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2010 NFL Week 13 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Fri, 10 Dec 2010 07:11:28 +0000

Hey all! Sorry I’m late with the rankings this week. It has been CRAZY busy around here. But that always happens this week. Plus, I started to write the rankings last night and instead got stuck coding some stuff to help parse results out, and I look up and it’s 3am! Wow!

Anyway, we got more rankings with more commentary. This week, we have more season splits, longer loops, and a flatter graph–but still SEA=>CHI. But I’m getting ahead of myself–let’s get to the rankings…

You can see the graph for this week here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat DEN)* Whoa! Did you have these guys up here? Because I sure didn’t! The season split with Denver breaks up several three team loops, and gives back the Chiefs their wins over the 49ers, Chargers, and Jaguars. But that’s not the real story here; more, it’s just that the Chiefs maintained their power and position this week. That’s not the case for the former number one…but more on them later.	2	65.33 (23 – 0) / 75 #1 – #19
2		*(Beat WAS)* Giants do the same as the Chiefs, mostly just maintaining things to keep high up in the graph. Their win over the Redskins gets looped away by their loss to the Titans, but that loss was already looped away, so no benefit or loss from this week’s game.	3	64.67 (22 – 0) / 75 #1 – #20
3		*(Beat BAL)* Steelers also maintain a high position. The season split with Baltimore doesn’t give them any more beatwins or losses. I didn’t get a chance to really watch that game, but it doesn’t seem like you can really credit Pittsburgh that much. It was a close win that could have gone either way, but it seems like people were really talking the Steelers up after it–at least more than I would have thought.	4	63.33 (20 – 0) / 75 #1 – #18
4		*(Beat TB)* Atlanta pulls one out over the Bucs. They already had a beatwin over the Bucs, but they still look a bit more impressive this week–in the graph, that is. I don’t know that I’m more impressed with what they’ve done on the field.	7	62.00 (18 – 0) / 75 #1 – #22
5		*(Beat CAR)* Sometimes an objective data-based ranking system will have teams that just seem to defy logic. The Beatpaths had the Broncos a few years back, and now they have the Seahawks. They still have their path over the Bears, and that keeps them high up. You can see a good discussion by some commenters as to why this is here. Long story short is that the NFL schedule is asymmetrical, and that makes (we think) some games stay longer in the beatpaths graph.	5	61.33 (19 – 2) / 75 #3 – #21
6		*(Beat NYJ)* So the Patriots completely dominate a Super Bowl contender, and they drop from #1 to #6. I hear you saying “What’s up with that Beatpaths?” Well, here’s what’s up. First off, beating the Jets didn’t give the Patriots back any wins, and their previous loss to the Jets had already been looped away, so the win basically gave them no benefit. The problem for New England came with two of their main pillars of support–wins over the Dolphins and the Chargers. Both of those teams took tumbles in the rankings, which took away a lot of their accomplishments, and that’s why they fell this week. Basically, they just don’t have unambiguous wins that look impressive right now. I imagine that could change with a win this weekend against Chicago.	1	60.67 (16 – 0) / 75 #1 – #21
7		*(Beat DET)* Bears get the season sweep over the Lions, but are haunted by that loss to the Seahawks. God only knows what chaos would happen if it ever went away. We’ll see what will happen this weekend. I’m honestly not scared; I think my Bears can win this thing.	6	58.67 (16 – 3) / 75 #4 – #23
8		*(Lost to NE)* Of course, I thought the Jets could have won against the Patriots. What happened there? Surely Jim Leonhard doesn’t matter THAT much. Anyway, just like the Patriots, this loss doesn’t really affect the Jets–the loss gets looped away, the win it takes out was already looped away, and they don’t gain a new beatloss.	8	56.67 (10 – 0) / 75 #1 – #24
9		*(Beat HOU)* A decent win by the Eagles that gives them some help. The win over the Texans makes a 3 team loop of PHI=>HOU=>TEN=>PHI. That takes the TEN=>PHI result out of the group at the 3rd level, which breaks up last week’s 4 team loop of PHI=>IND=>WAS=>TEN=>PHI, which restores PHI=>IND to the graph. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look so impressive right now, so the Eagles tread water.	9	56.00 (9 – 0) / 75 #1 – #24
10		*(Beat CIN)* The Saints move up some not really based on the merits of beating the Bengals. Are there any merits to that? Especially in the close way they pulled it out. Anyway, the flattening of the graph helps the Saints out–basically, it makes more teams look like the Saints.	15	53.33 (5 – 0) / 75 #1 – #29
11		*(Beat SF)* Watching the highlight shows for this game, it seemed like the Packers dominated the 49ers. Reading Football Outsider’s Quick Reads column makes it seems like they just got some big plays (and what big plays they were–did you see that Driver touchdown?). I guess both of those can be true.	11	52.00 (7 – 4) / 75 #5 – #27
12		*(Lost to ATL)* I was pulling for the Bucs to win that one. And I thought they were going to win it, too. They looked good. When Freeman threaded that fourth down pass to the receiver on their last drive, I thought to myself, “he’s going to pull it out”. Of course, he threw the game ending pick on the next play.	14	52.00 (6 – 3) / 75 #3 – #27
13		*(Beat SD)* Raiders beat the Chargers, again, giving them the season sweep. If you’re curious about what happens in this situation (and it has been a point of contention before), here’s how we handle it. Each level of loop length only loops away one result, regardless of how many loops it is in. So, in this case, there are three 3-team loops involving OAK=>SD: one with Arizona, one with Houston, and one with Tennessee. Those only take away the first OAK=>SD result, however, so when we move on to look for loops of length 4 and higher, we still have an OAK=>SD to use. And that means we can create a 5 team loop this week: OAK=>SD=>JAC=>CLE=>MIA=>OAK . Which means that the win over the Chargers this week looped away the Raider’s loss to the Dolphins, which took a lot of teams off of them. They now are only under the Steelers in the graph, which accounts for their rise up the graph.	21	51.33 (3 – 1) / 75 #2 – #29
14		*(Beat TEN)* It doesn’t look like the Jaguars lost much because they only moved one spot, but they really lost a lot this week. The aforementioned 5 team loop cost them their win over the Browns. There’s another 5 team loop this week of JAC=>BUF=>DET=>STL=>SD =>JAC that took away the Jaguars win over the Bills. I’ll go over how that loop got created later, but the big point is that these two loops cost the Jaguars a lot of support. They maintain their position pretty well just because other teams are swirling around them, but they do look worse than they did last week.	13	50.67 (2 – 1) / 75 #2 – #30
15		*(Lost to DAL)* What the hell, Peyton? This loss gets looped away in a 3-team loop with Dallas. But that breaks up a longer 4-team loop of IND=>WAS=>TEN=>PHI=>IND. Now, you might be saying, “Wait–I thought you said in the Philadelphia commentary that that got broken up by the Eagle’s win over Houston”. Well, you’re right, and I’m right–I just wasn’t fully honest. The truth is, either of those wins would have broken up that 4 team loop. In any case, as mentioned the effect of this loss is to put the Colts under the Eagles again.	16	50.67 (3 – 2) / 75 #3 – #29
16		*(Lost to PIT)* The loss to the the Steelers costs the Ravens something. The season split breaks up a 3-team loop with the Falcons, which means that ATL=>BAL returns to the graph. That means that the Ravens no longer have no beatlosses. That’s not a huge thing, considering that the Falcons have no beatlosses so it only adds 1 team above them. But it’s never good to have teams above you in the graph.	17	50.67 (2 – 1) / 75 #2 – #30
17		*(Lost to CLE)* So, at this point you’ve figured out what happened. The loss to Cleveland, coupled with Oakland’s win over the Chargers, made that big 5 team loop (MIA=>OAK=>SD=>JAC=>CLE=>MIA). That cost the Dolphins their win over the Raiders. You wouldn’t think that would matter that much, but it does hurt some, as does some things that happened to some of Miami’s support, namely the fact that Detroit and Buffalo lost beatwins this week. But more on that later.	12	50.00 (6 – 6) / 75 #7 – #27
18		*(Lost to OAK)* Each time I think that their special teams can’t screw up again, there they go. For some reason, in my mind good special teams (like the Bears) are skills that are consistently repeatable, but bad special teams (like the Chargers) aren’t and are due to regress to the mean. Those two thoughts seem contradictory, but I feel like that should be possible (albeit unlikely–it’s more likely that being bad at special teams can be consistent as well). In any case, those two 5-team beatloops both take away the Charger’s win over the Jaguars, which accounts for their drop this week–they have no beatwins anymore.	10	49.33 (0 – 1) / 75 #2 – #32
19		*(Lost to PHI)* I’ve been taking classes in Swedish, and this year they meet on Thursday, which means I’ve missed most of the Thursday games. Which is too bad for me, since it sounds like this one was a neat little barnburner. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans are a surprise team next year–they seem like they have a lot of talent, if they can just shore up some disaster areas they should improve a great deal. On the other hand, it seems like we’re always waiting and expecting the Texans to “take the next step”.	18	49.33 (0 – 1) / 75 #2 – #32
20		*(Beat MIA)* The Browns beating the Dophins gets them out from under the Jaguars (see: 5 team beatloop), which helps a lot. The three teams they’re under now (Jets, Falcons, and Chiefs) don’t have any beatlosses, so the Browns have some room to move now.	24	48.67 (1 – 3) / 75 #4 – #31
21		*(Lost to STL)* So, is the consensus that the Cardinals have 3 guys and no quarterbacks? Is it time to start plucking guys off the trash heap to see if you find someone who knows how to throw to Larry Fitzgerald? I hear the UFL finished its season, maybe there’s something there.	20	47.33 (0 – 4) / 75 #5 – #32
22		*(Beat ARI)* No respect, eh? Rams beat the Cardinals but are still ranked below them. It’s close, but basically while the Rams have beatwins their beatlosses (Oakland, Tampa Bay) look worse than Arizona’s (Atlanta, Seattle). Anyway, about that other 5 team loop (STL=>SD=>JAC=>BUF=>DET=>STL). What happened is that the Rams got a season split with the Cardinals, which broke up a 3-team loop from last week of STL=>SD =>ARI=>STL. Thus, STL=>SD stayed in the graph past the 3-team level, and eventually created the 5 team loop. This got the Rams out from under the Lions, which was a HUGE help for them. They’ve still got some work to do to look respectable, but they’re on their way now.	30	46.67 (2 – 7) / 75 #5 – #30
23		*(Lost to NO)* Cincinnati gets another team above them, and falls further down the charts. Despite him being a USC guy, I root for Carson Palmer, but at this point I think he’s done–at least in Cincy.	19	46.00 (1 – 7) / 75 #7 – #31
24		*(Beat BUF)* The Tavaris Jackson Experience mostly went the way I expected–3 INTs, one a pick 6. Mostly I continue to be wrong in my expectations of Sidney Rice and Adrian Peterson, both of whom I’ve been wrong about since the before they were drafted. I thought Adrian Peterson would have had a major injury that would have cost him time by now, and I didn’t think Sidney Rice was going to turn into any kind of decent receiver. Turns out I was wrong, and they both bailed out the Vikings last week.	23	44.67 (3 – 11) / 75 #10 – #29
25		*(Lost to JAC)* I’ve just recently flipped over to the opinion that Jeff Fisher will be out of Tennessee this offseason. I think there’s just too much tension and strife. I still think he can be a good coach, and I would hire him if I had an opening. But I don’t know if he’ll play Vince Young again, and I think he’d have to to return. I do agree with Bud Adams in wondering why anyone on the Titans thinks that Kerry Collins is the man to lead them.	25	44.67 (0 – / 75 #8 – #32
26		*(Lost to NYG)* Through a complicated set of events mostly detailed in piecemeal commentary above, the Redskins’ direct link situation doesn’t change much. What does change is that the Rams move out from under the Lions–and since the Redskins are under the Rams, they also benefit.	31	44.67 (0 – / 75 #6 – #32
27		*(Lost to GB)* More suck for the 49ers. It pains me to see a Bears legend crash and burn so hard. I guess we should have guessed that a guy relying so much on the force of personality would run into trouble. Depressing.	22	42.67 (0 – 11) / 75 #10 – #32
28		*(Lost to KC)* Well, that was fun. The Josh McDaniels era ends in a whimper as the defense shows up just as the offense leaves. As for his replacement, I’d like to say that I think hiring Urban Meyer (assuming he’d even take it) would be a bad idea. Here’s the problem: he’s a college coach moving to the NFL. That’s a huge transition. And you’re hiring him in large part because he coached Tim Tebow. And you want Tebow to succeed. But in order for Tebow to succeed he needs to become a much better pocket passer–which is also a huge transition. So you’re relying on two guys to make really difficult changes, simultaneously, in order for it to work. I think it’s a bad idea. I think you should get a NFL guy to come in and see if Tebow can actually become a useful NFL player. In any case, it’s usually a bad idea to hire an NFL coach specifically to cater to a single player (see: Mike Tice in Minnesota). As a footnote, it’s also possible that Meyer could come in and install his offense and it might actually work in the NFL, and neither of them would have to change. But that seems unlikely, and anyway, the offense in Denver is currently good. Why mess with that?	32	39.33 (0 – 16) / 75 #12 – #32
29		*(Beat IND)* I think this says more about the Colts than the Cowboys. At this point, you can kind of say that Dallas has started playing at the level that they’re supposed to (beating the Lions, losing to Saints), and that means the Colts have sunk to the level where they can get beat by the Cowboys. By 3 points. I guess it’s not so bad. But hey, feel good Cowboy Nation!	27	38.67 (0 – 17) / 75 #14 – #32
30		*(Lost to CHI)* So, the big 5-team beatloop took away the Lions’ only beatwin (over the Rams), which cost other teams relying on some of those wins more than it did the Lions (who have so many beatlosses it really doesn’t matter). At least they also got rid of their loss to the Bills at the same time. I think I’ve said this before, but at some point the Lions have to stop coming close in games and start actually winning them.	29	38.67 (0 – 17) / 75 #12 – #32
31		*(Lost to MIN)* Like the Lions, the 5-team beatloop Bills lost their only beatwin–over the Lions. Now the two of them sit on the bottom of the graph next to each other.	26	37.33 (0 – 19) / 75 #11 – #32
32		*(Lost to SEA)* I guess I was a little surprised the Panthers weren’t here already. Can you really bet on Jimmy Clausen as your QB of the future and pass on a QB in the draft? Although, is Andrew Luck worth taking a chance on as the number one? I guess the real question is, is there a Ndamukong Suh-type player out there who’s a can’t miss prospect at another position? I’m sure that no one has the answers to these questions yet, so why am I asking now? Because there’s nothing good to write about the Panthers, that’s why.	28	32.00 (0 – 27) / 75 #16 – #32

2010 NFL Week 11 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 00:34:05 +0000

Ah…Thanksgiving weekend. A time for traditions. Gathering with family, turkey dinner, and watching NFL games. Waiitt…NFL games? Consarnit! I’m late with the rankings!

Well, another Thanksgiving tradition goes on–Beatpath Rankings after the Thanksgiving games. But you can enjoy with me as we discuss what the rankings looked like before Thursday. Enjoy!

You can see this week’s graph here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat IND)* Big win by the Patriots last week, but I wonder if the emotion of that and the short week is going to cause a trap with their upcoming game against the Lions. Oh wait! I already know it didn’t. This win gives a direct beatpath for New England to Indianapolis, and that makes them the clear best team in the league, as opposed to last week.	1	72.46 (31 – 0) / 69 #1 – #13
2		*(Beat NYG)* Through a complicated set of events, the Eagles jump above their Pennsylvanian brethren to take the #2 spot this week. How did they accomplish that? Through a little work of their own, and a little help. They got help from the Redskins beating the Titans, which created a 4 team beatloop of PHI=>IND=>WAS=>TEN=>PHI, which removed their beatloss to the Titans. But that broke up a larger loop from last week of PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI, which meant that GB=>PHI was due to come back into the graph. Or, it WOULD have, except that Philly beat the Giants this week, letting them turn the PHI=>IND=>NYG segment in the 5 team loop from last week into simply PHI=>NYG, making a new 4 team loop of PHI=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI. So, GB=>PHI stays out of the graph, and TEN=>PHI leaves too. It all adds up to Philadelphia having no beatlosses and rising to #2 in the rankings this week.	6	65.94 (22 – 0) / 69 #1 – #19
3		*(Beat OAK)* Pittsburgh tumbled a bit this week, mainly because it’s two big pieces of support–MIA and TEN–both had their own problems. More on those guys later. But even without that, they’re still highly ranked. But Edgepower now clearly sees them as inferior to the Patriots, as opposed to last week when they were almost even.	2	63.77 (19 – 0) / 69 #1 – #19
4		*(Lost to NE)* Another reason why the Patriots look better this week is that the Colts, who they just got a path to, are also looking better this week. Do you know why? I’ve already hinted at it…okay, here’s the reason. It’s in the breakup of that 5 team loop from before (PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI). The PHI=>IND=>NYG segment got pulled out and put back in the graph. Now, we know that Indianapolis looped away the loss to Philly with a win over Washington, but they kept the win over the Giants. And that gave back a lot of support to the Colts, and so they rise up the rankings.	13	63.04 (19 – 1) / 69 #2 – #18
5		*(Lost to PHI)* Big Blue’s loss to Philly hurts them in that it puts the Colts on top of them, it’s true. But they got some help from another source–my Chicago Bears! Yes, the Bears beating Miami created a four team loop of CHI=>MIA=>TEN=>NYG=>CHI. That loops away the Giants loss to Tennessee, which gets a lot of teams out from on top of them. So, they gain a little, and lose a little, and end up in about the same place.	5	59.42 (15 – 2) / 69 #3 – #21
6		*(Beat STL)* Atlanta rising this week as well, due to their being no teams on top of Philly (the only team they’re under). I feel like people were underrating the Falcons earlier this season, and now they’re overcompensating. I like the Falcons, I’m just not sure I see them getting things done in the playoffs.	12	58.70 (13 – 1) / 69 #2 – #24
7		*(Beat HOU)* The win over the Texans gives little help the Jets, and they basically tread water. I mistakenly thought that beating the Texans would win, but I misread the little lines in the graph. They’re tricky buggers, they is! As for the Jets…Beatpaths is (notoriously) score-agnostic, game-situation-agnostic, whatever-you-can-think-of-that-isn’t-wins-and-losses-agnostic, so it still believes in the Jets. Personally, I’d like to see them win games without pulling it out at the end–oh, look what happened on Thanksgiving!	7	57.97 (11 – 0) / 69 #1 – #23
8		*(Beat MIN)* Lots of things happened around the Packers, but not much happened TO the Packers, and so they stay about the same. Big game this weekend at the Georgia Dome, though. Go Falcons!	9	56.52 (9 – 0) / 69 #1 – #26
9		*(Lost to NO)* The loss to New Orleans is looped away in a 3 team loop with Arizona, which was a win that the Seahawks had already looped away last week, so no change for the Seahawks.	8	55.80 (11 – 3) / 69 #4 – #23
10		*(Beat DEN)* Well, there is SOME change for Seattle–they no longer have a beatwin over San Diego, who jumps up the charts as a result. The win over Denver caused a 3 team loop that blew away that loss, and now the Chargers are only under the Patriots. Still, they don’t have much support at the moment, so this is as far as they get. Win some more, and they’ll look better. And I’ll be impressed. I have no idea how they’re doing this well with a passing attack cobbled out of Phillip Rivers and spare parts at WR.	17	54.35 (7 – 1) / 69 #2 – #25
11		*(Lost to CHI)* Big drop for the Dolphins, as the loss to the Bears cost them their path to the Titans. Not that that looks impressive now–well, more about that when we get to the Titans. It’s an unfortunate fact of Beatpaths–and more objective stats-based rankings–that they don’t tend to distinguish between different iterations of a team. Certainly the Miami team that was out last Thursday wasn’t the same one that had been playing up to that point. Although, why did they try to pass so much? I don’t know that running would have helped–the Bears were stopping the run pretty well–but why try to win it with your third string QB missing his top target (in the second half) behind a patchwork line?	3	53.62 (7 – 2) / 69 #3 – #26
12		*(Beat ARI)* The Chiefs’ win over Arizona is looped away in a 3 team loop with Oakland, which is a loss they had already shed. And the search for quality wins continues for Kansas City.	11	53.62 (5 – 0) / 69 #1 – #27
13		*(Beat MIA)* Bears do a lot of damage to other team’s paths, but not much to their own–they’re still about where they were. I, for one, am not fearing the Vickopalypse. I think the Bears have a fast defense that will do a good job at keeping Vick contained (the lousy Soldier Field turf will help, too). They’ve done so in the past. I know Vick is a better passer now, but I still think the Bears can limit them. The way to beat the Bears defense is to either overpower them in the run or to methodically slice them up with small plays marching down the field. I don’t think either of those are strong points of the Eagles–I think of them as a big-play machine, although I could be wrong. The real issue will be when the Bears’ have the ball–if they can move the ball against the Eagles’ formidable defense without turning it over, then it will be a game.	15	53.62 (9 – 4) / 69 #5 – #25
14		*(Beat SF)* The Buccaneers now have a beatwin over the 49ers. That and a quarter will get you a phone call. Wait, is that right anymore? What does a payphone call cost now? I haven’t used one in ages. I don’t even see them around. What’s the new phrase? I’m old.	18	52.90 (7 – 3) / 69 #4 – #27
15		*(Beat SEA)* Much like the Seahawks, this game quickly disappeared into oblivion for the Saints. At least next week I’ll have a thrilling game to talk about for the Saints even if it gets swallowed hole by loops.	14	52.17 (3 – 0) / 69 #1 – #30
16		*(Beat CLE)* Jacksonville adds a third beatwin to their stable, but the real news is the rise of the Chargers and Eagles, both of whom give the Jaguars some room to breathe. Oh, and they’re in first place in their division, which is pretty nice, too. I guess.	21	52.17 (6 – 3) / 69 #4 – #26
17		*(Beat CAR)* The Ravens fall some more, but it’s not their fault. Well, I guess it’s their fault that they lost to Cincinnati earlier this year–a loss which continues to haunt them. Since the Bengals lost to the Bills this week, it created a 3 team loop and the Ravens lose their win over Buffalo. They get a win over Carolina, though…until the Bengals lose to them too.	10	51.45 (2 – 0) / 69 #1 – #30
18		*(Lost to PIT)* Oakland gets a beatloss again with the loss. Looks like it’s still going to be some time before they’re playing with the big boys.	16	50.72 (2 – 1) / 69 #2 – #30
19		*(Lost to WAS)* So, the Titans. They had a beatpath to the Giants. Now they don’t. They were ranked number 4. Now they’re number 19. These are not unrelated. Now they’re trying to win with a QB named Rusty Smith. That sounds more like a NASCAR driver than a starting QB. But don’t worry, Randy Moss is here!	4	50.00 (1 – 1) / 69 #2 – #31
20		*(Lost to SD)* The loss to the Chargers gets looped away–twice–by wins that they Broncos had already lost, so they don’t lose much here. I’ve come to the conclusion that the Broncos aren’t really much worse than the Chiefs or Raiders, they just had the misfortune/decency to show it at the beginning of the season.	19	47.10 (0 – 4) / 69 #5 – #32
21		*(Lost to NYJ)* I guess we now know that Revis > Andre Johnson, which is surprising to me.	20	47.10 (0 – 4) / 69 #5 – #32
22		*(Lost to KC)* This loss gets looped away by the Cardinals win over the Raiders, which went bye-bye a long time ago. Is Larry Fitzgerald in a Jared Allen in Kansas City situation here? I have to say that I’m skeptical that Arizona is going to get quality QB play in the next 2 years.	25	45.65 (0 – 6) / 69 #7 – #32
23		*(Lost to TB)* For some reason I have a memory of the 49ers being favored against the Buccaneers, which is just ridiculous to me. But I can’t seem to figure out what the odds were. In any case–when are people going to give up on the 49ers? Come on folks.	24	44.93 (0 – 7) / 69 #6 – #32
24		*(Lost to BUF)* In fairness, it’s my understanding that the Bengals lost 2 of their starters in the defensive secondary during the course of this game, and that’s when it went from “Bengals in control” to “Wild West Shootout and Cincinnati brought a knife”. I guess I’m not surprised that this season has gone this way for the Bengals. I just am continually surprised that last season went so well for them. I assume Marvin Lewis is gone, right?	26	44.93 (1 – / 69 #7 – #31
25		*(Lost to GB)* Now, at least people have the decency to mostly ignore the 49ers. The only difference between San Francisco and this team is the amount of Wrangler Jeans commercials made by team members. Bench the Favre!	22	44.20 (4 – 12) / 69 #10 – #28
26		*(Lost to JAC)* Wow, I’m completely off the reservation here. But that’s what happens when you get to the point of the rankings when you’re talking about bad teams that don’t really move much in the rankings. Cleveland really looks okay to me, though. I’m sending them good thoughts for next year. Although if you look at the past 20+ Bears season, that probably doesn’t bode well. At least the Heat are losing.	23	44.20 (0 – / 69 #8 – #32
27		*(Beat CIN)* I like what’s going on in Buffalo but I still think they should draft a QB this year. Because I don’t know that this isn’t just a Kitna effect (remember Cincinnati?) year for Fitzpatrick. And even if it isn’t, it’s always nice to have a young backup, just in case you need it. Just look at Green Bay.	27	40.58 (3 – 16) / 69 #14 – #29
28		*(Lost to BAL)* Man, this team has fallen apart. I feel like there’s talent here, but you certainly can’t see it.	29	36.23 (0 – 19) / 69 #13 – #32
29		*(Beat DET)* I’m sort of glad that the Cowboys ended up losing on Thanksgiving, because now we don’t have to hear endless stories about how the three game winning streak proves that “The Cowboys Are Back” and “Jason Garrett Is For Realz Yo”. Although I don’t suppose a 3 point loss to the Saints is going to stop anyone from writing those stories.	28	34.78 (0 – 21) / 69 #15 – #32
30		*(Lost to DAL)* Now we get to the “I don’t really think these teams are this bad” part of the rankings. Which I guess just consists of Detroit and St. Louis. Still, at some point you have to start winning games. Look at Seattle. I don’t think they’re any more talented than these teams, but they’ve won some games.	30	31.88 (2 – 27) / 69 #16 – #30
31		*(Lost to ATL)* The Rams can’t even use the excuse of “Seattle plays in a much worse division than us”. They’re in the same division! Take advantage of the situation Rams.	31	25.36 (1 – 35) / 69 #20 – #31
32		*(Beat TEN)* Well, beating the Titans sure caused some havoc WAAAY up the graph, but the Redskins can’t really see it from here. Who knows, though–if the Redskins win some more…ah, forget it. I don’t even want to try to imagine it.	32	23.91 (0 – 36) / 69 #21 – #32

2010 NFL Week 10 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 07:16:10 +0000

Hey folks! Kenneth here with more rankings! We’ve got some another new team on top of the rankings this week. Let’s get right to it!

You can see this week’s graph here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat PIT)* The Patriots take the top spot this week. They don’t get credit for the win over the Steelers–it gets looped away by their loss to the Browns, which was already looped away by their win over the Ravens. Still, that game definitely made it seem like they were better than Pittsburgh; literally every time I turned it on, the Patriots were scoring (I seriously had the best TV turning-on-luck that night).	7	83.33 (44 – 0) / 66 #1 – #10
2		*(Lost to NE)* Steelers slip to number 2 this week. A Pittsburgh/NE game looks even more interesting now that they’re the top two spots in beatpaths. If you look at the graph you’ll see that the Steelers and Patriots look very similar. That’s true; the differences are hidden in the final, pretty version of the graph, but New England has slightly better redundant links to teams, and more of them (Pittsburgh has more wins looped out). But the two teams are pretty close to equal in the Beatpaths world.	1	81.82 (42 – 0) / 66 #1 – #10
3		*(Beat TEN)* One thing making the Pats and Steelers look equal is that they’re both sitting on top of the Dolphins, who take the number 3 spot in the rankings. I’ll be honest, I am surprised that Miami is this high–I would not have expected it offhand. But their only losses seem to be to good teams (Ravens, Jets, Pats & Steelers), which can make their W/L record deceiving at first glance.	11	78.03 (39 – 2) / 66 #3 – #11
4		*(Lost to MIA)* Of course, the foundation for those Dolphins are the Titans, who hold them up nicely. Sometimes EdgePower tells you things that straight rankings don’t. In this week it’s telling us that there are 4 elite teams at the top that are far above everyone else. Not that the Titans are very close to the Patriots, but they’re much closer than anyone below them is to them. Put it this way–in terms of Edgepower, the dropoff from 4 to 5 (Giants) is bigger than the dropoff from 5 to 20.	3	74.24 (36 – 4) / 66 #4 – #12
5		*(Lost to DAL)* On that note, the Giants lead the “best of the rest” category (otherwise known as “the NFC”). The loss the Cowboys just causes a season split, which is not so bad as they still have paths to Dallas. The Giants are actually pretty much equal with the Eagles, which should make this week’s game pretty interesting.	4	60.61 (19 – 5) / 66 #5 – #19
6		*(Beat WAS)* And here are those Eagles! I told you they were about equal. Philadelphia is the first team do something really interesting loop-wise this week. Their win over the Redskins gave them a season split. That broke up two 3-team beatloops relying on the WAS=>PHI result, one with Detroit and one with Indy. Philadelphia kept the win over Detroit, but the win over Indianapolis ended up in a larger beatloop (our first loop of >3 teams in awhile). I know Vick was amazing on Monday night, but didn’t anyone stop to think “geez, this Redskin defense really looks terrible”?	10	60.61 (19 – 5) / 66 #5 – #19
7		*(Beat CLE)* The Jets manage to avoid tying the Browns, barely. Still, the Browns are not considered a quality team by Beatpaths, leaving the Jets in their old position of not having any impressive wins (that are not looped away). But they still have no beatlosses, so they can rise as soon as they beat a good team. Houston this weekend would suffice (assuming there’s not some other loop waiting to happen I’m not seeing).	9	57.58 (10 – 0) / 66 #1 – #24
8		*(Beat ARI)* Seattle drops some, not due to anything much of their own doing, but mainly due to their beatwin over my beloved Bears holding less value this week. Since I live in St. Louis I’m pulling for the Rams to win this atrocity of a division, but I have to admit that my head is liking the Seahawks right now.	5	56.82 (15 – 6) / 66 #6 – #21
9		*(Bye)* So, you might notice that this is the first rankings in awhile where Green Bay shows up before Chicago. That’s because of the aforementioned Philly and Washington season split. That broke up the WAS=>PHI=>IND=>WAS loop, meaning that PHI=>IND survived later into the elimination process. It didn’t survive forever, though–it was eventually used to create a 5 team loop of PHI=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB=>PHI. That lead Philly to shed its beatloss to Green Bay, but it also meant that Green Bay got rid of its only beatloss–to Chicago. That caused a great rift in the graph–instead of teams being generally ordered together in one long line, two piles (of a sort) were created, with the Giants on top of one and the Eagles on top of the other. The 4 elite teams mentioned above are the ones with the paths to both piles, which is what makes them so much more (Edge)powerful than everyone else. Anyway, long story short is that the Packers are left with no beatlosses but only beatwins to unimpressive teams, so they are now squarely in Jets-land. This weekend won’t help much, as they already have a win over the Favres.	8	56.06 (8 – 0) / 66 #1 – #26
10		*(Lost to ATL)* Ravens loop away this loss in a 3 team loop with Pittsburgh, a win which they had already lost before. I liked that Roddy White admitted to pushing off on that touchdown play–I don’t know that he meant to cheat on the play, and I think it’s just best to admit when a call (or non-call) goes your way.	14	53.79 (5 – 0) / 66 #1 – #27
11		*(Lost to DEN)* What the hell, Chiefs? Seriously? This loss doesn’t cost the Chiefs anything they hadn’t already looped away. I thought the Chiefs were in a bad position when they had a lot of wins over unimpressive teams. Now they’ve started acquiring losses to unimpressive teams. Not an improvement, guys.	15	53.79 (5 – 0) / 66 #1 – #27
12		*(Beat BAL)* This win loops away the Falcons’ loss to Pittsburgh, which is nice but as There’s No Shame In Losing To The Steelers it’s not so big a deal. Atlanta is one of the spokes of the Philadelphia pile, so what they really need to do to continue moving up the rankings is get their hands on some other parts of the pile.	16	53.79 (11 – 6) / 66 #6 – #24
13		*(Beat CIN)* More fallout from the Vickalypse–the new 5 team loop removes the Colts win over the Giants, which it turns out was a large part of their ranking. The Colts are now over Denver, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Washington. Yuck. Still, my eyes tell me not to count out the Colts anytime soon.	2	53.03 (4 – 0) / 66 #1 – #28
14		*(Bye)* No big change for NO. I guess they’re supposed to get Reggie Bush back, which should be nice. What inquiring fantasy owners want to know is when is Pierre Thomas coming back, for crying out loud?	12	52.27 (3 – 0) / 66 #1 – #30
15		*(Beat MIN)* Bears get swept up in the new 5 team loop, which takes away their win over the Packers. We had talked about that being a real vulnerability for them (and other teams on top of them) for awhile, and now it happened. I know Cutler had a pretty good game last week, but it seemed to me like all of his good passes came when he held onto the ball and/or scrambled out of the pocket and made plays to receivers who had broken off their routes and were in free-play mode. Which is to say, I didn’t see any of the timing-based, throw-to-the-spot plays that are supposed to be the main part of a Mike Martz offense. So I think that the real reason Cutler did well is that the Minnesota front four couldn’t get to him (they didn’t blitz at all), and he had lots of time to work with. All of which means I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall flat on their face against a team with more and better blitzes. I’m hopeful they won’t, of course, but not optimistic.	6	51.52 (9 – 7) / 66 #7 – #25
16		*(Bye)* The downside of me writing this thing is that I have a lot less to say about AFC teams. And I have nothing to say about a team that didn’t play anyone and didn’t change any of their direct paths. And yet, I still squeezed fifty one words out of it.	13	51.52 (2 – 0) / 66 #1 – #30
17		*(Bye)* Hey, I used up that no-comment-bye bit on a team right before this one. Guess I should have looked ahead to see what was coming up. Speaking of which, I guess the Chargers have the Broncos this week. Maybe that will shed some light on the AFC West.	18	48.48 (6 – / 66 #7 – #26
18		*(Beat CAR)* The Buccaneers beat a team they really should beat. That may not sound like much, but for a young team that is on the upswing it’s important for them to get used to doing that.	20	48.48 (6 – / 66 #7 – #28
19		*(Beat KC)* This win gets looped away in a 3 team loop with San Francisco, who was already looped away for Denver, so no real boost to their chances. In the Beatpaths world. In the real world, it just makes it look like anyone can win the AFC West. The Broncos may not qualify as much, but they do fit the criteria of “anyone”.	17	47.73 (0 – 3) / 66 #4 – #32
20		*(Lost to JAC)* The Texans lose the Only One Of You Can Be Considered Serious This Season Bowl to the Jaguars. This loss gets looped away in a three team loop with the Chiefs, which was a win already looped away for the Texans so it doesn’t hurt them that much. Except maybe for pride. I feel like if one of these teams was actually going to be serious, they should have stomped the other one.	19	45.45 (0 – 6) / 66 #6 – #32
21		*(Beat HOU)* Just as the Texans get no damages from the loss, the Jaguars get no benefit from the win. And we’re once again left with 2 teams ranked right next to each other the week after they play each other, although this one is infinitely less interesting than a Steelers-Patriots rematch would be. Although, considering the relative closeness of the two games, maybe not.	23	45.45 (5 – 11) / 66 #9 – #27
22		*(Lost to CHI)* The Vikings offense is down to Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson. It’s basically the Panthers offense from 2005, except Steve Smith is better than Harvin and Peterson is better than whoever Carolina had. But anyway, you put two guys on Harvin and 8 guys in the box to stop AP and you’re done. Now, three years ago when Peterson was first coming in the league, he’d beat those 8 man fronts easily. I don’t think he’s slowed down in year 4; I think this is just a clear indication that Steve Hutchinson and the vaunted Vikings offensive line is not playing at a high level anymore.	21	43.94 (4 – 12) / 66 #10 – #28
23		*(Lost to NYJ)* I really thought the Browns were going to pull this one out. Just as well; I wasn’t really interested in Return of the Mangenius anyway.	25	43.18 (0 – 9) / 66 #9 – #32
24		*(Beat STL)* Put me firmly in the “no PI” camp in this game; I don’t think you can claim that the receiver would have stopped, turned, and gotten back around to that ball. In any case, this game gets looped away in a 3 team loop with Seattle, which was a loss the 49ers had already looped away, so no cookies for you, San Francisco.	32	43.18 (0 – 9) / 66 #8 – #32
25		*(Lost to SEA)* Not that the Green Bay front office needs any more validation. But I feel like the situation in Arizona this year really validates the way they handled the Favre situation. They had a chance to continue having high quality QB play, and they went for it instead of continuing a love affair with a hero. Now, I’m not saying that the Cardinals should have ditched Warner earlier–far from it. Just that a good QB can mask a lot of problems, and it’s very hard to replace one of those. The Cardinals obviously couldn’t, and it’s not exactly their fault–it’s hard to do! But they’re obviously suffering this season because of it.	22	42.42 (0 – 10) / 66 #9 – #32
26		*(Lost to IND)* So is the plan to draft a QB this year? Certainly you can’t keep waiting for Palmer to turn it around, right?	26	41.67 (1 – 12) / 66 #9 – #31
27		*(Beat DET)* Hooray! The Bills finally got a win! And hooray, it wasn’t against my Bears!	28	37.12 (3 – 20) / 66 #15 – #29
28		*(Beat NYG)* You’ll notice I discreetly avoided bringing up my proclamation that the Giants were the best team in the NFC. Yes, I’ve eliminated all evidence. Wait…doh! Anyway, this win for the Cowboys just creates a season split with the Giants.	30	33.33 (0 – 22) / 66 #14 – #32
29		*(Lost to TB)* So DeAngelo (I hope I capitalized that correctly) Williams is out for the season, apparently. I’d say “too bad”, but really, is it too bad that he’s not out there in this complete abomination of a season? Save yourself while you can, dude.	31	33.33 (0 – 22) / 66 #14 – #32
30		*(Lost to BUF)* Losing to the Bills drops the Lions below them and down in the rankings. I knew the Bills were too good to go 0fer, but I’m a little surprised they beat the Lions. I keep feeling like the Lions should have more wins than they do. It’s getting a bit worrying that they’re not pulling some of these out. I mean that in a generic unbiased opinion sort of way; as a fan of a team that has to play them twice each year, I’m okay with it.	24	28.79 (2 – 30) / 66 #17 – #30
31		*(Lost to SF)* I guess this Bradford kid still has some things to learn, yet.	27	23.48 (1 – 36) / 66 #21 – #31
32		*(Lost to PHI)* It’s nice that with the Raiders looking decent the Redskins have stepped up to try and make up the lack of crazy incompetence in the league. I don’t care if the contract could be voided tomorrow, I still thought it was weird to make any deal right then.	29	21.21 (0 – 38) / 66 #23 – #32

2010 NFL Week 9 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 07:29:07 +0000

Welcome to the rankings folks! Kenneth here, bringing you the news. And what news there is–there’s a new team on top this week! And in an odd circumstance, no loops were broken up this week–there are only new loops. But let’s skip all the pleasantries and get right in!

You can see the graph for this week here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat CIN)* Yes, can you believe it? Beating the Bengals finally looped away that loss to the Ravens via a three team beatloop. We all felt that that loss to Cincy was the Raven’s weak point, and now we’ve seen it come out. Now, instead of being the support for the top team in the league, the Steelers get that position for themselves outright. Enjoy it, Pittsburgh!	2	85.16 (45 – 0) / 64 #1 – #9
2		*(Lost to PHI)* WHA? Colts lose to Philly but move up to second? Yes, the Colts stay strong by looping away the loss with their win over Washington. That costs the Colts a beatwin, but Washington is so far down that it doesn’t hurt them.	3	80.47 (39 – 0) / 64 #1 – #10
3		*(Bye)* The Titans round out the top 3 this week, otherwise known as “teams that have paths to the Giants”. Personally, I am eagerly awaiting the debut of Randy Moss the Titan this week.	4	80.47 (40 – 1) / 64 #2 – #11
4		*(Beat SEA)* Beating the Seahawks simply let the Giants climb up a little higher–instead of being directly above the Bears, they’re directly above the Seahawks. That puts them near the top of the rankings and keeps my proclamation of New York as the best team in the NFC looking good, or at least defensible.	5	76.56 (37 – 3) / 64 #4 – #12
5		*(Lost to NYG)* Seahawks lose big to the Giants but stay at the top of the rankings. I’m not sure what it says that a team with a -51 point differential is so high in these rankings, but the Seahawks are clinging to this spot with their win over the Bears. Still, these rankings are meant to get better over time–with more data, I think we’ll have a better idea of whether the Seahawks are good or not.	6	71.09 (31 – 4) / 64 #5 – #14
6		*(Beat BUF)* The Bears get back in the win column by beating the team that everyone has beaten this season. As shaky as the Seahawk’s position is above the Bears, the Bears are also shaky by holding on to a win over the Packers–and that’s a division game, which gives more chances to loop away. I guess my point is that this structure that has existed for awhile is likely to fall.	8	67.19 (28 – 6) / 64 #6 – #16
7		*(Lost to CLE)* Wow, New England. Just…wow. I guess Mangini has the magic touch when it comes to facing Belichick. The Patriots don’t suffer from this loss, as it gets looped away by the win over Baltimore, and that win was looped away previously by the loss to the Jets.	7	63.28 (17 – 0) / 64 #1 – #20
8		*(Beat DAL)* Sorry NBC. I’m sure Packers-Cowboys sounded like dynamite back in June, but sometimes these things happen. The Packers are the true lynchpin of this graph–their position is supported by multiple beatpaths over good teams. So even if something causes the top of the graph to topple, expect the Packers to come out strong.	9	63.28 (24 – 7) / 64 #7 – #17
9		*(Beat DET)* Jets pull out the win in Detroit. The win doesn’t do much for the Jets, but they still don’t have any beatlosses, which is keeping them afloat.	10	57.81 (10 – 0) / 64 #1 – #23
10		*(Beat IND)* Pretty impressive performance by the Eagles. Unfortunately, all it does is loop away a loss to the Redskins which had already been looped away, so no benefit to Philly. As long as it doesn’t look stupid I’m going to stick with my proclamation as the Giants as the cream of the crop, but a win like this makes a big impression.	15	56.25 (17 – 9) / 64 #8 – #20
11		*(Lost to BAL)* The loss to the Ravens gets looped away in a three team loop with Cincinnati. That costs the Dolphins their win over the Bengals, but that’s a small loss in the grand scheme of things, and so Miami treads water.	13	54.69 (8 – 2) / 64 #3 – #24
12		*(Beat CAR)* The Saints beat the Panthers this week, but lose a lot of support because one of their wins–an important one–got looped away (FORESHADOWING!). Now, their only direct beatwins are 2 over the Panthers and one over the 49ers. Those are not impressive teams, and so the Saints find themselves down here despite a lack of any beatlosses.	11	53.12 (4 – 0) / 64 #1 – #30
13		*(Beat KC)* I sure was hoping that the Chiefs would win this thing and allow me to continue to believe that the Raiders weren’t for real. But now it seems like It’s On Like Donkey Kong (Trademark 2010 Nintendo). This win gets looped away in a three team loop with the 49ers (seriously?), and that loss had already been looped away so the Raiders get no benefit here. They do get a benefit from shedding a beatloss to Houston by another team’s actions (FORESHADOWING!)	17	53.12 (4 – 0) / 64 #1 – #28
14		*(Beat MIA)* I admit, I was wondering when these guys would show up–and I saw these rankings before I was writing this! Yes, one the mighty Ravens were no longer perched on top of the Steelers, they plummeted to the middle of the pack. It didn’t help that they don’t get any credit for this win either–it’s looped away by the Cincinnati win as well. That would have provided a nice struct for the Ravens, but instead they’re left with their wins over Buffalo and Denver now. That’s even less impressive than the Saints.	1	51.56 (2 – 0) / 64 #1 – #30
15		*(Lost to OAK)* As mentioned, the loss gets looped away in a three team loop with San Francisco. Normally I would say no big deal, but the Chiefs actually were using that win as support. Also, like the Raiders they get out from under the Texans this week via another team’s actions (FORE–is this joke getting old?), but unlike the Raiders it costs them some support. So now the Chiefs are in a position they’ve been in for most of the season–not too many teams above them, but utterly unimpressive wins below them. For my part, the prospect of watching the Kansas City and Oakland struggle to pull out the AFC West crown is completely uninteresting.	16	51.56 (2 – 0) / 64 #1 – #30
16		*(Beat TB)* Beating the Buccaneers gives the Falcons enough support to land on the positive side of the Edgepower ledger, but they’re still under the Eagles and that still hurts. As I type this I haven’t checked tonight’s game so I don’t know how they did against the Ravens, but if Roddy White was out then I don’t like their chances. I think Matt Ryan has done okay this season considering his circumstances, but it pales in comparison to what Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning have done with much more injuries. Just goes to show you how big the spectrum of quarterback play is in this league.	19	51.56 (12 – 10) / 64 #9 – #24
17		*(Bye)* The Broncos probably spent the bye week dreaming of the days that they were situated on top of the Seahawks in the Beatpaths graph. It seems so long ago.	18	47.66 (0 – 3) / 64 #4 – #32
18		*(Beat HOU)* AHA! Here’s the culprit! Yes, the Chargers played wrecking ball this week by knocking off the Texans. That created a 3 team loop with the Raiders and one with the Chiefs, the latter of which removed a beatloss from San Diego’s graph. Unfortunately for Phillip & Co., they still don’t have many impressive beatwins, so they stay where they are. I know people are excited about the Chargers getting players back on offense, but really, how much can the passing game get?	20	47.66 (3 – 6) / 64 #7 – #29
19		*(Lost to SD)* This loss meant more to Houston than the win meant to San Diego, that’s for sure. It cost them their wins over the Raiders and Chiefs. You might not think much of beatwins over those two teams, but now, the Texans have no beatwins. Any beatwins are better than no beatwins, my friends.	12	46.88 (0 – 4) / 64 #5 – #32
20		*(Lost to ATL)* I have to give it to the Buccaneers–they were right there in the end, and they had a shot. It seems like that’s just how it’s going for Tampa Bay this year, but they’ve managed to do alright regardless. Unfortunately, this loss doesn’t get looped away, and now they’re under the Falcons which damages their ranking significantly.	14	46.09 (7 – 12) / 64 #10 – #27
21		*(Beat ARI)* Oh man–I almost forgot I called FORESHADOWING back on the Saints. Well, here’s where it comes to play. The Vikings’ win over the Cardinals created a 3 team beatloop with the Saints. That basically allowed the Vikings to shed the Saints loss, but since the Saints had no beatlosses the Vikings don’t really change their power that much, and stay in the same place. As a Bears fan, I was very happy that the Cardinals were going to bury the Vikings season for us the week before we faced them, but old Wrangler Pants had to go and pull out the old magic. Now it’s up to Chicago to do the job, and it’s a sign of how much I trust the Bears that I really wish the Cardinals had won.	21	44.53 (6 – 13) / 64 #11 – #26
22		*(Lost to MIN)* Speaking of those Cardinals…they are in just a TON of beatloops now. All three of their wins are looped away at least twice. That doesn’t really bode well for future advancement anytime soon.	22	41.41 (0 – 11) / 64 #10 – #32
23		*(Bye)* Little change for the Jaguars on the bye. I find it odd that the Jaguars have used so many QBs this season and the Panthers, as far as I know, have only used the 2. It’s also odd that I still link those two teams in my mind. Guess it just shows that I’m a product of my generation–that expansion happened during my NFL formative years.	24	41.41 (2 – 13) / 64 #11 – #30
24		*(Lost to NYJ)* Lions lost Matthew Stafford and just couldn’t quite pull out the win over the Jets. Of course, the fact that you can even say such a statement tells you how far the Lions have come from where they were. Unfortunately for them, it sounds like Stafford is out for the season. Despite showing flashes, I wouldn’t bank on a guy missing that much time early and turning out to be a franchise guy. Last time I saw that movie it was called Rex Grossman.	23	40.62 (4 – 16) / 64 #12 – #28
25		*(Beat NE)* Big ups to the Browns, who beat a team without a fake punt OR two interception returns from a lineman! I did dig the standing lineman trickeration play though. I don’t think this team can climb back into the playoffs this season, but their arrow is definitely up for the next few years. Which makes the relevant question whether Holmgren and Mangini can tolerate each other during that time.	25	40.62 (0 – 12) / 64 #11 – #32
26		*(Lost to PIT)* There’s No Shame In Losing To Pittsburgh, but it looks like the Bengals just don’t have the same magic this year. I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised that Cincinnati isn’t sweeping the division again this year, but at least they’re showing signs of last year’s selves in some of these losses.	26	39.84 (2 – 15) / 64 #12 – #30
27		*(Bye)* Rams had a bye this week, and thus only lost 2 more WRs to injury.	27	33.59 (3 – 24) / 64 #17 – #29
28		*(Lost to CHI)* I’ve seen Marshawn Lynch against the Bears defense and I saw the Bills’ remaining RBs against it, and I certainly think that Lynch would have helped tremendously. Though I guess Buffalo knows it isn’t going anywhere this season, so they might as well get something for him now. Though I made a similar argument in past years with the Rams and Steven Jackson, and it looks like that would have been a bad idea. So who knows.	29	32.03 (0 – 23) / 64 #16 – #32
29		*(Bye)* The more Mike Shanahan talks about his QB situation, the worse he sounds. I’m starting to wonder if maybe he’s going to do a Marty Schottenheimer Redskins Coach here, except without all the dignity and relatively impressive results.	28	30.47 (0 – 25) / 64 #18 – #32
30		*(Lost to GB)* I hate to kick a team when it’s down–well, alright, that is probably not true when it comes to the Cowboys–but what’s the point of removing Wade Phillips now, as opposed to 3-4 weeks ago when it might have saved your season?	30	30.47 (0 – 25) / 64 #15 – #32
31		*(Lost to NO)* The Panthers should feel grateful for that win over the 49ers, because without it they’d be the Buffalo Bills, but without any hope.	31	24.22 (1 – 34) / 64 #20 – #31
32		*(Bye)* Which Smith do you want as your starting QB? I was thinking it over in my head and I said to myself “you’ve got to give Alex Smith a chance so you can see what you’ve got”, and it occurred to me that he’s been given that chance a lot already. We know what we’ve got now. I guess it’s time to cut losses and manage this season as best you can while preparing the search for a franchise QB in the offseason.	32	20.31 (0 – 38) / 64 #21 – #32

2010 NFL Week 4 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 06:49:52 +0000

Hey hey hey everyone! Kenneth is back here with more rankings fun. 4 weeks in and we’re starting to see some interesting stuff. Let’s get right into it!

You can see the Beatgraph for this week here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat PIT)* The big jumpers this week. They got helped by two things: 1.), Beating Pittsburgh gave them a beatwin over a very high quality opponent, and 2.), Cincinnati losing to Cleveland created a shorter loop (BAL=>CLE=>CIN=>BAL) than last week’s (CIN=>BAL=>NYJ=>NE=>CIN), which gave them back their win over the Jets–another high quality opponent.	15	86.05 (31 – 0) / 43 #1 – #11
2		*(Lost to BAL)* Given everything, a 3-1 record should be more than acceptable for while they were holding down the fort while Big Ben was away. If he can hit the ground running…they will be tough.	1	72.09 (20 – 1) / 43 #2 – #17
3		*(Beat OAK)* Texans are mostly buoyed by their win over Indianapolis. Which itself looks better this week, but more on that later (FORESHADOWING!).	4	62.79 (11 – 0) / 43 #1 – #22
4		*(Beat SF)* Well, if you’re under number 1, and number 1 falls a bit, then so do you. Still no shame in having lost to the Steelers.	2	61.63 (12 – 2) / 43 #3 – #22
5		*(Beat BUF)* Beating the Bills doesn’t do much. The aformentioned CLE=>CIN result brings back the NYJ=>NE=>CIN beatpath, which you would think would help, but not that much. I guess there’s not much room to move up.	6	60.47 (10 – 1) / 43 #2 – #25
6		*(Lost to JAC)* This loss, along with NYG=>CHI, creates a 6 team beatloop of GB=>PHI=>JAC=>IND=>NYG=>CHI=>GB, so it doesn’t show up immediately. And they get a beatpath back to NYG due to DEN=>TEN. So, they lose nothing and gain something. Actually, DEN is boosting them quite a bit right now.	10	59.30 (9 – 1) / 43 #2 – #23
7		*(Beat TEN)* The problem the Broncos had was that they didn’t have any beatwins last week. Beating the Titans fixed that.	21	56.98 (8 – 2) / 43 #3 – #24
8		*(Beat MIA)* One of the benefits of being too ~~lazy~~ busy to do this on Tuesday is that I got to know about the Randy Moss trade before I wrote. I have to admit, this is really surprising to me. I guess they were good on Monday night, but I don’t think that defense is going to hold up and without Moss, are you really going to outscore people?	14	55.81 (7 – 2) / 43 #3 – #26
9		*(Bye)* So far, Beatpaths is basically saying that the Chiefs haven’t beaten anyone impressive. This week is their chance to change all that.	7	53.49 (3 – 0) / 43 #1 – #29
10		*(Beat DET)* The Packers shed their only beatloss when the Giants beat down the Bears. But it cost them their win over the Eagles, which hurts them more. C’est la vie.	8	52.33 (2 – 0) / 43 #1 – #30
11		*(Lost to NYG)* Yeah, remember last week when I said I wasn’t ready to believe in the Bears yet? Me either, I just happened to come across it. The Bears are in the same position as the Packers, but more so, Beatpaths-wise. Real football-wise, I really don’t believe that the Packers and Cowboys are incapable of rushing the passer, so I have to think it was just a bad matchup for the OLine/Cutler (who was holding the ball WAY too long). But even if that is the case, they might have to face the Giants again if they want to get to the Super Bowl. I don’t look forward to that.	3	52.33 (2 – 0) / 43 #1 – #30
12		*(Lost to DEN)* The Titans still have a lot of teams below them, but they now have a lot more teams above them, which drops them down.	5	52.33 (7 – 5) / 43 #6 – #25
13		*(Lost to SD)* The loss to San Diego gets looped away by the Chargers’ loss to Seattle (Sd=>ARI=>STL=>SEA=>SD), costing the Cardinals only their win over the Rams. No big loss, but no gain either.	11	52.33 (5 – 3) / 43 #4 – #27
14		*(Beat CAR)* Saints also pushed down some from more people on top of them. I am buying the Drew Brees injury story; there is no way that tea should be playing the Panthers so close.	12	51.16 (4 – 3) / 43 #4 – #28
15		*(Lost to STL)* Meanwhile, Seattle was already looping away it’s win over San Diego, so no big loss here, and they loop away this loss too.	17	51.16 (1 – 0) / 43 #1 – #31
16		*(Bye)* I am very interested in seeing what the Bucs do coming out of the break.	13	50.00 (2 – 2) / 43 #3 – #30
17		*(Beat IND)* Jaguars manage the impressive feat of being completely unrelated to any teams at all after 4 weeks. We know nothing about this team.	22	50.00 (0 – 0) / 43 #1 – #32
18		*(Beat ARI)* Now here’s a way to make sense of all this Randy Moss nonsense–the Patriots trade a 3rd (or maybe even a 2nd) to the Chargers for Vincent Jackson. Then, the Patriots are basically replacing (well, trying to) Moss with a younger version of him, for a cheap overall price. Still weird to do it in the middle of the season, but who knows. Oh, and as mentioned, the Chargers loop away this win immediately, leaving them with no beatwins.	19	48.84 (0 – 1) / 43 #2 – #32
19		*(Lost to NE)* Miami goes from having one team above it to having 3. That’s gonna ruin your day and your Edgepower.	9	48.84 (3 – 4) / 43 #4 – #29
20		*(Bye)* Nothing happened to this team during the bye week. Literally. Maybe they’ll be more interesting when they play.	20	48.84 (0 – 1) / 43 #2 – #32
21		*(Lost to CLE)* The Bengals make a weak position weaker by losing to the Browns. I was giving the Bengals (and Carson Palmer) the benefit of the doubt as long as they kept defeating division opponents. So much for that.	16	47.67 (1 – 3) / 43 #4 – #31
22		*(Beat CIN)* Browns now find themselves only below two of the most unimpressive winning teams out there. I suppose it’s possible that the Chiefs and Buccaneers are part of a new wave of powerhouses and the Browns are a good team that just got unlucky matchups, but I doubt it.	26	45.35 (0 – 4) / 43 #5 – #32
23		*(Beat CHI)* The Giants don’t get the win due to the 6 team beatloop, and don’t really shed any losses. So they’re mired right where they were last week.	23	44.19 (1 – 6) / 43 #7 – #31
24		*(Lost to HOU)* That goes double for the Raiders, except they didn’t loop away their loss. But Houston is so high up the charts that they would have had paths to Oakland anyway.	24	43.02 (4 – 10) / 43 #9 – #28
25		*(Lost to ATL)* Well, San Fran. You get some lucky breaks early on and still can’t pull it out. Not looking too good for you.	28	41.86 (0 – 7) / 43 #7 – #32
26		*(Bye)* Meanwhile, I’m not sure if Randy Moss is the cure to the Vikings’ ills, but it’s certainly worth taking a shot. If I’m Brett Favre, I’d start making weirder and weirder demands just to see if the Vikings capitulate.	25	40.70 (1 – 9) / 43 #8 – #31
27		*(Lost to NYJ)* I know it’s spilt milk and all that but the Bills had RBs and no QBs, and they took a RB in the 1st round. Somewhere they forgot that QB was the most important position in the NFL now. It’s not 1982 anymore, guys (if it ever was). Remember Jim Kelly? At least they recouped some of that with the Lynch trade.	27	40.70 (0 – / 43 #6 – #32
28		*(Beat SEA)* Rams don’t get anything from the win since it gets looped away. But they’re climbing, if only barely. And they look better for sure. I’m really mad that I didn’t pick the Rams in my pick’em league this past week because for some reason I thought the game was in Seattle.	29	40.70 (3 – 11) / 43 #10 – #29
29		*(Beat PHI)* My opinion of the Redskins is closer to what Beatpaths says than what the consensus seems to be. It’s possible that the NFC East isn’t that good this year, guys.	30	38.37 (2 – 12) / 43 #11 – #30
30		*(Lost to WAS)* Philly plummets due to finding themselves under Washington, who is under almost everyone.	18	36.05 (1 – 13) / 43 #12 – #31
31		*(Lost to NO)* I guess we’ll see if these guys can pull it out against the Bears’ backup QB this week. They were closer last week, at least.	31	31.40 (0 – 16) / 43 #14 – #32
32		*(Lost to GB)* Meanwhile, the Lions are really close in all these games. I really think this team is better than 0-4. I suppose this kind of agony isn’t as bad as 0-16 agony, but maybe it is. At least the Lions are changing it up for their fans.	32	22.09 (0 – 24) / 43 #20 – #32

2010 NFL Week 3 Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 07:29:56 +0000

Hey hey, folks! Kenneth here, and like our illustrious host I’m running behind on things too. Fortunately, it looks like we’re all getting into gear on the site now, so hopefully it will all go smoothly from here on out. Chances of that…low. But how about the rankings? I don’t have much time right now, but then, there’s not much to say–there’s not too much in the way of interesting of the graph (although there are some fun 4 team beatloops!). So, more of just general commentary on me. More in depth loop analysis in later weeks! But I’ve talked too much…let’s get to the rankings!

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat TB)* For a team missing all of its quarterbacks, the Steelers look pretty good right now. They actually remind me of many recent Bears teams, who also played without a quarterback. The only difference is that these Steelers are going to get one in a few games.	1	72.97 (17 – 0) / 37 #1 – #18
2		*(Beat NO)* Apparently there’s no shame in losing to the Steelers. The Falcons have been playing it close in a lot of their games so far, but they’re clearly a quality team.	13	60.81 (9 – 1) / 37 #2 – #24
3		*(Beat GB)* I’m not sure at what point I’ll finally lose my doubts and start believing in this team, but it hasn’t happened yet. I’m at least confident that they can play with anyone in the NFC.	8	59.46 (7 – 0) / 37 #1 – #26
4		*(Lost to DAL)* There’s no shame in losing to Dallas, but only if you beatloop it away with a win over Washington. Hey! Beatloop talk! We’ll see if these new Texans keep up the winning ways the entire season. I’m not convinced that they’re really different than last year, but then, they kind of underachieved last year. Maybe this year they’re just cashing in on that potential.	3	55.41 (4 – 0) / 37 #1 – #28
5		*(Beat NYG)* What I don’t like about the Vince Young benching is that it was basically an admission that they couldn’t handle the Steelers D. I felt they were saying “we have no way of beating the Steelers if we have to face them again”. Well, gee, I wonder if that’s going to happen?	10	55.41 (5 – 1) / 37 #2 – #27
6		*(Beat MIA)* I haven’t decided if I’m joining in on the backlash against the Jets or the backlash against the backlash against the Jets.	18	55.41 (4 – 0) / 37 #1 – #28
7		*(Beat SF)* I have a coworker who is a big Chargers fans, so I have trouble rooting for the Chiefs openly. But they seem like such a feel good story to me.	2	54.05 (3 – 0) / 37 #1 – #29
8		*(Lost to CHI)* Oof, guys. Soldier Field couldn’t have been THAT loud. There was enough yellow cloth on that field to stitch new pants for all the Packers players.	4	54.05 (4 – 1) / 37 #2 – #28
9		*(Lost to NYJ)* I don’t know why, but I just can’t get behind this team as being equal to the other big boys in the AFC East. Maybe I’m just not familiar with them. I know little about their non-Wildcat offense and less about their defense.	7	52.70 (3 – 1) / 37 #2 – #29
10		*(Beat DEN)* Got all that “undefeated season” talk out of the way early. That’s good, I guess. At some point these guys have to miss the playoffs at least once, right?	12	52.70 (3 – 1) / 37 #2 – #29
11		*(Beat OAK)* Really, I’m shocked at this ranking. These Cardinals do not look good. Which in the NFC West, means they’re the leaders.	20	52.70 (4 – 2) / 37 #3 – #29
12		*(Lost to ATL)* Didn’t the NO kicker make a game winning field goal in the previous game? Didn’t he make one in the Super Bowl? Didn’t he make the game tying field goal at the end of regulation? Why is everyone blowing up over that (admittedly awful) missed one in overtime? Kickers don’t make them all, folks.	6	51.35 (3 – 2) / 37 #3 – #29
13		*(Lost to PIT)* The lowest ranked of the “no shame in losing to the Steelers” club. I’ve actually been higher on the Buccaneers than most going into this season. I think that’s because I have a higher opinion of Josh Freeman than most. I didn’t like the kid coming out of college, but I think he can be a winner.	9	51.35 (2 – 1) / 37 #2 – #30
14		*(Beat BUF)* If you weren’t worried about the defense before, seeing Buffalo put up that many points has to have you worried.	14	51.35 (1 – 0) / 37 #1 – #31
15		*(Beat CLE)* That win over Cleveland was scarily close (I mean, for a win over Cleveland). Maybe Baltimore is just going to have that kind of year, where they win all the time but not by much. That would be consistent with a defensive team, I suppose.	15	51.35 (1 – 0) / 37 #1 – #31
16		*(Beat CAR)* I know the Bengals showed they’re not on the same level as the Patriots and Carson Palmer looks out of wack. But they beat Baltimore. If, IF, they can win in their division again, they might just get back to the playoffs.	19	51.35 (1 – 0) / 37 #1 – #31
17		*(Beat SD)* So…what the heck is going on with the Seahawks? It seems like they must be at least halfway decent. Maybe?	27	51.35 (1 – 0) / 37 #1 – #31
18		*(Beat JAC)* Having drafted Kevin Kolb in two of my fantasy leagues, I am certainly peeved by Vickmania. But I have to admit that he’s made some throws and decisions I would have never expected Michael Vick to make.	17	50.00 (2 – 2) / 37 #3 – #30
19		*(Lost to SEA)* Phillip Rivers has all the problems with the rest of his team that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have, except more so and he’s not as good. That won’t work forever.	5	48.65 (0 – 1) / 37 #2 – #32
20		*(Beat HOU)* Not convinced by the one game turnaround. The Cowboys have a lot of talent, but how many games are they going to show up for and put it together?	28	48.65 (0 – 1) / 37 #2 – #32
21		*(Lost to IND)* So, I hate Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow, but I feel bad rooting against TT’s team. So, I guess, either way i win. Losing to Indy is no shame, but losing to Jacksonville?	22	47.30 (0 – 2) / 37 #3 – #32
22		*(Lost to PHI)* Where have you gone, Jaguars? Does this team do anything well?	11	45.95 (0 – 3) / 37 #4 – #32
23		*(Lost to TEN)* This team is a mess. Like the Cowboys, except I trust them even less to put it together on any given day. Having said that, watch them go out this week and beat my Bears.	21	45.95 (1 – 4) / 37 #5 – #31
24		*(Lost to ARI)* I had a lot of hope for Jason Campbell this season. Shows what I know.	23	45.95 (2 – 5) / 37 #5 – #30
25		*(Beat DET)* The big boost that Favre gave them last year kind of overshadowed the fact that the core is rotting out on this team. The OLine is not the dominant force it once was, and the defense is slipping a bit too (although still statistically doing well). If only you hadn’t have wasted those years on Tavaris Jackson, Brad Childress…	24	44.59 (1 – 5) / 37 #6 – #31
26		*(Lost to BAL)* I don’t have anything to say about the Browns, so I’ll just take this moment to mention how much I want LeBron to fail. I mean, if you wanna play with your buddies in Miami, just say so. Don’t hem and haw and pretend like you wanna dance with everyone and make everyone pay attention to your serious deliberations about a decision you made months ago. Man, I hope they NEVER win. The Browns, I guess I hope win sometime.	26	44.59 (0 – 4) / 37 #5 – #32
27		*(Lost to NE)* Even when they put up a lot of offense, I can’t take that as a good sign for them. I can only see it as a bad sign for the opponent. I really wish the Bills would get better soon.	25	43.24 (0 – 5) / 37 #6 – #32
28		*(Lost to KC)* I think Mike Singletary is suffering from a form of Bears Syndrome, in which you think it’s more important to be tough and play defense and run the ball tough than it is to win games. At least, that would explain the 49ers offense.	31	43.24 (0 – 5) / 37 #6 – #32
29		*(Beat WAS)* I was skeptical about drafting him over Suh, but I gotta tell you I’ve watched a little of this Bradford kid and he looks pretty good. He might be the real deal. The Rams better hope he is. And that one of their tackles pans out.	32	41.89 (1 – 7) / 37 #6 – #31
30		*(Lost to STL)* Losing to the Rams is NOT good. What were they thinking with that RB corps?	16	39.19 (0 – / 37 #7 – #32
31		*(Lost to CIN)* The Panthers–making the most dysfunctional of teams look extremely competent.	30	39.19 (0 – / 37 #8 – #32
32		*(Lost to MIN)* Of course, I think Suh is the real deal, too. (At least, I hope he is, because otherwise the Bear’s interior OLine really sucks). A lot of people seem to think the Matt Stafford injury really hurt the team. I agree it does in the long run, but for right now, what makes people think that Stafford was going to give them more than Hill is?	29	36.49 (0 – 10) / 37 #10 – #32

2009 NFL Super Bowl Beatpaths Power Rankings

ThunderThumbs — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 04:18:24 +0000

Hey everyone! Doing a bit of catchup here so the entire season doesn’t slip away from us. We’ll start out with the rankings for the beginning of the 2010 season. These are the same rankings that existed just after the Super Bowl of last season. “Last Week” refers to the rankings before the Super Bowl, after the conference championships.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Beat IND)* It was quite a journey, but New Orleans finally claims the top spot in the rankings by defeating Indianapolis for the Super Bowl championship.	2	89.06 (100 – 0) / 128 #1 – #6
2		*(Bye)* San Diego still manages to hold off Indianapolis for #2.	1	82.42 (83 – 0) / 128 #1 – #9
3		*(Lost to NO)* Indianapolis remains at #3. I’ll leave the rest of the commentary blank below – minor rankings shifts are just because of various beatloop adjustments.	3	81.25 (81 – 1) / 128 #2 – #8
4		*(Bye)*	4	75.00 (66 – 2) / 128 #3 – #11
5		*(Bye)*	6	73.83 (62 – 1) / 128 #2 – #13
6		*(Bye)*	5	73.44 (64 – 4) / 128 #4 – #12
7		*(Bye)*	7	70.31 (56 – 4) / 128 #4 – #14
8		*(Bye)*	8	65.23 (39 – 0) / 128 #1 – #20
9		*(Bye)*	9	64.06 (49 – 13) / 128 #8 – #15
10		*(Bye)*	10	60.16 (26 – 0) / 128 #1 – #21
11		*(Bye)*	11	57.81 (35 – 15) / 128 #9 – #19
12		*(Bye)*	12	56.25 (24 – / 128 #7 – #22
13		*(Bye)*	13	56.25 (32 – 16) / 128 #10 – #21
14		*(Bye)*	14	53.12 (27 – 19) / 128 #12 – #22
15		*(Bye)*	17	51.95 (16 – 11) / 128 #8 – #24
16		*(Bye)*	15	51.17 (5 – 2) / 128 #3 – #29
17		*(Bye)*	19	50.78 (4 – 2) / 128 #3 – #28
18		*(Bye)*	16	50.00 (2 – 2) / 128 #3 – #30
19		*(Bye)*	20	46.48 (15 – 24) / 128 #13 – #24
20		*(Bye)*	21	46.48 (7 – 16) / 128 #9 – #28
21		*(Bye)*	18	46.09 (6 – 16) / 128 #9 – #29
22		*(Bye)*	23	44.92 (14 – 27) / 128 #15 – #24
23		*(Bye)*	22	42.58 (4 – 23) / 128 #11 – #30
24		*(Bye)*	24	42.19 (0 – 20) / 128 #11 – #32
25		*(Bye)*	26	37.50 (10 – 42) / 128 #18 – #25
26		*(Bye)*	25	32.03 (3 – 49) / 128 #19 – #29
27		*(Bye)*	27	31.25 (2 – 50) / 128 #19 – #31
28		*(Bye)*	28	28.91 (0 – 54) / 128 #19 – #32
29		*(Bye)*	29	25.78 (2 – 64) / 128 #23 – #30
30		*(Bye)*	31	24.22 (0 – 66) / 128 #22 – #32
31		*(Bye)*	30	19.53 (1 – 79) / 128 #26 – #31
32		*(Bye)*	32	15.23 (0 – 89) / 128 #27 – #32

2009 NFL Conference Round Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:32:20 +0000

Here you go, guys! The last rankings before the final ones! There is actually some movement this week, although nothing earth-shattering. As for next week, I’ll leave it to TT to say for sure but my read is that the Saints are playing for a beatpath and the Colts aren’t. More motivation for y’all, N’awlins! Who dat?

You can find this week’s graph here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Bye)* Hey, look! The Chargers are still on top. Still just barely ahead of the Saints. Overall, I’m surprised that a team with so many apparent weaknesses did so well this season.	1	82.68 (83 – 0) / 127 #1 – #9
2		*(Beat MIN)* The win over the Vikings is looped away in a 3 team loop with the Dallas, which was already looped away, so no benefit for the Saints here. I’m happy for Saints fans, but they did not look particularly good in that game. They got lucky.	2	82.28 (82 – 0) / 127 #1 – #10
3		*(Beat NYJ)* The Colts get the season split, which gives them back some invisible paths but nothing that shows up in the graph. They are much closer to the Saints, though; this game should be a toss-up, essentially, from Beatpaths view.	3	81.89 (81 – 0) / 127 #1 – #8
4		*(Bye)* No change in the Broncos position. The win over New England is their big claim to fame this year; without it, they’d have much less prestige.	4	75.59 (66 – 1) / 127 #2 – #11
5		*(Bye)* Here’s the big question I have about the Patriots from this season: do they really do that whole parade thing in New England, like they do in the Visa commercial? I mean, the whole nine yards, with the horse and cannon and everything? I’m assuming it’s fake, but I don’t really know, and the commercial is stupid (well, extra stupid) if it is fake.	5	74.02 (64 – 3) / 127 #4 – #12
6		*(Bye)* Since the Cowboys’ win over the Saints was already looped away from the Giants, and their loss to the Vikings was looped away by the Panthers, the extra beatloop didn’t cost the Cowboys any, or gain them anything either. So, they stay right where they are. Like so many teams this week.	6	74.02 (62 – 1) / 127 #2 – #13
7		*(Bye)* In the past few weeks I’ve come to the feeling that either decision is going to be the wrong one for the Eagles regarding McNabb. If they trade him, they’re not going to do as well with Kolb, but I don’t know that he’ll be good enough for them if he stays. I guess that means you should get on with and go with Kolb, but I have trouble trading away a Pro Bowl QB.	7	70.47 (56 – 4) / 127 #4 – #14
8		*(Lost to NO)* No big change for the Vikings, either (they lost an edge somewhere, not sure where). I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team that fumble-happy. This loss is going to sting for awhile, I think. Now we have to listen to Brett Favre Watch, again. Great.	8	65.35 (39 – 0) / 127 #1 – #20
9		*(Bye)* I don’t have anything much to say about Falcons present, right now. But how about Falcons past? Apparently Michael Vick thinks he still belongs in the top tier of quarterbacks. Count me as one of the people whose big problem with that is the word “still”.	9	64.57 (49 – 12) / 127 #8 – #15
10		*(Bye)* I guess it’s nice for Steelers Nation that they don’t have to worry about having to face Cowher this season. They can save that drama explosion for another year.	10	60.24 (26 – 0) / 127 #1 – #21
11		*(Lost to IND)* Hey, guess what! Some teams DID have big shifts this week! Not the Jets, though. But they were part of a very important happening this week. See, the season split took away their victory over the Colts at the 2 team level. That means that the loop that was formed before, JAC=>NYJ=>IND=>JAC, didn’t appear at the 3 team level, and thus JAC=>NYJ continued through the process. If you’ve been reading all season, that game might sound familiar to you. The JAC=>NYJ game got removed eventually in two 4 team beatloops: NYJ=>CIN=>CLE=>JAC=>NYJ and NYJ=>CAR=>ARI=>JAC=>NYJ. The first just removes one of the Jets victories over Cincy, but they have another; the second, though, removes their beatpath to Carolina. It still doesn’t hurt them enough to drop them anywhere, but you can be sure this will come up later.	11	58.27 (35 – 14) / 127 #9 – #19
12		*(Bye)* Meanwhile, nothing particularly interesting happened to the Titans. Here is where I wished I had watched more of the Pro Bowl, so I could say something about Vince Young, or something.	12	56.69 (24 – 7) / 127 #7 – #22
13		*(Bye)* I guess I’m curious what the next move is for the Bengals. It seems like they need more WRs, I guess, because Ochocinco won’t be around forever, and they’re shallow even with him; but I have to imagine that there’s a more pressing need.	13	56.69 (32 – 15) / 127 #10 – #21
14		*(Bye)* Funny moment of the Pro Bowl that I did catch; at one point Aaron Rodgers (I think it was him) called a play, and then one of the wide receivers looked at him like “what?” And Rodgers just kind of sighed and yelled, “a post! Run a post!”. Mighta been Matt Schaub. Anyway, it was funny.	14	53.54 (27 – 18) / 127 #12 – #22
15		*(Bye)* The aforementioned loop (ARI=>JAC=>NYJ=>CAR=>ARI) costs the Cardinals their win over the Jaguars, but gives them back a win over the Bears. Even though the Bears are ranked lower than the Jags, they give more support because they have more (lousy) teams under them. That helps the Cards, and they move up.	17	52.36 (16 – 10) / 127 #8 – #24
16		*(Bye)* I hear that the Giants are considering hiring (former Chicago Offensive Coordinator) Ron Turner as their QB coach. I feel like that’s ironic, but I can’t actually explain why.	15	51.18 (5 – 2) / 127 #3 – #29
17		*(Bye)* Getting out from under the Cardinals removes a lot of teams from on top of the Jags, so they move up from that.	19	51.18 (4 – 1) / 127 #2 – #28
18		*(Bye)* Texans didn’t actually change from last week, it’s just stuff happening to other teams that moves them. Now that he won the Pro Bowl MVP, do you think Matt Schaub will skip it next year (if asked)?	16	50.39 (2 – 1) / 127 #2 – #30
19		*(Bye)* How come Ray Rice wasn’t this good last season? Kid’s got game.	20	46.85 (15 – 23) / 127 #13 – #24
20		*(Bye)* Okay, check this: Last week, there were two 5 team beatloops, of BUF=>CAR=>ARI=>ARI=>CHI=>CLE=>BUF and BUF=>CAR=>ARI=>ARI=>DET=>CLE=>BUF. But both of those depended on CAR=>ARI, which as we saw before is now knocked out in a 4 team beatloop (NYJ=>CAR=>ARI=>JAC=>NYJ), so those loops are gone. Long story short is that BUF=>CAR is back in the graph, which boosts Buffalo up a bit.	21	46.85 (7 – 15) / 127 #9 – #28
21		*(Bye)* Somewhere above the Dolphins there’s a redundant path that is causing the Dolphins to drop; I think it might be IND=>MIA, which was looped away last week from the Jets, but now isn’t. That one extra edge above them, though, is pretty much the reason for the drop (besides the Bills looking better). But the Ravens, Bills, and Dolphins are all really close.	18	46.46 (6 – 15) / 127 #9 – #29
22		*(Bye)* Niners were basically tied with the Panthers last week, but they look about the same and Panthers don’t, so they move up one. Yes, I’m really stretching into the minutiae here.	23	45.28 (14 – 26) / 127 #15 – #24
23		*(Bye)* So, I presume Moore is the answer in Carolina? What are they going to with Delhomme?	22	42.91 (4 – 22) / 127 #11 – #30
24		*(Bye)* Coming up is something everyone can enjoy: what crazy thing will Al Davis do this offseason? Can anything top Darius Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree?	24	42.52 (0 – 19) / 127 #11 – #32
25		*(Bye)* I’ve actually been following the Bears (naturally), so I have something to say. I’m very worried about the Martz hire. His previous systems don’t fit the Bears’ personnel at all, and while he’s smart enough to be able to design something that will work, I don’t know that he has the humility to do it. And if he doesn’t, I think the Bears are doomed.	26	37.80 (10 – 41) / 127 #18 – #25
26		*(Bye)* There’s actually a big drop here–the Browns are back under the Bears, which gives them a lot more edge above them–but not enough to actually move them very far. I guess step one for Holmgren is to trade for Green Bay’s backup quarterback? Surely he’s not going to pick up the Seahawks’ backup. Right?	25	32.28 (3 – 48) / 127 #19 – #29
27		*(Bye)* See, that’s how bad Seattle was this year. They gained a large amount of ground on the Browns, but couldn’t overtake them in the rankings. You can argue at what point the Beatpaths “League Of Crap” teams start–it’s probably right after the Raiders, honestly–but it sure seems like there’s a real difference starting here.	27	31.50 (2 – 49) / 127 #19 – #31
28		*(Bye)* Supposedly the Tigers are going to be bad this year, too. My plan to destroy all Detroit sports team is working! Just think if I actually did anything.	28	29.13 (0 – 53) / 127 #19 – #32
29		*(Bye)* I suppose we’ll have to wait for the draft to see, but right now it’s hard to see the Chiefs being markedly better next season.	29	25.98 (2 – 63) / 127 #23 – #30
30		*(Bye)* The exciting news for me in St. Louis is that some railways connecting to the city were awarded high speed rail funds. If they improve things enough, they can make it even easier for opposing team’s fans to come in and buy all their tickets.	31	24.41 (0 – 65) / 127 #22 – #32
31		*(Bye)* The Redskins were in a virtual tie with the Rams for thirtieth last week, but the Browns going under the Bears killed that dream. Good luck Shanny!	30	19.69 (1 – 78) / 127 #26 – #31
32		*(Bye)* Looks like the winner of the Beatpaths total loser title this year is going to be the Bucs. Too bad–they seemed like they had promise and really tried this year; I hate to dump on a team like that.	32	15.35 (0 – 88) / 127 #27 – #32

Ranking Analysis – Divisional Round

Tom — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 22:40:50 +0000

Hey folks, Tom here with the ranking analysis for last week’s divisional round playoff games. No big movers this week, and the overall numbers stay quite the same as last week.

As you can see, the stability remains the same as last week, which is expected given the small number of games, and the absorption of upset wins last week by beatloops. Because there’s no big mover this week (a team moving 10+ ranks) you can see that the variance has gone down compared to last week. This week has the lowest variance of any week this season. Given that there are only two games coming up this Sunday, we might expect even lower numbers for stability and variance, especially if there are no upsets.

Pick Confidence – Conference Championships

Last week the two low confidence picks were upsets, while the two high confidence picks went as expected. This week the higher confidence pick is Indianapolis over the NY Jets, while the matchup the system sees as closer is New Orleans over Minnesota.

Matchup _{(Winner-Loser)}	“Confidence” _{(out of 100)}	EdgePower comparison _{(predicted winner – predicted loser)}	Result
Indianapolis-NY Jets	21.77	81.45-59.68	✓
New Orleans-Minnesota	17.74	83.06-65.32	✓

As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results as they roll in.

2009 NFL Wildcard Beatpaths Power Rankings

Kenneth — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 14:40:22 +0000

Hey folks! Kenneth here again. Not so much movement in the graph–a lot of little shuffling, but otherwise mostly stable. But what can you expect with only 4 games? On to the rankings!

You can see the graph that I’m always talking about here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		*(Bye)* Going to be an interesting game, here. The thing the Chargers do best–the only thing they really do well, actually–is pass, which is what the Jets stop the best. I think the Chargers will pull it out, but then, I had them meeting the Packers in the Super Bowl.	1	84.68 (86 – 0) / 124 #1 – #8
2		*(Bye)* On the other hand, I think the Saints should be scared as hell of the Cardinals. Either team coming out of that game looked like poison to the Saints. I mean, they both have at least as good a defense as the Saints do currently, and they clearly have a strong enough offense. What advantages does New Orleans have that Green Bay didn’t? Besides home field advantage, I can’t think of one.	2	83.47 (83 – 0) / 124 #1 – #9
3		*(Bye)* The Colts jump up here because the two teams above them fall. Although they do look significantly better this week, due to an old beatpath looking LOTS better. Foreshadowing!	5	81.85 (79 – 0) / 124 #1 – #8
4		*(Beat PHI)* The Cowboys finally, once and for all, establish a beatpath over the Eagles. I suppose they might lose it with a loss to the Cardinals, if it gets there.	6	77.82 (70 – 1) / 124 #2 – #11
5		*(Bye)* Surprise! You weren’t expecting this, were you? It’s due to the Ravens stomping the Patriots. There used to be a BAL=>DEN=>NE=>BAL beatloop, but with a season split now between Baltimore and New England, DEN=>NE re-enters the graph. BAL=>DEN stays out, however, because of a 3 team beatloop with Cincinnati. Long story short, the Broncos are now situated right on top of the Patriots, which gives them a TON of support they didn’t have before. They are also the mystery beatpath helping the Colts out. Delivering On Promises!	19	77.02 (68 – 1) / 124 #2 – #10
6		*(Lost to BAL)* Wow, that was a beatdown. You would have thought that New England would be a team that could come back from a 24-0 start, but they didn’t even seem to try. And Brady was making some awful decisions–that first INT, for example. The pessimist would say that he looked like Jay Cutler against the Ravens; I am ever the optimist and like to think that Jay Cutler looked like Tom Brady! In any case, the Pats don’t lose much, since they still have two crucial beatpaths over the Falcons and Titans. In fact, the system still has them as a beatpick over the Ravens!	3	75.40 (66 – 3) / 124 #4 – #11
7		*(Lost to DAL)* The Cowboys and Eagles were very close before, so this loss is not seen as a big deal in the system. On the one hand, I see how successful the Eagles are and think it’s crazy to start breaking them up. But on the other hand–when was the last time you felt good about the Eagles’ chances going into the postseason? At some point, they have to stop going in there just hoping to get lucky, right?	4	74.19 (64 – 4) / 124 #4 – #12
8		*(Bye)* Once again, the Falcons play the role of Atlas, holding up all the teams above. In Beatpath’s ’09, you’re either above the Falcons or you’re under them. That was less profound than it sounded in my head.	10	68.15 (57 – 12) / 124 #8 – #13
9		*(Bye)* Vikings still don’t really have any impressive victories to their name, which is why they’re down here without any beatlosses. They can improve that this weekend by beating the Cowboys, though.	7	64.11 (35 – 0) / 124 #1 – #20
10		*(Beat CIN)* Jets gain a beatpath to Cincinnati, which gives them some more teams underneath. Which is nice. Beating the Chargers would do even more damage.	13	62.90 (46 – 14) / 124 #9 – #16
11		*(Bye)* I suppose there are differences between linchpins. I implied above that the Falcons and Titans were both linchpin teams, but the Steelers only have the Titans underneath them, and this is all that can do for them. Still useful, sure, but not as impressive as a win over the Falcons would be.	9	60.48 (26 – 0) / 124 #1 – #22
12		*(Bye)* So how confident are Tennessee people about Vince Young, really? I feel like next season there’s such a large range of possible outcomes. It’s both frightening and exciting. It’s frightciting!	12	56.85 (24 – 7) / 124 #7 – #23
13		*(Lost to NYJ)* So much for ending the season with no beatlosses. It seems like Carson Palmer has run out of time on his reputation. I hear a lot of talk about an injury; I guess for Cincy’s sake they should hope that’s what it is.	8	55.65 (29 – 15) / 124 #10 – #23
14		*(Bye)* This is when the comments start getting hard, folks. Here’s something: how many more years is the Ricky Williams show going to go on? I guess it’s not a huge concern, as the Dolphins still have Ronnie Brown, but losing Williams would be a big blow.	14	52.82 (22 – 15) / 124 #9 – #21
15		*(Lost to ARI)* The loss just creates a season split between Arizona and Green Bay. Previously, there was a 3 team beatloop with the Vikings, but that doesn’t matter so much to the Packers since they lost twice to Minnesota. For what it’s worth, I don’t think the Packers got jobbed. The fumble was forced cleanly, even if there was a facemask afterwards. After that, things are just random; it’s not like that facemask had an effect on the play, after all.	11	52.42 (24 – 18) / 124 #12 – #24
16		*(Bye)* Texans, literally with the same graph as last week. I’d love to talk more about this team, but really I don’t know much about them outside of their fantasy players. How is Mario Williams doing? I have no idea.	17	50.40 (2 – 1) / 124 #2 – #30
17		*(Bye)* In the pseudo-second season for non-playoff teams of hiring new coaching staffs, my Bears are locked in a tight battle with the Giants for a new defensive coordinator in Perry Fewell. I don’t know how much I liked the Bills’ defense last year but how cool would it be to have the guy from Jane’s Addiction on your staff?	18	50.40 (3 – 2) / 124 #3 – #29
18		*(Bye)* Remember how big Julius Peppers Watch ’09 was? Is there a chance of that happening again this offseason?	16	49.60 (20 – 21) / 124 #11 – #22
19		*(Beat NE)* As mentioned above, beating the Patriots removed NE=>DEN but didn’t change anything for the Ravens, thanks to losses to the Bengals. So, the Ravens are down here, stuck beneath the Packers. Beating the Colts would probably help, though.	15	45.97 (12 – 22) / 124 #13 – #26
20		*(Beat GB)* On the Cardinals’ side of ARI=>GB, the win does little. Before, GB=>ARI was looped away in a 3 team beatloop with Minnesota; now it’s in a season split. That would give back ARI=>MIN, but it’s also present in a 3 team beatloop with San Francisco (ARI=>MIN=>SF=>ARI), so no change for the Cardinals…yet.	21	45.16 (16 – 28) / 124 #14 – #25
21		*(Bye)* Does anyone in Buffalo want to spin the TO wheel again? Huh? Oh, let’s face it, this is not going to get interesting until they hire someone.	22	44.76 (2 – 15) / 124 #9 – #30
22		*(Bye)* The graph can play tricks on you, shifting the placement of teams without really changing the graph too much. The 49ers look worse off compared to last week by the eyeball test, but nothing has really changed.	20	43.95 (11 – 26) / 124 #15 – #27
23		*(Bye)* Who really knows what’s going on in Al Davis’ head? I wouldn’t have thought it would be hard to fire a guy you hired as a midseason replacement last year, but apparently it is.	23	42.34 (0 – 19) / 124 #11 – #32
24		*(Bye)* The Jaguars seem to have the Eagles’ problem, except that they’re not as good so they don’t get playoff appearances. Or, maybe they’re as good but they have to play the Colts twice every year. I’m surprised at how quickly opinion has turned against David Garrard. Do people really not think he’s worth building around anymore?	24	38.71 (2 – 30) / 124 #15 – #30
25		*(Bye)* Oh, drat–I wrote about the Shanahan hire last week. What to talk about this week? Uh, let’s see…who’s going to be the free agent that Washington drastically overpays this year? If there was a CBA I might go for Brandon Marshall, but I’m pretty sure that without an agreement he’s a restricted free agent.	25	37.90 (0 – 30) / 124 #14 – #32
26		*(Bye)* Not directly related to the Bucs of today, but why is Monte Kiffin following his son everywhere? This guy can’t get good jobs for himself somewhere, without having to work for someone who acts like a jerk all the time? I know, his son and all, but geez.	26	35.48 (0 – 36) / 124 #15 – #32
27		*(Bye)* Little to talk about here. The news on the Bears is more who they didn’t get (Bates, Weis, Packers QB coach whose name escapes me) than who they got. Although they appear to have officially-unofficially told Mike Martz it’s not happening, which is a Good Thing.	27	33.87 (7 – 47) / 124 #20 – #28
28		*(Bye)* I dunno if this whole Patriots West thing is going to pay off for the Chiefs. I mean, outside of Pioli it’s been awhile since these guys were on top of the world in New England, and subsequent events indicate that maybe these guys weren’t the cornerstone of that success. Weis in particular; I think people conflate what Tom Brady is now with the Patriots under his guidance, but New England didn’t really have a great offense when Weis was there. They were a defensive team.	28	29.44 (0 – 51) / 124 #22 – #32
29		*(Bye)* My read on this is that USC was/is about to get blasted to the stone age with sanctions, and Carroll wanted to get out of Dodge. Now he can fumble around the NFL for awhile, then go back to college somewhere in 3 years with the Nick Saban “he’s just a great college coach” reputation and make the big bucks again. And heck, if he wins in the NFL, icing on the cake! Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but that’s how I see it. Good luck, Seattle.	29	28.63 (2 – 55) / 124 #21 – #31
30		*(Bye)* Looks like the Mangenius gets another go at it. I’m curious what Holmgren is looking for next season. Is he going to be okay with Mangini if he has a 6-10 season? Because I’m not sure expecting more than that is reasonable.	30	28.63 (0 – 53) / 124 #21 – #32
31		*(Bye)* I guess the Lions are helped by the fact that the Pistons suck now, too. All they have to do is knock down the Tigers and Red Wings, and things won’t seem as bad in Ford Field!	31	26.21 (0 – 59) / 124 #21 – #32
32		*(Bye)* I suppose I should really start paying attention to the local news, to see where these guys are going to go in the draft. Although it’s early, so I guess I can wait. Besides, I’m pretty sure if I looked at a St. Louis sports page right now it’d mostly be filled with cries of “how are we going to pay Pujols if we’re paying Matt Holiday all that money?”	32	20.97 (0 – 72) / 124 #24 – #32

Beatpaths » Uncategorized

2010 NFL Week 13 Beatpaths Power Rankings

1

2

65.33

2

3

64.67

3

4

63.33

4

7

62.00

5

5

61.33

6

1

60.67

7

6

58.67

8

8

56.67

9

9

56.00

10

15

53.33

11

11

52.00

12

14

52.00

13

21

51.33

14

13

50.67

15

16

50.67

16

17

50.67

17

12

50.00

18

10

49.33

19

18

49.33

20

24

48.67

21

20

47.33

22

30

46.67

23

19

46.00

24

23

44.67

25

25

44.67

26

31

44.67