Tom once again—a bit late in the day, but I thought I’d get these up here as the games started in earnest.

Beatpaths seems much more confident about the Indianapolis-San Diego matchup than the conventional wisdom. ESPN’s inLine only gave Indianapolis a 3-point spread before the game started. Likewise, Beatpaths disagrees with the conventional wisdom about the Minnesota-Philadelphia matchup. The system gives Minnesota the edge, whereas the majority of commentators seem to give Philadelphia the advantage.

Tom here again—I’ve disaggregated the ranking changes week-on-week by individual team here. Compare with the normal ranking stability graph and you can see how high instability weeks correlate with messy areas in this graph. The middle area of this graph shows much greater clarity because of the stability in rankings during that period. Finally, the graph becomes messy again in the later weeks, especially for the mid-ranked teams.

The next step will be to break out each individual team’s ranking changes to see what we can learn by tracing the system’s placement of the team over the course of the season.

Tom here—the final week of the regular season calmed the rankings significantly. Only one “big mover” (teams moving 10+ ranks) this week, Denver, a team that has confounded the beatpaths system throughout the year.

I first started looking into ranking stability on the intuition that the system ought to become more accurate at placing teams relative to the field as more and more information was fed into it. As you can see from the logarithmic trendline superimposed on the chart, this seems to be borne out in general, although the week-on-week ranking changes are far more volatile than the trendline.

One thing that the aggregate week-on-week changes don’t capture is the individual ranking changes of each team individually. So while the system as a whole may not have had tremendous movement, simply looking at the system aggregate numbers doesn’t let us know how quickly (or not) the system was able to get the rank of each given team stabilized. The next step will be to look at how individual teams traversed the rankings, and whether they were accurately placed relatively quickly, or whether they remained volatile throughout the season.

Hey gang, Kenneth here. Well, the regular season’s over. The graph, and rankings, will probably be pretty stable from now on. You may get some movement at the top, but for most of the teams, this is how their seasons went. So let’s get to it…and a new team at the top!

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Beat TEN) After a huge winning streak, the Colts shake their beatloss to the Titans and land on top of the rankings. Looking back at how the Colts’ season has gone, it all seems so unlikely–not at all what you would have predicted at the start of the season. But Peyton and friends are on top and ready to go for the playoffs.	3	98.2 (27/28 - 0/28)
2		(Lost to MIA) Splitting with the Fish doesn’t hurt–they’ve got alternate routes into them. Not making the playoffs may be a blessing for the Jets, beatpaths-wise; they won’t have to face any teams that will loop away their win over the Titans, which is still keeping them up high.	1	100.0 (28/28 - 0/28)
3		(Lost to IND) Titans lose a beatwin over the Colts but still look good overall. The Titans seem like an odd team to me–I can’t get a handle on them. They’re mostly still new, still young, so they seem like playoff newcomers; I wonder how they’ll do on the big stage. They do have the veteran QB in Collins though, which might help.	2	94.8 (27/29 - 1/29)
4		(Beat CLE) Looks like Big Ben is going to be okay, which is good news for the Steelers. Here’s what I want to know–other than that, when’s the last time you heard of someone getting injured and out for the playoffs because they played in a meaningless Week 17 game? I mean, you always hear people warning about the danger, but you never hear what the standard example is. Is there one? I can’t think of one.	4	86.5 (22/26 - 3/26)
5		(Beat JAC) Slight re-ordering of the graph puts the Ravens slightly higher. Ryan’s been getting all the press this season, but Flacco’s been holding his own, too. Seems hard to guess which one I’d like better for the future–but then, I’m starting to believe that you can’t judge QBs after one season.	7	82.0 (20/25 - 4/25)
6		(Beat NYG) The Vikings gain a beatwin over the Carrs Giants, which let them stay where they are. I still don’t believe in Tavaris Jackson as a QB, but sometimes when a guy gets hot you have to ride him as far as you can. In Chicago we call it the Grossman Principle.	6	83.9 (22/28 - 3/28)
7		(Lost to MIN) So, the Giants finally have a beatloss. It’s been a long strange season for the Giants, and I don’t know about their chances without Wild Bill Plaxico, but they seem to be okay in the NFC. For what it’s worth, you can check out some of the comments in previous posts for discussion about what happens if you remove this game from the results. It removes the MIN=>NYG beatwin, but not much else changes.	5	79.6 (20/27 - 4/27)
8		(Beat NO) Carolina stays where they are on the win. Carolina seems to be in a good position right now–talented enough to be a contender, but not old enough that they’re at the end of their window. A Super Bowl win would be a nice mark in a lot of those players’ careers.	8	72.7 (15/22 - 5/22)
9		(Beat BUF) Well, everyone else is saying it, and beatpaths agrees–the Patriots got screwed. Although I guess the Jets were more screwed. But hey, that’s how it goes. Certainly New England fans can handle one season at home; I’m sure they’ll be back soon. And whatever it’s faults, the NFL playoffs are certainly more fair than the BCS. For the record, the Pats move up because the teams ahead of them–especially the Falcons and, um, Broncos–look worse.	13	77.8 (14/18 - 4/18)
10		(Lost to PHI) Splitting with the Eagles doesn’t do much in beatpaths–Dallas has an alternate path to Philly. It sure made them look bad, though. The Cowboys have so much talent, it’s hard to see how you could improve the team–unless you could get a safety who can defend “crazy”.	9	75.0 (18/26 - 5/26)
11		(Beat CHI) No change for the Texans on the win. Houston clearly has a lot of pieces in place–it seems like a matter of just filling in enough glue to make it all gel. Not playing in the AFC South would probably help things out, too.	11	74.0 (18/25 - 6/25)
12		(Beat KC) The Bengals win again, but move up more from others falling. If beatpaths counts for anything, it seems like Marvin Lewis should be retained. I don’t know about this team in the future–Chad and T.J. are getting old and could both be gone, and I doubt they’ll be better than the Ravens or Steelers anytime soon. But they definitely seem like they shouldn’t be ranked in with the truly bad teams of this season.	14	65.4 (17/26 - 9/26)
13		(Lost to SF) What an awful loss to end a disappointing season. It doesn’t hurt, though–there are 3 loops (PHI, ARI, and NO) that take it out for the Redskins, and they have alternate beatpaths to all of those teams. Overall, I don’t think Zorn did a bad job–it was a tough task to win in the NFC East this season.	16	61.5 (16/26 - 10/26)
14		(Beat DAL) Philly splits with the Cowboys, which restores their win over the Cardinals and lets them rise. We’ll see how they do now that they’re in the playoffs. Out of all the road “favorites”, they’re the only ones that the rankings have below their opponent.	19	57.1 (15/28 - 11/28)
15		(Beat STL) Nice season for the Falcons, but they lose some spots due to San Diego falling some (more on that later).	12	75.0 (7/14 - 0/14)
16		(Lost to OAK) Meanwhile, the Bucs lose to the Raiders–the Raiders!–and go up 2 spots! Crazy, right? Any guesses? I’ll give you a second while I talk about how badly the Bucs look now. I mean, 4 straight losses when you only needed 1! Yes, 3 of them were to playoff teams, but 3 losses is a lot and 1 of them was to, let me remind you, THE RAIDERS. Okay, if you said “Philly beating Dallas” you are absolutely right! But why? Well, last week Dallas was looping away its loss to the Cardinals through their win over the Eagles, but the season split took away that option. So instead, a 4 team beatloop formed (by the way, there are 9 of those this week–a lot!) between Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and–you guessed it–Tampa Bay! Thus, they removed their beatloss to the Cowboys and have no beatlosses left. Whew–got all that?	18	66.7 (5/15 - 0/15)
17		(Lost to HOU) Losing to Houston causes a 3 team beatloop between the Bears, Texans, and Colts. That means that the 4 team beatloop involving CHI=>IND that was looping away CAR=>CHI disappears, and the Carolina loss reappears for the Bears. As a fan, this stung, but the season went so much better than it could have that it’s hard to get too broken up over it. I think this team is going to rise next year.	15	47.2 (5/18 - 6/18)
18		(Beat SEA) Cardinals win, but it’s over someone in the NFC West so no one cares. I hope Arizona puts up a decent effort this weekend–since they got in so undeservedly, it’d be nice if they at least were more than a speedbump in Atlanta’s way this weekend. Maybe they could even win?	17	48.2 (13/28 - 14/28)
19		(Beat NYJ) Splitting with the Jets busts up a lot of loops which gives Miami back a few wins, but they’re all against bad West (AFC and NFC) teams, so not much improvement. I suppose I should rail against “undeserving Miami” here, too, but my heart’s not in it. Besides, they could be 10 spots better and beatpaths would still have them as an underdog this weekend.	20	44.4 (12/27 - 15/27)
20		(Beat WAS) Beating Washington loops out the loss to the Saints, and the 49ers jump over them and the plunging AFC West this week. I don’t know how long Iron Mike’s motivational tactics will work, but he seems to have these guys playing well, and the NFC West should be there for the taking, as always.	23	31.2 (7/24 - 16/24)
21		(Lost to SD) The season split with the Chargers removes a beatloop from the Patriots, but otherwise doesn’t hurt (in beatpaths, anway…). It’s the Dolphins splitting with the Jets that puts the MIA=>DEN back in play and really stomps on the Broncos this week. Tough way to end the season, and the Shanahan era. I realize the old regime might have gotten stale, but revitalizing the franchise seems like a huge task–who’s up to it?	10	32.8 (6/29 - 16/29)
22		(Lost to NE) Saints falling from above helps out a bit. Be a shame if the Bills have to leave upper NY in the near future. I hope the Toronto thing works out. It’d be better than, say, LA.	25	29.6 (6/27 - 17/27)
23		(Lost to CAR) If you missed it, losing to Carolina didn’t matter, but San Fran beating Washington took away a beatwin over the Niners and Oakland beating Tampa Bay took away a win over the Raiders, meaning the Saints meager support got weaker. There’s so much offensive talent here, I feel like this team is going to be boom or bust over the next few years–sometimes winning 12, sometimes winning 5.	22	28.6 (5/28 - 17/28)
24		(Lost to PIT) Well, at least they got some nice shots in on Roethlisberger. Still, their two lines seem to be in good shape, so maybe they can bounce back next year.	24	10.0 (0/15 - 12/15)
25		(Beat DEN) Once again, the MIA-NY season split causes the Chargers to fall under the Dolphins and drop. It’s odd–it seems like the AFC West got really hurt by the fact that the Jets lost to so many of them–it looped away a lot of the conference’s wins. So much so that going 8-8 in the AFC West looks worse than going 9-7 in the NFC West, as odd as that seems.	21	18.8 (2/24 - 17/24)
26		(Lost to BAL) Ugh. I know I’ve said it before, but good luck next year Jags fans. Your road is going to be tough.	27	20.0 (4/25 - 19/25)
27		(Beat TB) More verticality in the graph means more teams above the Raiders means a slight drop. The win got looped away, as you would expect. Say this for the Raiders–it’s never boring. Why doesn’t ESPN hover over the Raiders like they do the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants?	26	12.5 (0/24 - 18/24)
28		(Beat DET) Way to hold serve, Pack. I’m still scared of them next year, though. I think they’ve got a good base.	28	11.1 (3/27 - 24/27)
29		(Lost to CIN) I know these guys weren’t expected to do much, but they haven’t even shown the fiestiness you want out of a young, rebuilding team. I assume Herm is out; I think the next coach should be someone who can really get the team to play hard.	29	2.1 (0/24 - 23/24)
30		(Lost to ARI) I hear the people saying that Holmgren is in demand now that he’s out of Seattle. I just don’t believe it. Did people not pay attention to Seattle? Even when they were good they weren’t great.	30	3.8 (1/26 - 25/26)
31		(Lost to GB) Congratulations, Lions. You have managed to secure the “worst team of all time” prize. And, unlike those ‘76 Bucs, you don’t have a franchise Super Bowl win to comfort yourself with. Hey, maybe in 25 years, eh?	31	0.0 (0/25 - 25/25)
32		(Lost to ATL) And yet..somehow, the Rams managed to end up worse in beatpaths. Well, not somehow–the Rams were ranked under the Seahawks and the Lions weren’t, which is the sole reason. Meaning that the Rams’ real problem was that they played (and lost to) the wrong teams. Congratulations Rams. Good luck next season.	32	0.0 (0/26 - 26/26)

Here’s a quick runthrough of the entire 2008 season if we were to exclude all inter/intra matches. I’m also posting picks for each week, and the season performance compared to the current system’s season performance.

Week 1 had no games to exclude, so it’s identical to the Week 1 already posted - picks record 8-8.

Week 2:
Excluded Games: NO@WAS(24@29), BUF@JAC(20@16)
Picks: 11-4 (19-12) (even)
Rankings: CAR NO NE DAL DEN ARI NYG TEN GB PIT CHI BUF TB BAL PHI NYJ OAK SF JAC HOU IND WAS ATL SD CLE CIN SEA KC MIA STL MIN DET
Graph:

Week 3:
Excluded Games: DAL@GB(27@16), DET@SF(13:31)
Picks: 9-7 (28-19) (-1)
Rankings: DEN NYG DAL NO WAS TEN PHI CAR ARI BUF GB TB BAL NE PIT JAC OAK SF ATL SD MIN IND CHI NYJ CIN MIA HOU CLE SEA DET KC STL
Graph:

(more below the fold)
Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a different beatpath graph for end of the 2008 season.

I’m surprised at how clear this looks. This is based off of my brainstorming post last week and the ensuing discussion. What I did for this graph is I simply excluded all matches this season that were intra-conference or inter-conference seeding matches. Every team had two games excluded; a home game and an away game.

Here is the final week’s beatpath graph. The picks were 9-7 this week.

The pecking order amongst playoff teams seems rather clear; the benefits of a vertical graph.

Stay tuned for another graph variant.

Tom here with the “confidence” rankings of this week’s picks, based on comparing the BeatPower scores of each match-up. The picks took a beating last week, but nevertheless, the high confidence picks still did twice as well as the low confidence picks, even on a bad week overall. Here are this week’s:

As it turns out, given the number of upsets this past week, instability in the ranking has shot up again. Last week’s dip was only a temporary reprieve.

Cincinnati and Tampa Bay are the two “big movers” (teams moving 10+ ranking spots) this week. Also seeing significant shifts: Indianapolis, Carolina, and Dallas.

Kenneth here, saying welcome back to the Rankings! There’s been a lot of activity on the site lately, and a lot of talk about how to improve the formula for beatloop removal and ranking, but for now we’re using the old reliable. And speaking of old reliable…

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	BeatPower
1		(Lost to SEA) Guess Who! Yes, the Jets lost last week, but the three teams that were ahead of them (CAR, DAL, TB) all lost, too, and none of them were able to loop away their losses. So, yes, the Jets are lucky and in a flimsy position on top. But the way I look at it, if you were okay with them being 4th last week, you shouldn’t be upset that they’re first now.	4	98.2 (27/28 - 0/28)
2		(Beat PIT) Meanwhile, the Titans wish that someone could just loop away that loss to the Jets for them, please?	5	96.3 (26/27 - 1/27)
3		(Beat JAC) Beating Jacksonville helps, in a weird way. It caused a season split, which removed a 3 team loop between Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Indy–and instead, brought in a 4 team beatloop between Minnesota, Indy, Carolina, and Chicago. So, instead of the Vikings win getting rid of the Jaguars loss, it gets rid of the Chicago loss, which helps a great deal. Although they still would have lost it, because it gets looped away in a 4 team beatloop between Tampa, Chicago, Indy, and San Diego. Beatpaths can be confusing sometimes.	12	87.5 (23/28 - 2/28)
4		(Lost to TEN) Losing to the Titans doesn’t really hurt much. Not being under the some of the collapsing NFC teams helps, which lets them rise.	6	86.5 (22/26 - 3/26)
5		(Beat CAR) Beating the Panthers, plus other movers, finally puts the Giants at the top of the NFC. And yet they’re 5th overall. For awhile we were talking about how the NFC had finally caught up to the AFC in strength, but here we are at the end of the year and it looks like the AFC outclasses them again.	7	92.5 (17/20 - 0/20)
6		(Lost to ATL) The loss really doesn’t hurt them–it gets looped away from Carolina and Denver–and they hold steady otherwise, so they rise a bit while others fall. I’d like to take a moment here to disagree with site proprietor TT and say that I don’t think this is a good team, Tavaris Jackson will not keep this up, and I do hope that the Giants play to win this Sunday.	9	78.8 (17/26 - 2/26)
7		(Beat DAL) Beating the Cowboys puts a lot of NFC teams underneath the Ravens that really helps them and the other AFC teams above them out. Which is what leads to this rise.	13	80.4 (18/23 - 4/23)
8		(Lost to NYG) CRASH! It’s too bad that they fell this far; the game was really close, and they don’t appear to be significantly worse than the Giants. But, when you get a beatloss, you usually go down in the rankings.	1	77.5 (12/20 - 1/20)
9		(Lost to BAL) I find it odd that the Cowboys fell down an exact same amount as the Panthers, yet for mostly completely different reasons. Good luck next week, boys–you’re going to need it.	2	72.7 (15/22 - 5/22)
10		(Lost to BUF) Denver doesn’t really lose anything on the loss, but Atlanta beating Minnesota meant that they no longer have a beatwin over the Falcons. I have to admit that I was really rooting for the Bills and Chargers last week, mostly because I wanted to see a week 17 fight to the finish for it all. Still, a really awful few last weeks for the Broncos.	8	76.3 (10/19 - 0/19)
11		(Lost to OAK) Texans lose to Oakland, move up 3 spots. WHUUHH??? Well, the Raiders loss gets looped away, and the the two teams they’re directly under–Minnesota and Baltimore–both moved up this week, giving them room to grow, too.	14	69.0 (14/21 - 6/21)
12		(Beat MIN) Beating the Vikes gives the Falcons no beatlosses, but they only have visible beatwins over the Chargers and Packers, so their support is weak. Major props to Matt Ryan for trying the Elway to get the TD there, though. It didn’t work the way he planned, and almost cost them any score, but it looked cool.	10	75.0 (7/14 - 0/14)
13		(Beat ARI) Arizona still has a lot of teams underneath them, so the beatwin over them helps. Hardly seems fair to get credit for so little effort–do the Cardinals understand that they still have to play after the regular season is over?	17	70.6 (11/17 - 4/17)
14		(Beat CLE) Whoosh! You didn’t think that beating the Browns would help so much, did you? But it caused a season split, which meant that they busted up the loop between the Browns, Bengals, and Redskins, which put the Bengals on top of the Redskins, and THAT helped a lot. Regular commenter doktarr seems to think that the Bengals might have been an average team hurt by a good schedule this year–the Steelers effect, but without being able to rise to the challenge–and beatpaths seems to agree. I’m doubtful, but there’s no doubting that they had a tough schedule this year.	24	59.1 (13/22 - 9/22)
15		(Beat GB) Bears lose their beatwin over the Colts due to San Diego beating Tampa Bay. However, they also lose their beatlosses to Tampa and Carolina–the latter because a loop with Indy, Minnesota, Carolina, and Chicago reappeared because the season split between Indy and Jacksonville and blah blah blah. Listen. How great was that game! I was on my feet watching it the ENTIRE time. I’ll say one thing for the Bears, they don’t ever make it easy.	11	60.0 (5/15 - 2/15)
16		(Beat PHI) This is the kind of stuff that leads credence to the “Bengals aren’t bad” theory. How do you lose to Cincy one week and beat the Eagles the next? Not allowed. Redskins get a beatwin over the Eagles due to the sweep, which gives them some more support.	18	54.3 (12/23 - 10/23)
17		(Lost to NE) Another day, another beatloss. I’m sure Arizona is hoping it doesn’t snow there for their playoff game.	16	52.5 (9/20 - 8/20)
18		(Lost to SD) SPLAT! The loss to the Chargers loops away their wins over the Bears and Vikings (though the latter was already in a loop from the Broncos), and after you remove their splits with all of their division opponents, their remaining wins are against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Pack, and Lions. Not a particularly impressive bunch. What a huge collapse Gruden is presiding over there.	3	47.2 (5/18 - 6/18)
19		(Lost to WAS) Philly loses to the Redskins, and now are under their thumb.	15	45.7 (9/23 - 11/23)
20		(Beat KC) Oakland beating Houston loops away the Dolphins’ loss to the Texans, but they’re still under the Cardinals, so they don’t move much.	22	43.2 (7/22 - 10/22)
21		(Beat TB) Chargers lose their beatloss to the Saints (and others) for their efforts, which lets them rise a bit. Still under the Falcons, though.	25	40.6 (2/16 - 5/16)
22		(Beat DET) Of course, the flip side is that not having the Chargers underneath them hurts the Saints. Still, it’s got to feel good to squash the Lions so thoroughly–none of this 1 score BS that teams have been letting them get away with.	19	42.3 (9/26 - 13/26)
23		(Beat STL) Beating the Rams affects the 49ers almost not at all. As it should be.	23	30.0 (7/25 - 17/25)
24		(Lost to CIN) Buffalo beating Denver removes the last beatwin the Browns had, so they slide down the charts.	21	10.0 (0/15 - 12/15)
25		(Beat DEN) Meanwhile, removing the Browns beatloss doesn’t really help the Bills so much. I’m surprised that there’s so much talk of firing Jauron, but he’s not a great coach, and I don’t have any other ideas on how to improve the team other than “get Edwards to play well the entire season”.	26	26.8 (6/28 - 19/28)
26		(Beat HOU) Raiders beat a quality team, and still don’t get much out of it. I admit this game went right past me–how did this even happen?	27	7.5 (0/20 - 17/20)
27		(Lost to IND) Jaguars lose to Indy, so the universe is kept stable. They move up one due to GB falling.	28	17.3 (4/26 - 21/26)
28		(Lost to CHI) Speaking of whom, they fall back under the Jaguars due to the loss to the Bears breaking up a 3 team beatloop. That result brings them back down the graph.	20	11.1 (3/27 - 24/27)
29		(Lost to MIA) My song remains the same: Do Not Trust Tyler Thigpen After A Half Season. Hey, maybe I can make all of my rankings reference Led Zeppelin lyrics.	30	2.1 (0/24 - 23/24)
30		(Beat NYJ) They came from the land of the ice and snow, from the midnight sun where the hot springs blow. Of course beating the Jets would cause the Seahawks to fall a spot! What are you, crazy? Okay, here’s the scoop, as far as I can tell: the re-emergence of the Pack as the league’s whipping boy means that there are just that many more teams on top of the Seahawks, as opposed to the Chiefs who are under less. That gives the Chiefs an advantage…I think.	29	3.8 (1/26 - 25/26)
31		(Lost to NO) So last week, I mentioned that I doubted we had a Lions fan reading the site. Turns out that we have TWO, at least! That makes me feel good, for some reason; like I am a traveler of both time and space, to be where I have been. Lions move up a spot more or less for the same reasons the Chiefs do, as they’re not under the Seahawks and the Rams are.	32	0.0 (0/25 - 25/25)
32		(Lost to SF) The thing is, this team has wins over good teams this season. I have to imagine that there’s some base to build with here, but what is it? Oh, and also: I’m packing my bags for the Misty Mountains, where the spirits go.	31	0.0 (0/26 - 26/26)