Beatpaths

And, here we are, closing the books on another NFL season! This one has a much more satisfying outcome than last season, when the NY Jets was making everyone here gnash their teeth. Although I would argue that this season repairs last season a bit, as both the NY Jets and Brett Favre ended up [...]

As Kenneth and Tom have shown, New Orleans is very slightly favored in the Super Bowl by the Beatpaths system. There’s no beatpath relationship between the two teams, however, and Indianapolis had the better record with one more win – Isaacson-Tarbell picks Indianapolis. So the ITB pick is Indianapolis.
Now that it’s 3rd and 5 in [...]

Hey folks, Tom here with the analysis of ranking changes from the conference championship games. No big movers based on the results of the championships.

The graph is getting more stable, mostly as a function of fewer games being played each week. Few upsets means that the ranking changes result in much less variance.
Pick [...]

Not many changes here since there were only two games. We’ve got both winners fairly high up in the graph. It looks like we’ll have New Orleans very slightly favored over Indianapolis. However, if you ignore the Week 16 and 17 results for both teams, then Indianapolis would be favored. Loops are after the jump.

Well, the best weekend of the NFL Season was a bit of a fizzle, at least in terms of excitement level. Maybe next year, eh?
ITB and Isaacson-Tarbell were 3-1 last week, while Beatpaths was 2-2.

Isaacson-Tarbell
Beatpaths
Isaacson-Tarbell-Beatpaths

Record So Far
161-103
169-95
168-96

Last Week
3-1
2-2
3-1

NY Jets (11-7) at Indianapolis (15-2): Well, the NY Jets already beat Indianapolis, at Indianapolis!! Right?? [...]

Holy smokes, I forgot to put an intro to this thing! Well, this is Kenneth, and here’s what I have to say about the rankings. Not too much movement this week…and what movement there is might seem counter-intuitive to you. But enough preview–on to the rankings!
You can see the graph here.

Rank
Team
Notes
Last Week
EdgePower

1

(Lost [...]

Slightly more predictable week, and more boring, too, at least up until the last game. IT and ITB were 3-1 for the week, while Beatpaths was 2-2.
The NY Jets weren’t quite able to loop away San Diego, so it is still seen as an upset. And Minnesota wasn’t quite able to develop a beatwin over [...]

Hello folks, sorry I’m late and posting in the middle of the divisional round, but here is the analysis of the rankings after the Wildcard round. One big mover as a result of the Wildcard games, and that is Denver—a good illustration of how seemingly unrelated games can affect the system’s overall assessment of [...]

Welcome to the best weekend of the NFL Season!
Pretty straightforward week of picks, overall. The Vegas line has the home teams winning, so does Isaacson-Tarbell.
On to the picks. Isaacson-Tarbell was 1-3 last week, while Beatpaths and ITB were 0-4. That’s probably the worst we’ve done on Wildcard Weekend, because up until this year it seemed [...]

Ack! 0-4 on the picks this week, with a crazy slate of games. I’m not sure how people will explain away New England’s performance. And three cheers for an excellent fourth game – that’s what the playoffs should be about.
Check out the graph. Most teams moved in accordance with their victories, but Baltimore still has [...]