And, here we are, closing the books on another NFL season! This one has a much more satisfying outcome than last season, when the NY Jets was making everyone here gnash their teeth. Although I would argue that this season repairs last season a bit, as both the NY Jets and Brett Favre ended up being a wee bit better than people thought they were at the end of last season.

New Orleans defeats Indianapolis, and sits atop by the rankings by a healthy margin. They have beatpaths to every team in the league except for San Diego, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and (oddly) the NY Giants. Loops after the jump!

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As Kenneth and Tom have shown, New Orleans is very slightly favored in the Super Bowl by the Beatpaths system. There’s no beatpath relationship between the two teams, however, and Indianapolis had the better record with one more win – Isaacson-Tarbell picks Indianapolis. So the ITB pick is Indianapolis.

Now that it’s 3rd and 5 in the 4th with about three and a half minutes left, and Manning is looking a little bit chokey, I’m not sure that’s really how it will work out, but there it is… and…. pick six. Zoinks!

Hey folks, Tom here with the analysis of ranking changes from the conference championship games. No big movers based on the results of the championships.

The graph is getting more stable, mostly as a function of fewer games being played each week. Few upsets means that the ranking changes result in much less variance.

Pick Confidence – Super Bowl

By any standard, New Orleans vs. Indianapolis is a close call, and Beatpaths agrees. The system gives New Orleans a slight edge as explained by Kenneth here.

Here you go, guys! The last rankings before the final ones! There is actually some movement this week, although nothing earth-shattering. As for next week, I’ll leave it to TT to say for sure but my read is that the Saints are playing for a beatpath and the Colts aren’t. More motivation for y’all, N’awlins! Who dat?

You can find this week’s graph here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		(Bye) Hey, look! The Chargers are still on top. Still just barely ahead of the Saints. Overall, I’m surprised that a team with so many apparent weaknesses did so well this season.	1	82.68 (83 – 0) / 127 #1 – #9
2		(Beat MIN) The win over the Vikings is looped away in a 3 team loop with the Dallas, which was already looped away, so no benefit for the Saints here. I’m happy for Saints fans, but they did not look particularly good in that game. They got lucky.	2	82.28 (82 – 0) / 127 #1 – #10
3		(Beat NYJ) The Colts get the season split, which gives them back some invisible paths but nothing that shows up in the graph. They are much closer to the Saints, though; this game should be a toss-up, essentially, from Beatpaths view.	3	81.89 (81 – 0) / 127 #1 – #8
4		(Bye) No change in the Broncos position. The win over New England is their big claim to fame this year; without it, they’d have much less prestige.	4	75.59 (66 – 1) / 127 #2 – #11
5		(Bye) Here’s the big question I have about the Patriots from this season: do they really do that whole parade thing in New England, like they do in the Visa commercial? I mean, the whole nine yards, with the horse and cannon and everything? I’m assuming it’s fake, but I don’t really know, and the commercial is stupid (well, extra stupid) if it is fake.	5	74.02 (64 – 3) / 127 #4 – #12
6		(Bye) Since the Cowboys’ win over the Saints was already looped away from the Giants, and their loss to the Vikings was looped away by the Panthers, the extra beatloop didn’t cost the Cowboys any, or gain them anything either. So, they stay right where they are. Like so many teams this week.	6	74.02 (62 – 1) / 127 #2 – #13
7		(Bye) In the past few weeks I’ve come to the feeling that either decision is going to be the wrong one for the Eagles regarding McNabb. If they trade him, they’re not going to do as well with Kolb, but I don’t know that he’ll be good enough for them if he stays. I guess that means you should get on with and go with Kolb, but I have trouble trading away a Pro Bowl QB.	7	70.47 (56 – 4) / 127 #4 – #14
8		(Lost to NO) No big change for the Vikings, either (they lost an edge somewhere, not sure where). I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team that fumble-happy. This loss is going to sting for awhile, I think. Now we have to listen to Brett Favre Watch, again. Great.	8	65.35 (39 – 0) / 127 #1 – #20
9		(Bye) I don’t have anything much to say about Falcons present, right now. But how about Falcons past? Apparently Michael Vick thinks he still belongs in the top tier of quarterbacks. Count me as one of the people whose big problem with that is the word “still”.	9	64.57 (49 – 12) / 127 #8 – #15
10		(Bye) I guess it’s nice for Steelers Nation that they don’t have to worry about having to face Cowher this season. They can save that drama explosion for another year.	10	60.24 (26 – 0) / 127 #1 – #21
11		(Lost to IND) Hey, guess what! Some teams DID have big shifts this week! Not the Jets, though. But they were part of a very important happening this week. See, the season split took away their victory over the Colts at the 2 team level. That means that the loop that was formed before, JAC=>NYJ=>IND=>JAC, didn’t appear at the 3 team level, and thus JAC=>NYJ continued through the process. If you’ve been reading all season, that game might sound familiar to you. The JAC=>NYJ game got removed eventually in two 4 team beatloops: NYJ=>CIN=>CLE=>JAC=>NYJ and NYJ=>CAR=>ARI=>JAC=>NYJ. The first just removes one of the Jets victories over Cincy, but they have another; the second, though, removes their beatpath to Carolina. It still doesn’t hurt them enough to drop them anywhere, but you can be sure this will come up later.	11	58.27 (35 – 14) / 127 #9 – #19
12		(Bye) Meanwhile, nothing particularly interesting happened to the Titans. Here is where I wished I had watched more of the Pro Bowl, so I could say something about Vince Young, or something.	12	56.69 (24 – 7) / 127 #7 – #22
13		(Bye) I guess I’m curious what the next move is for the Bengals. It seems like they need more WRs, I guess, because Ochocinco won’t be around forever, and they’re shallow even with him; but I have to imagine that there’s a more pressing need.	13	56.69 (32 – 15) / 127 #10 – #21
14		(Bye) Funny moment of the Pro Bowl that I did catch; at one point Aaron Rodgers (I think it was him) called a play, and then one of the wide receivers looked at him like “what?” And Rodgers just kind of sighed and yelled, “a post! Run a post!”. Mighta been Matt Schaub. Anyway, it was funny.	14	53.54 (27 – 18) / 127 #12 – #22
15		(Bye) The aforementioned loop (ARI=>JAC=>NYJ=>CAR=>ARI) costs the Cardinals their win over the Jaguars, but gives them back a win over the Bears. Even though the Bears are ranked lower than the Jags, they give more support because they have more (lousy) teams under them. That helps the Cards, and they move up.	17	52.36 (16 – 10) / 127 #8 – #24
16		(Bye) I hear that the Giants are considering hiring (former Chicago Offensive Coordinator) Ron Turner as their QB coach. I feel like that’s ironic, but I can’t actually explain why.	15	51.18 (5 – 2) / 127 #3 – #29
17		(Bye) Getting out from under the Cardinals removes a lot of teams from on top of the Jags, so they move up from that.	19	51.18 (4 – 1) / 127 #2 – #28
18		(Bye) Texans didn’t actually change from last week, it’s just stuff happening to other teams that moves them. Now that he won the Pro Bowl MVP, do you think Matt Schaub will skip it next year (if asked)?	16	50.39 (2 – 1) / 127 #2 – #30
19		(Bye) How come Ray Rice wasn’t this good last season? Kid’s got game.	20	46.85 (15 – 23) / 127 #13 – #24
20		(Bye) Okay, check this: Last week, there were two 5 team beatloops, of BUF=>CAR=>ARI=>ARI=>CHI=>CLE=>BUF and BUF=>CAR=>ARI=>ARI=>DET=>CLE=>BUF. But both of those depended on CAR=>ARI, which as we saw before is now knocked out in a 4 team beatloop (NYJ=>CAR=>ARI=>JAC=>NYJ), so those loops are gone. Long story short is that BUF=>CAR is back in the graph, which boosts Buffalo up a bit.	21	46.85 (7 – 15) / 127 #9 – #28
21		(Bye) Somewhere above the Dolphins there’s a redundant path that is causing the Dolphins to drop; I think it might be IND=>MIA, which was looped away last week from the Jets, but now isn’t. That one extra edge above them, though, is pretty much the reason for the drop (besides the Bills looking better). But the Ravens, Bills, and Dolphins are all really close.	18	46.46 (6 – 15) / 127 #9 – #29
22		(Bye) Niners were basically tied with the Panthers last week, but they look about the same and Panthers don’t, so they move up one. Yes, I’m really stretching into the minutiae here.	23	45.28 (14 – 26) / 127 #15 – #24
23		(Bye) So, I presume Moore is the answer in Carolina? What are they going to with Delhomme?	22	42.91 (4 – 22) / 127 #11 – #30
24		(Bye) Coming up is something everyone can enjoy: what crazy thing will Al Davis do this offseason? Can anything top Darius Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree?	24	42.52 (0 – 19) / 127 #11 – #32
25		(Bye) I’ve actually been following the Bears (naturally), so I have something to say. I’m very worried about the Martz hire. His previous systems don’t fit the Bears’ personnel at all, and while he’s smart enough to be able to design something that will work, I don’t know that he has the humility to do it. And if he doesn’t, I think the Bears are doomed.	26	37.80 (10 – 41) / 127 #18 – #25
26		(Bye) There’s actually a big drop here–the Browns are back under the Bears, which gives them a lot more edge above them–but not enough to actually move them very far. I guess step one for Holmgren is to trade for Green Bay’s backup quarterback? Surely he’s not going to pick up the Seahawks’ backup. Right?	25	32.28 (3 – 48) / 127 #19 – #29
27		(Bye) See, that’s how bad Seattle was this year. They gained a large amount of ground on the Browns, but couldn’t overtake them in the rankings. You can argue at what point the Beatpaths “League Of Crap” teams start–it’s probably right after the Raiders, honestly–but it sure seems like there’s a real difference starting here.	27	31.50 (2 – 49) / 127 #19 – #31
28		(Bye) Supposedly the Tigers are going to be bad this year, too. My plan to destroy all Detroit sports team is working! Just think if I actually did anything.	28	29.13 (0 – 53) / 127 #19 – #32
29		(Bye) I suppose we’ll have to wait for the draft to see, but right now it’s hard to see the Chiefs being markedly better next season.	29	25.98 (2 – 63) / 127 #23 – #30
30		(Bye) The exciting news for me in St. Louis is that some railways connecting to the city were awarded high speed rail funds. If they improve things enough, they can make it even easier for opposing team’s fans to come in and buy all their tickets.	31	24.41 (0 – 65) / 127 #22 – #32
31		(Bye) The Redskins were in a virtual tie with the Rams for thirtieth last week, but the Browns going under the Bears killed that dream. Good luck Shanny!	30	19.69 (1 – 78) / 127 #26 – #31
32		(Bye) Looks like the winner of the Beatpaths total loser title this year is going to be the Bucs. Too bad–they seemed like they had promise and really tried this year; I hate to dump on a team like that.	32	15.35 (0 – 88) / 127 #27 – #32

Not many changes here since there were only two games. We’ve got both winners fairly high up in the graph. It looks like we’ll have New Orleans very slightly favored over Indianapolis. However, if you ignore the Week 16 and 17 results for both teams, then Indianapolis would be favored. Loops are after the jump.

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Well, the best weekend of the NFL Season was a bit of a fizzle, at least in terms of excitement level. Maybe next year, eh?

ITB and Isaacson-Tarbell were 3-1 last week, while Beatpaths was 2-2.

Hey folks, Tom here with the ranking analysis for last week’s divisional round playoff games. No big movers this week, and the overall numbers stay quite the same as last week.

As you can see, the stability remains the same as last week, which is expected given the small number of games, and the absorption of upset wins last week by beatloops. Because there’s no big mover this week (a team moving 10+ ranks) you can see that the variance has gone down compared to last week. This week has the lowest variance of any week this season. Given that there are only two games coming up this Sunday, we might expect even lower numbers for stability and variance, especially if there are no upsets.

Pick Confidence – Conference Championships

Last week the two low confidence picks were upsets, while the two high confidence picks went as expected. This week the higher confidence pick is Indianapolis over the NY Jets, while the matchup the system sees as closer is New Orleans over Minnesota.

As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results as they roll in.

Holy smokes, I forgot to put an intro to this thing! Well, this is Kenneth, and here’s what I have to say about the rankings. Not too much movement this week…and what movement there is might seem counter-intuitive to you. But enough preview–on to the rankings!

You can see the graph here.

Rank	Team	Notes	Last Week	EdgePower
1		(Lost to NYJ) Oofah. Well, let’s get this out of the way–the loss to the Jets is looped away by a win over the Dolphins in a 3 team beatloop. I think the worst part of this loss is how ineffectual Tomlinson looked; it’s sad to see a great runner on the downside of his career.	1	83.47 (83 – 0) / 124 #1 – #8
2		(Beat ARI) Opposite of oofah! Saints walloped the Cardinals, figuratively and a little literally, too. They already had a beatpath to Arizona, though, so not much change. You know what I liked? How a run that is still 90% finesses causes commentators to gush over how hard Reggie Bush is running. Oh, and the continued rise of the flea flicker; anything that makes the NFL more like Tecmo Super Bowl is a-okay in my book.	2	83.06 (82 – 0) / 124 #1 – #9
3		(Beat BAL) Same as it ever was. Did anyone really think they were going to be hurt by laying off before hand? I mean, I guess I did…but I’m not going to admit that now. OOOOOPPPSS!!!	3	81.45 (78 – 0) / 124 #1 – #8
4		(Bye) Smilin’ Josh McDaniels (I’m making that his new official nickname) rises up another spot, due to its previous tenant losing this past weekend (FORESHADOWING and/or REFERENCE TO LAST WEEK). The Nolan resignation/firing seems weird. I get that the defense didn’t end up the way it started. But then, did they think what happened in the first half was a fluke, and Nolan couldn’t put it together? That seems odd…but I’ve made that accusation about this regime before.	5	76.21 (66 – 1) / 124 #2 – #10
5		(Bye) I’m also curious about the change in DC here, too. It’s certainly true that the Patriots D did not do well this season and needs improvement. But how much of that is problems with the personnel? I admit that I don’t know the team as well as I used to, but it seems like they’ve lost a lot of people from the defenses that used to impose their will on people.	6	74.60 (64 – 3) / 124 #4 – #11
6		(Lost to MIN) Dallas loops away the loss to Minnesota through a 3 team beatloop with Carolina (hey! Did you remember that Carolina beat the Vikings?). The worst part of this loss to me, if you’re a Cowboys fan, is that they seemed to be the better team very early and made several killer mistakes that basically prevented them from getting a lead. Now, it’s possible the game ends the same way, but I wonder if that game goes Dallas’ way if they have a lead to work with.	4	74.19 (61 – 1) / 124 #2 – #13
7		(Bye) Um…anything happening here? In Philadelphia? All I can think of is Marvin Harrison, and that’s not really relevant. Oh, I guess maybe Brian Westbrook is retiring? I think they’re okay if he does; he hasn’t seemed to be giving them much in recent years.	7	70.56 (55 – 4) / 124 #4 – #14
8		(Beat DAL) Hooray, nothing happens for the Vikings! Well, almost nothing, they do regain a sweet beatwin over Cleveland that gives them just enough oomph to vault the Falcons. I don’t like their chances this week, though–not only are they bad on the road, but I think the SuperDome is going to be so rocking that they are going to be completely out of sync. Also, one other comment: I saw the first TD pass Favre threw, and yes, it was a perfect throw on the money. But it’s also a throw that if the corner turns his head and looks for the ball at all, should be knocked away or intercepted. Why doesn’t anyone mention this? I mean, it’s not like Favre put it where no one else could get it…that pass could have easily been nothing, as good of placement as it was.	9	65.32 (38 – 0) / 124 #1 – #20
9		(Bye) I didn’t have anything to say about the Falcons, so I took a couple minutes to look up Family Guy clips on youtube and then came back here. It was surprisingly unhelpful.	8	64.52 (48 – 12) / 124 #8 – #15
10		(Bye) The lack of things to say about the Falcons goes double for the Steelers. Let’s see…what do we think they’re doing this offseason? I would say strengthen the OL, but I would have said that about 3 years running and they’re not doing it, so…defense?	11	60.08 (25 – 0) / 124 #1 – #21
11		(Beat SD) Okay, I hear you: what? The Jets beat the top ranked team and go down a spot in the rankings? What gives you ask? I’m curious too. Here’s what I’ve found out: they lost a few teams from under them, because of a team below them that lost support. FORE–oh screw it, it’s the Panthers! The Panthers dropped this week due to losing a beatwin over the Cardinals. I know, I know, I’ll explain it all when I get to those teams. Meanwhile, for the Jets–kudos, but I don’t like their chances this week. I know their defense is good, but is it going to be that much better than the Ravens? Likewise, is their passing game and/or power running game? And we saw the Ravens basically flounder around and bow out last week against the Colts…so what makes the Jets different?	10	59.68 (38 – 14) / 124 #9 – #18
12		(Bye) Let’s see what Google News has for the Tennessee Titans! Hrm, let’s see…oh, looks like Kenny Britt has been arrested. Fantastic.	12	56.45 (23 – 7) / 124 #7 – #22
13		(Bye) Funny how there were lots of questions over whether Wade Phillips and/or Norv Turner would be retained following disappointing ends to promising seasons, but nobody was wondering about Marvin Lewis. Is the bar so low in Cincinnati that making the playoffs cements your job as coach? Or have people in the NFL just forgotten about the Bengals?	13	56.45 (31 – 15) / 124 #10 – #21
14		(Bye) A big screw you to the Packers for not letting my Bears interview their QB coach for the OC job. Did you know that, for the purposes of having to let people interview, a coordinator job is not considered a promotion over a positional coach in the NFL? I was unaware. Other things I am unaware of: whether “screw you” makes this a family-unfriendly site; whether we care.	15	53.23 (26 – 18) / 124 #12 – #22
15		(Bye) Trying to figure out the subtle changes that put the Giants up two spots can be maddening. Or it can be as simple as looking at the graph and seeing that the Chiefs look better, in picture at least if not really much so in ranking.	17	51.21 (5 – 2) / 124 #3 – #29
16		(Bye) Let’s see, the Draft Tek User Submitted Team Needs section lists the Texans’ biggest need as a cornerback. Fair enough, although I think the real need is “stop whoever in Indianapolis is turning street free agents into frickin’ Marvin Harrison”.	16	50.40 (2 – 1) / 124 #2 – #30
17		(Lost to NO) Okay, what? Arizona loses (albeit to the #2 team) and GAINS ground? Howzit happen? Well, first off, the Saints already had a path to the Cardinals so that didn’t really hurt much. The key was what happened Up North. Remember how I said that there was a 3 team beatloop between Minnesota, Dallas, and Carolina? That removed CAR=>MIN at the 3 team loop level. Thus, a 4 team beatloop from last week was broken up: MIN=>CLE=>BUF=>CAR=>MIN. That meant that CLE=>BUF=>CAR survived later in the graph…all the way down to the 5 team level, where it gets looped away in two 5 team beatloops: ARI=>CHI=>CLE=>BUF=>CAR=>ARI and ARI=>DET=>CLE=>BUF=>CAR=>ARI . Thus, CAR=>ARI disappears, and the Cardinals are no longer under the Panthers (among other teams). That gives them a boost, and they rise in the rankings. Given all that…this game is why I think the Vikings are toast–I attribute most of what stopped the Cardinals O to the SuperDome crowd, and I don’t see the Vikings compensating for it.	20	50.40 (11 – 10) / 124 #8 – #26
18		(Bye) The Dolphins only support right now is the Panthers, and since they’re falling, the Fish Marine Mammals are falling. Fun fact I just discovered: Aquarian does not mean “of the water”, exactly. Has more to do with Zodiac stuff. Good to know in case you’re ever writing up rankings description and don’t want to look like an idiot when you’re fishing for a cheap joke.	14	46.77 (6 – 14) / 124 #9 – #29
19		(Bye) The Jaguars are held directly under the Cardinals, and so when they shed off teams on top of them, the Jaguars did the same–and rose accordingly.	24	46.77 (4 – 12) / 124 #9 – #28
20		(Lost to IND) This win gets rolled into a season sweep, but the first win wasn’t looped away, so no big change for the Ravens. Dear Ravesn: get a big-time receiver. Two if Mason retires. No, TO doesn’t count. I’d suggest instead seeing if Brandon Marshall is available.	19	46.37 (14 – 23) / 124 #13 – #24
21		(Bye) Wow, back to the future! Bills hiring Chan Gailey as head coach. I guess he got a raw deal in Dallas, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to do well in Buffalo. Although, I’m not sure that anyone would do well in Buffalo. Meanwhile, it appears that the best way to get hired for a coaching job in the NFL is to interview for the Bears *grumble grumble*	21	45.16 (3 – 15) / 124 #9 – #29
22		(Bye) Okay, so all that stuff about the Cardinals shaking off the Panthers obviously had the opposite effect on Carolina–they lost a lot of their support. They only have two teams under them right now, Washington and Tampa.	18	43.55 (4 – 20) / 124 #11 – #30
23		(Bye) I saw this week that Peter King thinks that San Francisco will draft Tim Tebow IN THE FIRST ROUND. His reasoning: Mike Singletary did not throw a parade for buy a cute little puppy for write in his diary 1000 times Mrs. say that they absolutely loved Alex Smith, but they WILL absolutely love Tebow when they gaze lovingly into his eyes pull an all-night bible study together totally remain chaste while they wait for the right one together evaluate him at the combine. I guess this more of a “Peter King is crazy/I hate Tim Tebow” comment than a 49ers one, but what do you want? This team has been out of it for weeks now.	22	43.55 (10 – 26) / 124 #15 – #28
24		(Bye) So apparently it’s not a given yet that Cable is coming back? Maybe Al Davis was waiting for the Buffalo position to get filled, so that he knew he’d be the only belle of the ball. News flash Mr. Davis: that doesn’t make you Cinderella, that makes you Last Call.	23	42.34 (0 – 19) / 124 #11 – #32
25		(Bye) And hey, how about those Browns! Whoa, how about these Browns? They moved up in the world! Well, the world of Beatpaths. Reason? If you’ve been paying attention, you know the answer: Talking Heads songs covered by Muppets the fallout from MIN=>DAL that created 2 5 team beatloops. Those loops removed CHI=>CLE and DET=>CLE from the graph. Shedding the beatloss to Chicago just gets them out from under them. They were already out from under Detroit, but it was through a longer beatloop last week: CLE=>KC=>WAS=>TB=>SEA=>DET=>CLE, 6 teams. Since CLE=>DET got removed in a higher loop, that means that CLE=>KC=>WAS=>TB re-emerges. Not only that–the delayed removal of CLE=>BUF that made all this possible (see Arizona’s entry) forms another 5 team beatloop this week, TB=>SEA=>DET=>CLE=>BUF=>TB, which means that Cleveland doesn’t have to suffer under Detroit either. All in all, a decent week for a bottom feeding team that isn’t playing anymore.	30	39.52 (3 – 29) / 124 #14 – #29
26		(Bye) The Gaines Adams thing was another punch in the gut for the organization and its fans in a whole season full of them. Obviously, this is worse than any particular lost game. The worst thing is that I know somewhere down the road–maybe a few months from now, maybe a few years–some Bears fans will want to rip on Jerry Angelo and start using the trade as ammunition against him. You’d hope for better, but I’m not counting on it.	27	37.50 (6 – 37) / 124 #17 – #29
27		(Bye) I thought about mentioning that third 5 team beatloop here, but I didn’t want to paint an incomplete picture of the Browns. So, yeah, the Seahawks mostly miss out on all the fun, and don’t get a beatwin over the Lions, but then, they’re not under the Bucs either.	29	31.45 (2 – 48) / 124 #19 – #31
28		(Bye) Ah, Detroit. You were so close actually having a beatwin again! Also, I just heard that as of right now the Red Wings are out of the playoffs, so it seems like my plan from last week is well underway.	31	30.65 (0 – 48) / 124 #18 – #32
29		(Bye) Kansas City doesn’t move up much in the graph, but they now have beatwins, which is nice. I’m thinking of making a trip to Kansas City this summer. Does anyone have any suggestions on things to do in Kansas City besides catch a Royals game?	28	29.84 (2 – 52) / 124 #21 – #30
30		(Bye) The Redskins were just below the Giants and Panthers, but due to everything discussed above, they are now below the Chiefs. Not good, and it accounts for their drop in the ratings. By the way, if you heard Casey Kasum’s voice in your head when you read that, could you let me know? I’m wondering if it’s just me.	25	23.79 (1 – 66) / 124 #24 – #31
31		(Bye) Rams hop up a spot because the Bucs fall under the Skins. I can tell you that many Rams fans feel much better this week, but that’s more because St. Louis has been a more balmy 40-ish degrees recently as opposed to I-could-live-in-Chicago-and-get-this 18 and such.	32	23.79 (0 – 65) / 124 #22 – #32
32		(Bye) It was a little weird, and sad, to see a video tribute of Gaines Adams on somewhere (NFL Network, I think) that kept talking about him as a Chicago Bear but only had highlights of him as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Sad story, still. It’s probably not the time for this but I wonder how much correlation there is here–how having an enlarged heart is something that gives a gifted athlete an edge, even as it poses a great risk. Or am I competely wrong here–does a larger heart help you in athletics?	26	19.35 (0 – 76) / 124 #25 – #32

Slightly more predictable week, and more boring, too, at least up until the last game. IT and ITB were 3-1 for the week, while Beatpaths was 2-2.

The NY Jets weren’t quite able to loop away San Diego, so it is still seen as an upset. And Minnesota wasn’t quite able to develop a beatwin over Dallas, so the graph looks largely the same, but there are some subtle differences. More on that later this week as we examine the rankings. Loops after the jump!

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Hello folks, sorry I’m late and posting in the middle of the divisional round, but here is the analysis of the rankings after the Wildcard round. One big mover as a result of the Wildcard games, and that is Denver—a good illustration of how seemingly unrelated games can affect the system’s overall assessment of a team.

Despite all of last week’s games being counted as upsets by Beatpaths, the ranks don’t change a great deal. The ranks remain fairly stable and the variance is down, despite Denver’s rapid ascent from 19th to 5th. Given that there were only four games, we might expect that the rankings would be more stable. We’ll see if the ranking changes after the four games of the divisional round are comparable.

Pick Confidence – Divisional Round

TT already gave the official Beatpaths picks for the Divisional round. Below is the ‘confidence’ of the Beatpaths system in its picks, based on a comparison of the ‘EdgePower’ scores of each team. Compared to last week, the system is about twice as confident in the picks for this weekend.

As usual, I’ll return to fill in the results.