29

30.57

(0 – 171) / 440

#20 – #30

27

 Washington (Bye)

11

25.45

(3 – 219) / 440

#23 – #28

28

 Memphis (Bye)

27

25.23

(0 – 218) / 440

#22 – #30

29

 Sacramento (Bye)

17

19.89

(1 – 266) / 440

#24 – #29

30

 LA Clippers (Bye)

24

7.84

(0 – 371) / 440

#28 – #30
]]> http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/28/2008-2009-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/feed/ 5 2007-2008 NBA Season End Beatpath Graph http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/27/2007-2008-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/ http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/27/2007-2008-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/#comments Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:51:11 +0000 ThunderThumbs http://beatpaths.com/?p=550 In honor of the NBA season starting, here is the beatpath graph of the 2008-2009 season, including Boston’s championship run. I didn’t follow the NBA much last season, so you’ll have to let me know if there are any interesting surprises here.

Update: D’oh! Yep this is almost definitely the season ending in 2008, not beginning in 2008. I’ll rerun the graph with the fresher data, in another blog entry.

Update: Double D’oh! The graph also continued the 2007-2008 Exhibition games. Updated to include only the regular season and playoffs.

2008-137-nba-clean.png

]]> http://beatpaths.com/2009/10/27/2007-2008-nba-season-end-beatpath-graph/feed/ 5 NBA 2005 Beatpath Graph http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-2005-beatpath-graph/ http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-2005-beatpath-graph/#comments Fri, 02 Dec 2005 04:09:44 +0000 ThunderThumbs http://beatpaths.com/?p=94 Believe it or not, the system was able to chug its way through the entire 2005 NBA season without a lot of pain. And the graph looks cool, too. I’m pleasantly surprised. MLB might work pretty well, after all.

Here’s the 2005 beatpath graph after San Antonio won the championship:

2005-1-Nba-Alpha-Clean

2005-1-Nba-Alpha-Fluke-Clean

Now here’s the more interesting one. Check out this beatpath graph for 2005 when I run the beatflukes variant. This one cancels out a ton of loops. Again, I’m still not sure I’m handling beatflukes correctly, but the vertical nature of this graph is pretty fascinating.

Over a long season where teams play each other a lot, the teams have pretty clear chances to assert dominance over each other, and the home field advantage largely cancels out. The benefit of these tall graphs is that there are many fewer possible power rankings orderings. Out of all the teams, it appears that only Minnesota and the Clippers have a pretty wide variance of where they could be placed in the rankings.

(It’s pretty amazing what some performance enhancements can do. Earlier tonight, generating this graph took over 45 minutes and led to my first ever out-of-memory errors on my powerbook. A few unique sorts later, and this took less than sixty seconds.)

]]> http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-2005-beatpath-graph/feed/ 9 NBA Beatpaths: 2006 Month 1 http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-beatpaths-2006-month-1/ http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-beatpaths-2006-month-1/#comments Fri, 02 Dec 2005 03:33:33 +0000 ThunderThumbs http://beatpaths.com/?p=93 The 2006 NBA Season has been going on for a month now, and here’s a brief look at the beatpath graphs.

This is the beatpath graph generator that is currently being used for both the NFL and NCAA football – no tweaks. I haven’t been following the NBA much this year. Anyone want to tell me how it looks?

2006-1-Nba-Alpha-Clean

Top five teams: Dallas, San Antonio, Detroit, Memphis, LA Clippers.

Stats: 13 team splits, 52 three-team loops, 3 four-team loops.

And here’s the beatfluke graph – Memphis comes out of it in a much stronger position. I’m not yet entirely sure I’m removing the beatflukes in the correct order, but it’s close to final.

2006-1-Nba-Alpha-Fluke-Clean

Top five teams: Memphis, Dallas, Detroit, San Antonio, LA Clippers.

Stats: 12 team splits, 35 three-team loops, 4 four-team loops.

]]> http://beatpaths.com/2005/12/01/nba-beatpaths-2006-month-1/feed/ 2